Some tournament history and some thoughts on the first round matchups this
weekend in the ECAC:
#10 St. Lawrence at #1 Yale
This season: Yale won series, 2-0
11/8 at Yale 3, St. Lawrence 0
2/21 Yale 7, at St. Lawrence 2
ECAC playoff meetings: St. Lawrence leads series, 4-2
1989 Quarterfinal at St. Lawrence #2 St. Lawrence 2, #7 Yale 1
St. Lawrence 9, Yale 2
1987 Semifinal #3 St. Lawrence 7, #4 Yale 0
1986 Quarterfinal at Yale #2 Yale 6, #7 St. Lawrence 5
Yale 9, St. Lawrence 4
1967 Quarterfinal at St. Lawrence #4 St. Lawrence 4, #5 Yale 2
ECAC tournament records:
Yale 6-19-3 (0.268)
St. Lawrence 27-29-1, four championships (1962, 1988, 1989, 1992)
First Round (Quarterfinal) records (games played):
Yale 3-16-2 (0.190), 3-1-1 (0.700) at home
St. Lawrence 16-17-1 (0.485), 1-12-1 (0.107) on the road
First Round (Quarterfinal) records (series won-lost):
Yale 2-10 (0.167), 2-1 (0.667) at home
St. Lawrence 10-11 (0.476), 1-9 (0.100) on the road
Thoughts:
Skeptics waited and waited and *waited* for Yale to hit their inevitable
second-half slump, and it finally seemed to happen in late February when the
Elis saw their "insurmountable" six-point lead in the ECAC shrink to just one
in two weeks. But Tim Taylor's charges pulled together in the season's final
weekend and, with a pair of tough road wins over Union and Rensselaer,
delivered Yale's first-ever ECAC title and the school's first trip to the NCAA
tournament since 1952. Now the Whale hosts a playoff series for the first time
since 1992. Any discussion of Yale starts with standout goalie Alex Westlund,
who led the league in GAA (1.99) and wins (17) and whose 0.929 save percentage
ranked second behind Brown's Scott Stirling (0.932). A strong defense led by
Ray Giroux is a big asset as well. Often overlooked is the Eli offense, third
in the ECAC, but Yale boasts sophomore Jeff Hamilton, whose 32 league points
tied him for second and who led the league with 19 goals. Giroux was the top
scoring defenseman in the ECAC with 26 points.
St. Lawrence seemed out of it going into the weekend, sitting three points out
of tenth place, but a sweep combined with a pair of losses by Dartmouth gave
the Saints the last playoff spot. The Saints have their own wall between the
pipes in Eric Heffler, who posted a 2.80 GAA and 0.916 save percentage against
ECAC opponents, but St. Lawrence's leaky defense (they allowed 33.16 shots on
goal per game, worst among the playoff teams and a far cry from Yale's 28.18)
helps explain why Heffler posted a sub-0.500 record in spite of his great
stats. It would help to have an offense to cover for that defense, but St.
Lawrence is a little snake-bit in that area as well, as only Paul DiFrancesco,
with 27 points in the league, averaged more than a point a game.
The only edge the Saints can realistically point to is playoff experience, as
their players have made the post-season every year of their careers while Yale
missed the tournament in 1995 and 1996. But St. Lawrence has not advanced in
the ECAC's since 1992, the year they won their last championship. That's not
going to be enough of an edge against the Blue Juggernaut. Yale in two.
