In anticipation of the most celebrated tournament in college hockey, we
present a special CHODR preview of this year's Beanpot.  The field
features three of the top 15 teams in the ratings as Boston University
ranks #2, Northeastern is #12, Harvard is #14, and Boston College is
#33.  First, here are the score predictions and win probabilities for
each individual game (favored team in caps).
 
First Round - Monday, February 6:
 
HARVARD             4.41 (69.1%)  vs  Boston College      3.11 (30.9%)
BOSTON UNIVERSITY   5.48 (76.5%)  vs  Northeastern        3.43 (23.5%)
 
Championship/Consolation - Monday, February 13:
 
BOSTON UNIVERSITY   6.31 (89.1%)  vs  Boston College      2.82 (10.9%)
BOSTON UNIVERSITY   5.02 (79.7%)  vs  Harvard             2.82 (20.3%)
NORTHEASTERN        5.02 (69.7%)  vs  Boston College      3.58 (30.3%)
NORTHEASTERN        3.73 (52.2%)  vs  Harvard             3.58 (47.8%)
 
 
The following table summarizes the possible outcomes of the tournament.
The rating given is the latest overall CHODR rating which represents
the margin by which each team would be predicted to beat a hypothetical
average team.  Under each column labeled "1st", "2nd", "3rd" and "4th"
is the team's chances of finishing in that position.  For example, the
13.3% listed in the "2nd" column for BU means that BU has an 13.3%
chance of winning in the first round and then losing the championship
game to finish 2nd.
 
 
Rank  Team                Rating       1st     2nd     3rd     4th
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  #2  Boston University     2.68      63.1%   13.3%   20.3%    3.3%
 #14  Harvard               0.48      18.5%   50.6%   12.8%   18.1%
 #12  Northeastern          0.63      13.6%   10.0%   49.2%   27.3%
 #33  Boston College       -0.82       4.8%   26.1%   17.8%   51.3%
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
It's interesting to note that although Northeastern is the second
strongest team in the field, the Huskies are most likely to finish 3rd,
while the Harvard Crimson have the best chance of finishing 2nd.
Obviously this is due to the fact that Northeastern must face #2 BU in
the first round while Harvard matches up against #33 BC.  Also note that
Harvard and BC have identical predicted scores in their possible second
round games, due to having identical offensive ratings (3.75 goals per
game).
 
 
Timothy J. Danehy
Robin Lock                           [log in to unmask]