After sending my long reply to Craig's post, I then saw Bill's reminder
that each conference must send at least two teams, thus rendering most of
my points moot.  But as many of you know, I have always advocated that the
best 12 teams should go regardless of affiliation, so perhaps you could
look at my post as suggesting why the ECAC may deserve only one.  Of course,
I expected it to get two anyway, so my points about PC & UNH being rated
closely and their HE tourney showings being key to possible bids, are still
valid.
 
>likely to force a good Hockey East team to stay home for the playoffs. (It
>is indeed very likely that the Independent bid will come from the East and
>that there will also be four HE teams worthy of consideration.  Add the two
>ECAC bids and that makes seven from the East, meaning someone is going to
>have to get bumped.)
 
One thing - this isn't quite the way the committee does it, so we should
try not to look at this way, either.  In effect, all teams, regardless of
region, are tossed in together and then the 12 are selected, some by virtue
of automatic bid (and then it isn't necessary to argue for/against them).
Then they are ordered in their regions - Maine goes in the East, Minnesota
in the West, etc.  Then if one region has > 6 teams, the extras are shifted.
 
Of course, even when selecting the 12, the committee is aware of how many it
has picked from certain conferences.  And with the new two-team rule, (even
though this isn't REALLY the way it is done) we can now decide which two go
from each conference, which gives us nine with UAA, and then we only have
three to pick from the rest.  In a way it makes things easier, I will
admit.
 
>I'm not terribly fond of this rule, but on the other hand, it will probably
>work out that the ECAC would have sent two teams anyway.  Regular-season
>champion Harvard will go, but I don't believe they will win the ECAC tour-
>nament.  Thus, that automatic bid will go to another ECAC team.
 
As I suggested in my post, I really don't think Harvard is a lock anymore.
I don't think it has the edge over the third HE team, and it may lose out
to SLU and Clarkson due to winning percentage and head-to-head.  A poor
showing in the ECACs combined with good showings by the other two could
get Harvard left home.  What will work to its advantage is that only one
of SLU and Clarkson will make the final since they would meet in the semis,
and so one of those two will have its winning percentage drop because it
will have won the q-final and lost the semifinal (add .500 record to > .500
record, overall record will drop).  The best scenario for Harvard, other than
winning the ECAC and having both SLU/CU lose in the q-final, is to at least
make the final.
 
If it doesn't, its chances are in doubt.  If SLU & CU go, then there
appear to be 12 other teams rated ahead of Harvard including UAA, and so
Harvard might just miss out.  Winning the ECAC regular season crown and fifty
cents will get Harvard a cup of coffee right now.  It's what they do in
the playoffs that will determine their fate.
 
 
- mike