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Mon, 3 Feb 1992 09:16:12 EST |
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The College Hockey Computer Rating
compiled by Keith Instone
NOTE: TCHCR is *not* used in conjunction with the NCAA selection process.
Includes games on 2/1/92. Last week's ranking includes games on 1/26/92.
Last Division I Schedule Schedule
Rank Week Team Record Rating Strength Rank
1 3 Michigan 20 4 3 86.87 64.42 7
2 1 Minnesota 22 6 0 86.53 63.59 10
3 2 Lake Superior 16 6 2 81.94 64.21 8
4 5 Michigan State 14 6 5 75.29 63.29 12
5 4 Northern Michigan 15 10 3 73.93 65.45 5
6 6 Maine 18 3 1 73.79 46.35 26
7 8 Western Michigan 14 8 2 73.01 63.34 11
8 7 Wisconsin 16 8 2 72.74 62.08 16
9 9 Alaska-Anchorage 17 5 1 66.07 46.44 25
10 10 Boston University 16 5 2 63.84 46.77 24
11 15 Michigan Tech 13 14 1 61.93 64.81 6
12 11 Minnesota-Duluth 11 13 2 61.42 65.66 2
13 12 Providence 17 8 1 60.69 46.92 23
14 14 Miami 11 12 3 60.26 62.28 15
15 17 Harvard 10 3 3 59.70 41.98 37
16 21 Illinois-Chicago 8 13 3 58.71 68.00 1
17 13 St Lawrence 14 5 1 58.55 39.99 42
18 16 North Dakota 13 14 1 56.84 58.45 18
19 24 Ferris State 7 12 6 56.16 64.07 9
20 22 Colorado College 10 12 4 55.82 59.37 17
21 20 New Hampshire 15 9 1 55.27 45.39 28
22 23 Yale 10 4 3 55.15 42.57 35
23 19 Clarkson 13 6 1 54.76 39.55 43
24 18 St Cloud 8 13 1 54.04 62.84 13
25 25 Bowling Green 5 15 4 51.17 65.54 3
26 29 Ohio State 7 15 4 51.07 65.49 4
27 26 Cornell 10 6 2 48.31 38.40 45
28 27 Denver 8 19 1 47.38 62.64 14
29 28 UMass-Lowell 8 13 3 45.30 53.68 19
30 31 Vermont 11 9 1 44.71 39.13 44
31 30 Boston College 9 12 3 44.24 49.72 21
32 34 Northeastern 9 13 0 40.03 48.23 22
33 32 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 13 0 40.01 44.34 30
34 39 Kent 5 12 2 38.65 51.43 20
35 33 RPI 9 11 1 37.56 41.67 38
36 36 Colgate 8 11 1 36.74 41.48 39
37 35 Merrimack 11 14 0 36.47 41.46 40
38 40 Princeton 7 10 0 34.44 40.31 41
39 38 Brown 6 12 3 33.19 43.91 31
40 37 Alabama-Huntsville 6 11 0 31.45 42.87 34
41 41 Notre Dame 5 12 0 26.75 45.27 29
42 42 Union 1 14 1 12.42 42.53 36
43 43 Air Force 1 15 0 11.10 43.42 32
44 44 Dartmouth 1 17 0 10.45 46.32 27
45 45 Army 1 13 0 10.27 43.10 33
The College Hockey Computer Rating uses a connected schedule graph and a
least squares optimization to rate the 45 Division I college hockey teams.
This method considers a team's opponents, and their opponents, etc., until
all 505 Division I games are included.
In addition to rating the teams, a strength of schedule is calculated for
each team. The schedule strength can be computed by averaging the ratings
of a team's opponents for each game.
For every game, the teams are evaluated based on: the outcome (win, lose,
tie); the margin of victory; percentage of goals allowed; the site of the
game (home, away, neutral ice); and overtime or regulation time.
Only games against other Division I teams are considered.
NOTES FOR 2/1/92
The updated conference/independent head-to-head standings:
CCHA WCHA ECAC HEA Indep Total
CCHA ---- 4-4-1 4-0 1-1-1 8-1 17-6-2
0.500 1.000 0.500 0.889 0.720
WCHA 4-4-1 ---- 1-0 4-4 8-2 17-10-1
0.500 1.000 0.500 0.800 0.625
ECAC 0-4 0-1 ---- 12-19 10-6-1 22-30-1
0.000 0.000 0.387 0.618 0.425
HEA 1-1-1 4-4 19-12 ---- 26-7 50-24-1
0.500 0.500 0.613 0.788 0.673
Indep 1-8 2-8 6-10-1 7-26 ---- 16-52-1
0.111 0.200 0.382 0.212 0.239
Since the last time we printed this table (1/4), the CCHA has overtaken HEA
in best total inter-conference record. The CCHA went 4-0 and HEA went 4-4
out of conference in the last month.
Here is an interesting way to compare western league schools with eastern
league schools: common opponents (the independents).
Team vs. WCHA/CCHA vs. HEA/ECAC
Air Force 0-2 0-10
Alabama-Huntsville 0-0 3-4
Alaska-Anchorage 1-3 5-2
Alaska-Fairbanks 2-4 1-2
Army 0-0 0-8
Kent 0-3 3-4-1
Notre Dame 0-4 1-6
Alaska-Anchorage, Kent and Notre Dame all have a better winning percentage
versus "The East" than "The West." Air Force and Alaska-Fairbanks have the
same winning percentage against each. Alabama-Huntsville and Army have not
played The West, so we cannot make any comparisons with them.
Minnesota's sweep of Northern Michigan raised its rating 1.51 points and
would have normally been enough to retain the #1 ranking. But Michigan's
sweep of Lake Superior (along with all of the other results) was worth 3.70
points, giving the Wolverines a slim 0.34 point lead.
Maine almost caught the falling Wildcats and stand only 0.14 rating points
out of 5th.
North Dakota and Clarkson are two prominent teams that have fallen on hard
times since the new year. Each has lost 8 rating points since the 1/4 TCHCR.
North Dakota has fallen from 10th to 18th while going 1-6-1 while Clarkson
has fallen from 13th to 23rd while going 1-3-1.
Vermont's sweep of Clarkson and St. Lawrence only moved the Catamounts up 1
spot to #30, but they did improve their rating by 4.15 points. Last week,
they were 6.39 points behind #30 Boston College. The Eagles' loss to Kent
hurt them enough to push UVM up the spot.
Kent's sweep of BC/Providence vaulted them up 5 places to #34, just 1 behind
second-ranked-independent Alaska-Fairbanks. Kinda makes the Nanooks' trip to
KSU this weekend interesting, doesn't it?
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