On Mar 10, 14:24, Robb Newman wrote:
>UVM is a lock for a bid, IMHO.
 
Sure looks that way.
 
>Where they
>get seeded is another matter - I hope the committee has enough flexibility
>to be allowed to punish UVM for completely blowing the end of their season.
 
I think the committee is pretty much married to the PWR... given that they've
come up with this system, I don't see them deciding to give a team a bye if
another team is higher in the PWR and would get the bye spot otherwise.
 
But then... why must Vermont be punished?  I share the opinion that the Cats
blew it big-time toward the end of the season and at the very least failed to
live up to realistic expectations, but going 22-10-3 with some tough non-
conference games (UNH twice, BU, Miami, Lake Superior, Colorado College, and
only losing two of those) is a pretty solid season in anybody's book.  Consi-
dering their talent, they could have and should have done better, but that's no
reason to "punish" the Cats by denying them the #2E seed and the bye (according
to PWR) should they still be in that position when all the conference tourna-
ments are done.  If there are teams that are "more deserving" of that bye than
Vermont is, presumably because they are "playing better", then where the heck
were these teams during the earlier parts of the regular season, when the Cats
*were* doing well?
 
Having said that, Vermont's hold on the current #2E seed looks pretty tenuous,
and the Cats have hurt themselves by not being able to play in the ECAC Phinal
Phour.  A slice of the PWR, from USCHO (http://uscollegehockey.com)
 
1996-97 Pairwise Rankings (PWR)
 
Rk Team                GP  W- L- T  Win%  Rk     RPI  Rk  PWR
 
 5 Vermont             35 22-10- 3 0.6714  9 | 0.5821  5 | 15
 6 Maine               32 21-10- 1 0.6719  8 | 0.5661  9 | 15
 7 New Hampshire       36 27- 9- 0 0.7500  3 | 0.5937  3 | 14
 
With Maine ineligible, the team that can overtake the Cats the easiest is New
Hampshire, and it turns out that these 'Cats can overtake the other Cats by
winning the Hockey East tournament.  Vermont is one pairwise comparison ahead of
UNH right now, and they win the comparison with UNH (again, from USHCO):
 
    New Hampshire       vs Vermont
RPI      0.5937  1           0.5821  0
L20    13- 7- 0  0         12- 5- 3  1
TUC     5- 6- 0  0          9- 8- 2  1
H2H              1                   1
COP    14- 7- 0  0         12- 3- 1  1
============================================
PTS              2                   4
 
But if UNH goes on to win HE, their "Last 20" record goes from 13-7 to 14-6,
giving them a PWR point and taking one from Vermont.  This leaves the teams tied
in PWR points with three each, with the tiebreaker being the RPI.  Thus, UNH
would win this comparison and move ahead of Vermont for the #2E seed and the
bye.
 
I see from Deron's post that, contrary to what I said before, a team winning
both the regular-season and tournament titles *does* get an automatic bye
(something I actually favor), so BU could knock Vermont out of the bye spot
also.  So if BU and UNH win their semifinal matches, Vermont loses the bye.
 
--
Disclaimer -- Unless otherwise noted, all opinions expressed above are
              strictly those of:
 
Bill Fenwick
Cornell '86 and '95
LET'S GO RED!!                                                  DJF  5/27/94
"I believe Marcel Marceau said it best."
-- Madeline Kahn, "Cosby"
 
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