Well, I guess I don't really "care," but I do think that was an excellent
and well-researched post. I question both Yale and Princeton being included
in the top 20, but to be honest I have nary a clue as to which one will turn
back into a pumpkin. It's too much to ask that they both do, at least this
year.
Harvard looks good on paper. Again. But as long as Ronn Tomassoni
continues to channel the spirit of Brian McCutcheon ("dump and change"), the
Crimson will be erratic (to be charitable). As for the aforementioned's
alma mater, I do not think Cornell will make any sort of move in the
standings until after January, although with goaltending stability I do
think they are a serious challenger in the ECAC post-season. Schafer seems
to have adopted an NHL strategy: don't worry about the first two months,
figure out who you have and what they are worth, and then gear it all to the
PS rush. Of course, Lovable Jack does the same thing over at BU, except
their idea of slumming through the first half of the year is .750, while
Cornell's is .500 punctuated by 11-0 losses in even-numbered seasons, and
leave us not forget those fun trips to Schenectedy.
The RPI team we saw in the playoff last season, now seasoned, has no
business finishing lower than third (below Clarkson and the Yale-Princeton
non-melon (or gourd. Or squash. Whatever). I know, I know, one major loss
and one major defection up front, but they kept the more talented Tapper,
and the goaltending twins should keep them in every game.
I think Clarkson will walk away with the ECAC title, and finish in the top 5
nationally. But I always think that.
Colgate supasseth all understanding. They and Vermont are darkhorses to
have improbably strong seasons.
My "You Don't Care" ECAC predictions:
1. Clarkson
2. RPI
3. Harvard
4. Yale
5. Cornell
6. Princeton
7. Vermont
8. SLU
9. Colgate
10. Brown
11. Dartmouth
12. Union
TBRW prediction:
1. Yale
2. Clarkson
3t. RPI
3t. Vermont
5. Harvard
6. St. Lawrence
7. Brown
8. Princeton
9. Dartmouth
10. Cornell
11. Colgate
12. Union
Full story with numbers and everything under the ECAC Predictions --> 1999
links, http://www.spiritone.com/~kepler/tbrw.html
-- Greg
-------- REPLY, Original message follows --------
Date: Monday, 14-Sep-98 08:57 PM
From: Geoff Howell \ Internet: ([log in to unmask])
To: Hockey-L \ Internet: ([log in to unmask])
Subject: Another meaningless non-poll
OK, I can't blame you if you don't care... but here is my pre-season top 20.
I reserve the right to change my mind between now and the start of the
season, but I feel reasonably comfortable with what I have here (of course,
I've felt that way before and been horribly wrong in my picks).
I spoke with a bunch of coaches, reviewed recruiting lists (relying in part
on USHR and in part on word of mouth) and reviewed last year's stats (league
only so that I could ignore scheduling discrepancies).
1) North Dakota: The Sioux lost three key players; Matt Henderson, Curtis
Murphy and Mitch Vig. Murphy's loss is obviously the most significant.
They have the best goalie and set of forwards in the west and a respectable
group of defensemen. No major question marks for the team that was No. 1 or
2 for most of last season.
Top Rookie: Travis Roche
Hobey Candidate: Blake, but he'll never win.
2) Michigan: Flip a coin between the Wolverines and Eagles. Or, based on
the outcome of the last time they met, go with the Wolverines. Blackburn
should be fine in goal -- the only real question is how to make up for
Muckalt's and Herr's offense. I figure that all of those freshmen, now
sophomore, forwards share the burden.
Top Rookie: Mike Comrie
Hobey Candidate: Bubba. He's had a much better year than his nicknamesake
in the White House, eh?
3) Boston College: The best set of defensemen in the country, a solid
goalie and a very good first two lines -- I just wonder who, besides Gionta,
is a big-time scorer up front. Maybe he is enough.
