Before running through the possible bid scenarios pending the outcome
of the ECAC tournament, let me state some assumptions:
 
1) The ECAC will get exactly two bids, given the relatively weak schedules
   and mediocre performance against other conferences.  I'm not saying I
   agree with it, I'm just saying these will be the reasons cited.
 
2) RPI and Cornell must win the tournament to get a bid.  #10 RPI upset
   #7 Vermont and shocked #1 Harvard to earn a trip to the Garden.  They
   have beaten both SLU and Clarkson in overtime games, but they were still
   10th out of 12 teams, ahead of only Dartmouth and Union.  Cornell did
   beat SLU early in the season, but was easily beaten at Appleton and was
   swept by the Knights.  They are #5 in the league, and haven't played
   very well in the latter half of the season.
 
3) Harvard needs some help to get a bid.  After being swept by SLU and Clarkson
   in the final weekend of the season, then losing Saturday to RPI in overtime,
   the Crimson don't have much of a chance.  They were the regular season
   champs, but by only one point over two teams, and also had 6 ties in
   league play.  There absence from HockeyFest was, IMO, seriously impairs
   their chances.
 
Given these assumptions, it logically follows that the two ECAC teams
receiving bids will be the tourney champ and SLU or Clarkson, but if
one of them leaves the door open, Harvard could walk in.  Let's run down
all the possibilities and see what could happen:
 
Possibility #1:
SLU beats RPI
Clarkson beats Cornell
SLU plays Clarkson for the championship.
If Clarkson wins, the Knights and the Saints will both go to the show.
If SLU wins, there is a chance that Harvard will get the nod ahead
of the Knights, but a very small chance at best.
 
Possibility #2:
SLU beats RPI
Cornell beats Clarkson
SLU plays Cornell for the championship.
If Cornell wins against SLU, it will be Cornell and SLU.  There is an
*extremely* small chance that SLU could be overlooked in favor of Harvard.
If SLU wins, it could be interesting.  This is a better chance for Harvard
to get in ahead of the Knights, but it could be a very political decision.
 
Possibility #3:
RPI beats SLU
Clarkson beats Cornell
RPI plays Clarkson for the championship.
If RPI wins, it could be a toss-up between SLU, Clarkson, and Harvard for the
nod.  SLU probably has the edge over Clarkson, and Harvard's recent skid is a
big factor.
If Clarkson wins, Harvard might have the edge on SLU, since both teams lost in
the tournament to upstart RPI, but Harvard was the regular season champ.
 
Possibility #4:
RPI beats SLU
Cornell beats Clarkson
RPI plays Cornell for the championship.
This is Harvard's best chance to continue their season and accompany the
ECAC victor to the tournament.  The Knights would have almost no chance in
this scenario, by virtue of the 2 defeats to St. Lawrence.  Harvard probably
has an edge on SLU, again losing to the same team and Harvard being
the regular season champs.
 
The summary is this:
If SLU beats RPI, the Saints will go to the show.
Clarkson needs to get by Cornell to have any real chance, and they are
   better off if SLU joins them in the championship game.
Harvard's best chance is for both SLU and Clarkson to lose in the
  first round.  Harvard is out of luck if they both win in the
  first round.
Only one, if either, of RPI and Cornell will get a bid.  One of these
  teams must win two games in Boston or they are finished.
 
 
 
By the way, when was the last time that the ECAC tournament featured
four teams from the great state of New York?  When was the last time the
tournament featured teams from 4 of the ECAC's seven represented states ??
 
Let's Go SLU !!!!!!
 
Timothy J. Danehy
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