#9 Vermont at #2 Clarkson
This season: Clarkson won series, 2-0
1/17 Clarkson 5, at Vermont 4
2/6 at Clarkson 5, Vermont 2
ECAC playoff meetings: Series tied. 1-1
1996 Consolation #1 Vermont 3, #2 Clarkson 1
1980 Quarterfinal at Vermont #5 Clarkson 8, #4 Vermont 3
ECAC tournament records:
Clarkson 54-42-5 (0.564), three championships (1966, 1991, 1993)
Vermont 12-21-3 (0.375)
First Round (Quarterfinal) records (games played):
Clarkson 36-11-4 (0.745), 27-3-2 (0.875) at home
Vermont 9-13-3 (0.420), 4-10-2 (0.313) on the road
First Round (Quarterfinal) records (series won-lost):
Clarkson 26-9 (0.743), 20-3 (0.870) at home
Vermont 4-8 (0.333), 1-6 (0.143) on the road
Thoughts:
Clarkson's got themselves a goaltending controversy, Senior Dan Murphy was the
man at the beginning of the season, as he has been his entire collegiate
career, but he faltered, and senior Chris Bernard came in for a while. Then
Murphy was back after Bernard had a bad game, etc. In the Golden Knights' last
game of the regular season, Murphy let in a couple soft goals, and Bernard went
between the pipes about halfway through, shutting out Cornell the rest of the
way as Clarkson rallied for the win.
This is actually a problem a lot of teams would kill to have. Do you go with
Murphy, a two-time All-American whose 2.06 GAA puts him third in the league, or
with Bernard, who is undefeated in 12 appearances this season (10-0-1) and
whose 2.33 GAA puts him fourth? Murphy wound up on the bench earlier in the
year due to the soft goals he was giving up, and his performance Saturday was
not one that would silence his detractors. Clarkson has seemed to play better
of late with Bernard in the net, and I would bet he'll be the starter in the
playoffs. I would also bet he'll be on a very short leash... the first sign of
trouble, and Murphy will be in there, until *he* messes up.
Of course, with the defense the Knights throw out there, an injured pylon might
do an adequate job. Clarkson has permitted an almost insanely low 23.68 shots
per game this year, by far the best in the league. And Vermont, despite
throwing a scare into Harvard by nearly rallying from a 6-1 first-period
deficit last Friday (they lost 7-6), is not what you would call an offensive
powerhouse. Gone are the days of St. Louis and Perrin... the leading scorers on
the team (there was a four-way tie for first) all put up just 14 points against
ECAC competition. That, quite bluntly, is dreadful. The Catamounts can't be
taken too lightly, as they beat Yale at Yale two weeks ago, giving the Elis
their only home loss of the season. Vermont's a young team which will probably
make some noise in the future, but Clarkson should roll here in two.
#8 Cornell at #3 Rensselaer
This season: Rensselaer won series, 2-0
12/6 at Rensselaer 7, Cornell 5
2/27 Rensselaer 4, at Cornell 3
ECAC playoff meetings: Cornell leads series, 4-2
1997 Semifinal #2 Cornell 5, #4 Rensselaer 3
1990 Semifinal #2 Rensselaer 3, #3 Cornell 2
1985 Semifinal #1 Rensselaer 5, #4 Cornell 1
1977 Quarterfinal at Cornell #3 Cornell 7, #6 Rensselaer 5
1974 Consolation #4 Cornell 8, #8 Rensselaer 2
1973 Quarterfinal at Cornell #1 Cornell 9, #8 Rensselaer 3
ECAC tournament records:
Rensselaer 30-32-3 (0.485), three championships (1984, 1985, 1995)
Cornell 57-25-3 (0.688), nine championships (1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973,
1980, 1986, 1996, 1997)
First Round (Quarterfinal) records (games played):
Rensselaer 18-22-2 (0.452), 12-5 (0.706) at home
Cornell 28-8-3 (0.756), 4-5-1 (0.450) on the road
First Round (Quarterfinal) records (series won-lost):
Rensselaer 11-14 (0.440), 6-2 (0.750) at home
Cornell 23-5 (0.821), 4-3 (0.571) on the road
Thoughts:
Some history first. Cornell is the only ECAC team that has won more quarter-
finals on the road than they have lost (4-3). Their 57 tournament wins, 0.688
percentage, and nine championships are all league bests. And the Big Red, once
upon a time (1980), rode the #8 seed to a tournament championship, becoming the
lowest-seeded team anywhere to pull that off. And by the way, Cornell is the
master of Friday the 13th games, having gone 8-1 in them since 1957, including
last month's win over Vermont. The Big Red is 3-0 in Friday the 13th *playoff*
games.