Top Rookie: Brooks Orpik
Hobey Candidate: Gionta. Being a sophomore hurts his chances, but I'd bet
my house that he will be a finalist (barring injury) (please don't construe
my wager as an offer for your acceptance. Title is in Mrs. Howell's name so
you can't be a BFP).
4) Ohio State: So long as the young defensemen give Maund a look at the
puck, the Buckeyes should build on last year. I don't know that they will
finish ahead of Michigan State, but I give them extra credit for making the
Final Four last year.
Top Rookie: Mike McCormick or Jason Crain. Crain will
have the more immediate impact.
Hobey Candidate: Could be Boisvert vs. Maund, which
hurts both their chances.
5) Colorado College: Take away last year's bout with injuries and the
Tigers were probably a top 4 team. Not the most exciting team (especially
compared to the teams ahead of them), but they get the job done.
Top Rookie: Jeff Sanger, but Jesse Heerema may have
more of an opportunity to shine.
Hobey Candidate: Duh. Brian Swanson is a good
candidate, although he will definitely have to turn up the
intensity a notch.
6) Michigan State: It is hard to get over the loss of Harlton, Berens and
Alban on paper. But the Spartans still have a great group of defensemen and
Mike York, Shawn Horcroff and Rustyn Dolyny up front. If the freshmen are
as good as some people think, MSU is a serious contender.
Top Rookie: Adam Hall.
Hobey Candidate: Mike York.
7) Clarkson: The ECAC's top defensive club, for sure. If Erik Cole, Ben
Maidment Matt Poapst can score 15 goals each, and the team gets another 15-
20 from Matt Reid, the Golden Knights will probably be the most consistent
team in the ECAC.
Top Rookie: Poapst. Can't wait for those SLU/Clarkson
games. Have brothers ever played against each other in
those tilts before?
Hobey Candidate: Willie Mitchell, but he'll have to turn
down the PIM.
8) Princeton: An excellent set of forwards and the entire defense returns.
The Tigers were very good last year despite playing with only 4 defensemen
(5 if you include Jeff Halpern). If the goaltending is average, Princeton
earns this spot. (Prescient quote -- Len Quesnelle telling me at this time
last year "if we don't get to the NCAA tournament with this team, we never
will.").
Top Rookie: Kirk Lamb, who becomes eligible after 9 games. Tell everyone
you heard it here first. Among true freshmen, David DelMonte (Dion's little
brother; only Ivy League die-hards remember Dion, I presume). Hobey
Candidate: Halpern and Steve Shirreffs. OK, Hobey Baker was a guy who
played defense and forward, came from the Mid-Atlantic states, went to St.
Paul's, starred at Princeton, and was a fair haired, 5'10" fellow. Sound
like anyone you know?
9) Maine: Hockey East's second best team behind two from the ECAC? It
could be worse if Harvard plays the way it should and Yale plays the way it
did last year. The Black Bears have some great recruits, but I have doubts
about the defense and the depth up front.
Top Rookie: Doug Janik.
Hobey Candidate: Steve Kariya. Looking to pull "The Fusco"
10) Northern Michigan: I'd like to see a couple of guys net 20 goals for
the Wildcats That would get them up a few more notches. As it is, a tough
team to check because of the balance. Very solid everywhere.
Top Rookie: Bernie Sigrist.
Hobey Candidate: None.
11) Harvard: I've picked the Crimson in the top 20 in something like 4 of
the last 5 years. They've finished there once. Sooner or later, talent has
to count for something. I'm counting on Bala and Moore to rub off on their
teammates, rather than vice versa. If Craig Adams can't come back from
injury, there will be some leadership issues.
Top Rookie: Jared Cantanucci
Hobey Candidate: JR Prestifillippo. People seem to have forgotten just how
good he is when healthy and focused. He will be both to start the season.
12) Boston University: It hurts to pick the Terriers so low, but I just
don't see where Jack Parker will get the goals... and there are too many
kids on defense. I even have doubts about picking them this high, which
probably hurts coach Parker more than it hurts me.