That's history... now for reality. The Big Red has lost 70-some man-games to
injury, probably the highest total in the league by a good margin, and two more
will sit out this weekend: freshmen Andrew McNiven and Brian Telesmanic.
They've not had a weekend sweep since the first two games of the season, and
they finished the year with a 1-6 thud, losing their last four games by one
goal each. This team has been able to put together some impressive stretches
of solid, even great play, but they've been looking all year for that total
three-period effort.
Oddly enough, since the Big Red was unable to climb high enough to face
Harvard, Rensselaer is probably the most favorable opponent for them to face.
Touted by the Albany press to be all-but-national champions after returning
their 96-97 team intact, the Engineers got off to an unsatisfying 8-7-1 start
before recovering somewhat and nailing down a third-place finish. Rensselaer
boasts the league's top offense, led by the league's top scorer in Eric Healey.
The Engineers also have a solid goaltending tandem in Scott Prekaski and Joel
Laing. They've been a lot more consistent in the second half of the season,
most notably on their last road trip two weeks ago, when they came back from a
3-1 deficit to beat Cornell and from a 4-1 deficit to tie Colgate.
With Jason Elliott injured, Cornell has been relying on backup Ian Burt, who
certainly can't be faulted for any of the the last four losses. Nevertheless,
there's a 50-50 chance that Elliott, who had surgery to repair torn knee
cartilage two weeks ago, will be back in the net for the Big Red. Elliott, who
is third in the NCAA with a 0.923 save percentage, would give Cornell a big
boost. Then again, it probably won't matter to Rensselaer; the last time they
saw Elliott back in December, they put the puck past him six times in two
periods. Last year, I swore I would never pick against a Mike Schafer-coached
team again, but Cornell just has too much to overcome here. Rensselaer in a
pair of tough games.
#7 Princeton at #4 Brown
This season: Series tied, 1-1
11/15 Princeton 6, at Brown 5 (OT)
2/14 Brown 4, at Princeton 1
ECAC playoff meetings: Series tied, 2-2
1996 Preliminary at Brown #7 Brown 4, #10 Princeton 3
1995 Quarterfinal at Brown #7 Princeton 4, #2 Brown 3
Brown 3, Princeton 2
Princeton 3, Brown 2 (2 OT)
ECAC tournament records:
Brown 13-27-1 (0.329)
Princeton 8-17 (0.320)
First Round (Quarterfinal) records (games played):
Brown 8-17-1 (0.327), 7-3-1 (0.682) at home
Princeton 10-12-3 (0.460), all on the road
First Round (Quarterfinal) records (series won-lost):
Brown 6-12 (0.333), 5-1 (0.833) at home
Princeton 2-5 (0.286), all on the road
Thoughts:
When I was putting all this together, the most surprising stat I came across
was Brown's record in home quarterfinals. The Bears haven't hosted the
quarter- finals very often, but when they have, they've advanced five times out
of six. This despite the fact that they were facing pretty good competition
each time, as they were seeded #4, #4, #3, #4, and #4. The one defeat,
however, is one that Brown's seniors should remember very well. It came in
1995, when Brown got the #2 seed, their highest ever, then promptly lost to...
Princeton. The Tigers have been road warriors in the quarterfinals lately, as
they also advanced over Vermont last year.
The teams took very different routes to the playoffs. The Bruins started the
season with an awful 2-8 league record, but with a hot Scott Stirling in goal,
the team has gone on an 8-2-1 tear since January 31, with the losses coming to
Yale and Clarkson. Meanwhile, Princeton got off to a decent start, and stunned
nationally-ranked Boston University on December 30th with a 3-2 win, but the
Tigers have gone a mediocre 5-6-4 since then. Both teams have decent offenses,
with Brown's being led by 30-point scorer (#5 in the league) Damian Prescott,
and the Tigers countering with a trio of 20-point scorers: Jeff Halpern, Scott
Bertoli, and Steve Shirreffs.
Defensively, at least in terms of shots allowed, Princeton has done a better
job than Brown this year (27.90 to 33.10), but that might be due in part to the
more wide-open style that Brown has favored. And the Bears do have Stirling
and his league-best 0.932 save percentage between the pipes.
Playoff experience obviously favors the Tigers, with their two trips to the
ECAC semis and playing for the championship in '95. Picking an upset is really
tempting here, but while Princeton is quite capable of cooling off Brown's hot
streak, the Tigers won't be able to do it often enough to advance. A hard-
fought series goes Brown's way in three.
#6 Colgate at #5 Harvard
This season: Harvard won series, 2-0
11/8 Harvard 6, at Colgate 5
2/20 at Harvard 6, Colgate 1
ECAC playoff meetings: Harvard leads series, 5-0
1986 Quarterfinal at Harvard #1 Harvard 2, #8 Colgate 0
Harvard 6, Colgate 4
1985 Quarterfinal at Harvard #2 Harvard 4, #7 Colgate 2
Harvard 10, Colgate 2
1963 Quarterfinal at Harvard #3 Harvard 5, #6 Colgate 3
ECAC tournament records:
Harvard 51-29-4 (0.631), five championships (1963, 1971, 1983, 1987, 1994)
Colgate 12-29-3 (0.307), one championship (1990)
First Round (Quarterfinal) records (games played):
Harvard 29-11-4 (0.705), 25-5-3 (0.803) at home
Colgate 7-24-2 (0.242), 1-20-1 (0.068) on the road
First Round (Quarterfinal) records (series won-lost):
Harvard 20-9 (0.690), 17-5 (0.773) at home
Colgate 3-15 (0.167), 0-13 on the road
Thoughts:
With players like Dru Burgess, Tim Loftsgard, Rob Mara, and Dan Wildfong
returning, Colgate had the makings of a pretty strong offense this season, and
indeed the Red Raiders did start out on fire, putting up 33 goals in their
first six league games. They tailed off a bit after that, but then on January
11th, they exploded for ten goals in a non-league contest against Merrimack.
And since then... nothing. They've broken the three-goal barrier twice,
putting up four against St. Lawrence in a win and four against Rensselaer in a
tie (in which they blew a three-goal lead). Not coincidentally, Colgate
nose-dived in the standings as well, finishing with a 3-8-3 run, and the Red
Raiders are winless in their last six.
Harvard has been reeling themselves, enduring a 1-6 run in February (the one
was Colgate!) and looking like they might actually drop out of the playoff
picture. Defense-minded coach Ronn Tomassoni probably got an ulcer watching his
team almost lose a 6-1 lead against Vermont in the season's final weekend, but
the Crimson managed to hang on for the win, then beat Dartmouth to become the
ECAC's first-ever #5 team to have home ice. Nevertheless, Harvard has been up
and down all year -- mostly down in the second half, much like Colgate.
The Crimson appear to have the slight edge on offense and defense. Neither
team's goaltending has been particularly stellar, although if Harvard's J.R.
Prestifilippo continues on the mend from the mono that has plagued him all year
(as it appears he does), the Crimson will have the edge there as well. This is
not an easy pick, but given that Colgate has never beaten Harvard in the
postseason, and given the Red Raiders' horrendous quarterfinal road record, the
pick here is Harvard. The teams will probably spend the entire first game
feeling each other out (ending in a tie, maybe even a scoreless one), but look
for the Crimson's young guns, Chris Bala and Steve Moore, to carry the day in
the second game. Harvard advances in two.
OK, that was a tad long-winded. Just to recap: Yale over St. Lawrence in two,
Clarkson over Vermont in two, Rensselaer over Cornell in two, Brown over
Princeton in three, and Harvard over Colgate in two. Yeah, I wussed out and
picked all the home teams.
--
Disclaimer -- Unless otherwise noted, all opinions expressed above are
strictly those of:
Bill Fenwick
Cornell '86 and '95 DJF 5/27/94
LET'S GO RED!! JCF 12/2/97
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