Top Rookie: Mike Pandolfo.
Hobey Candidate: Michel Laroque. He better hope that his defense doesn't
take too long to gel.
13) Yale: Call this one part believing that the Elis over- achieved a
little bit last season and one part believing that Ray Giroux and Daryl
Jones were the primary reasons for their success. Still, Jeff Hamilton and
Alex Westlund are pretty good starting points. I'd love to see Hamilton,
Gionta and Halpern on a line together... yikes.
Top Rookie: Spencer Rodgers (brother of Harvard's
Clayton, continuing the Harvard/Yale sibling rivalry
begun by the Sproules and the Turcos)
Hobey Candidate: Hamilton and Westlund. Hamilton is
great, but if Yale does well enough for these guys to
merit consideration it will be because of Westlund.
14) Minnesota: No way things are as bad as last year. On the other hand,
the defense will definitely be interesting to watch (particularly on the
breakout). Too much depth up front to ignore, however.
Top Rookie: Pick One.
Hobey Candidate: If this team plays the way Doug Woog would like, there
won't be one. They need more than one guy to score.
15) Wisconsin: I'm not high on the Badgers, but I wasn't at this time last
year, either. Reinprecht and Anderson give them good top-level talent, but
I don't see depth at any position.
Top Rookie: Kent Davyduke.
Hobey Candidate: Anderson. Every team would kill for
this guy.
16) Northeastern: Could easily move up a few notches with competent
goaltending. Solid depth at forward and defense. Billy Newson, Todd
Barclay and Roger Holeczy form the best line in Hockey East (assuming that
they stay together). This could be the year that national folks get to
appreciate Bruce Crowder.
Top Rookie: Willie Levesque.
Hobey Candidate: None, but that doesn't mean that we
can't enjoy watching the little guys.
17) RPI: A couple of ECAC teams could challenge RPI for a top 5 spot in the
league (Vermont and Cornell would be my picks today, but that will change by
tomorrow). The defense looks thin, but there are enough quality forwards
and the goaltending is solid. Now, if Scott Prekaski had been admitted to
Princeton.... (a question Don Cahoon is probably asking every day).
Top Rookie: Matt Murley (I'm sure he'd like us to just let
him be)
Hobey Candidate: St. Hilaire, if his teammates can put
his sweet passes in the net.
18) St. Cloud: The Huskies fared pretty well last year despite losing some
key players to the pros. The recruits are good enough to offset the losses,
which could mean that St. Cloud moves up to 12th.
Top Rookie: Mark Hartigan or Nate DiCasmirro Hobey Candidate: None.
19) UNH: On one hand, the entire defense is back (minus Erik Johnson, who
was never a key guy). On the other hand, the defense let this team down
several times in the last two years. I guess we find out how good Jason
Krog is and whether the S line can do more with more ice time.
Top Rookie: I have never seen him play, but anyone who
scores 71 goals for Milton (Ontario junior) has to be
pretty damn good ... Darren Haydar.
Hobey Candidate: Krog. Might be tough if his offense
drops off with the loss of Mowers, et al.
20) Notre Dame: Tough break losing Mark Eaton ... sort of like Princeton
losing Dom Auger last summer, and it turned out OK for the Tigers. Never
recruit a Flyers draft pick, that's my theory (they constantly turn pro --
or at least that's my impression). Still, ND has a lot of experience and
adequate depth.
Top Rookie: David Inman.
Hobey Candidate: None.
Others: I really didn't think about anyone else seriously, although I took
a good look at St. Lawrence, UMD, Ferris State and Providence. I gave a
cursory look at everyone else, tossed them out of consideration, then went
back thinking "how come I dumped Miami and Lake Superior? Oh yeah, that's
why." This is where we find out what their coaches are made of, I guess.
OK, fire away....
-Geoff
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