>I see it going this way, based on the ECAC regular season, Clarkson, Harvard,
>and SLU have essentially even records.  If the two finalists are from this
>group of three, then the two finalists will go to the Nationals.  All three
>of these teams are probably better than UNH, in spite of the NC$$ poll, but
>its likely that the three will not get all get bids, since the ECAC seems to
>have a weak reputation relative to HE.
 
All three are better than UNH?  Very doubtful, and I have seen all four.  You
are forgetting the fact that UNH has beaten SLU already this season - that
counts in their favor.  Besides, Providence may have the edge on UNH right
now due to better overall and head-to-head record.  BTW, you must ignore the
placements of teams within conferences, that doesn't count for anything.
That's why UNH's showing in the HE tourney is vital to its NC$$ chances.
 
Harvard has a slight edge on UNH in winning percentage, but when you take
into account the other factors like strength of schedule, common opponents,
etc. then UNH moves in front.  SLU and Clarkson have edges in winning
percentage of about .060, but UNH has the clear advantage in strength of
schedule.  Also, to break ties, UNH has beaten SLU but lost to Clarkson.
 
>This is unfortunate.  I have seen Clarkson, Harvard, and St.  Lawerence all
>play unbelieviably great hockey this year.  I would find it very hard to
>pick the best two at this point.
 
But I can say that I have seen Maine, BU, PC, and UNH all play great hockey
at times.  I have also seen Clarkson, Harvard and SLU play well at times.
And I have seen all of the above except Maine play awful, too.  I think
your selections seem to come out of a bias in favor of the ECAC, and when
trying to work the seeds out, you have to put aside such a bias like I
have to put aside the fact that I am involved with Merrimack and HE.
 
Looking at the factors the committee will consider, I came up with a
possibility of four HE teams and one ECAC team.  That is because right
now, the numbers have four HE teams rated above the best ECAC team.  I'm
not suggesting that this means that we *will* see 4 and 1, but I seriously
doubt that fewer than three HE teams will get in.  PC and UNH are rated
almost exactly even (the difference isn't worth measuring) and so PC has
the edge due to head-to-head record.   That makes the HE tourney extremely
important for both teams.  If the committee decides not to award HE 4
bids, then one of these two teams will probably not make it.
 
As you say, Harvard, Clarkson and SLU are all rated nearly even.  Harvard
is in trouble because of winning percentage and head-to-head vs these
two teams.  The ECAC tourney will decide which of these three teams goes.
Anyone else from the ECAC would have to win the tourney and get the
automatic bid.
 
BTW, Boston College, the fifth HE team, is rated just behind these three
ECAC teams.  These three ECAC teams don't even come in the top 12 in
the nation right now, although that will likely change, while the four
HE squads are in the top 10.
 
I predict that we will hear grumbling from the West after at least one of
its teams is left home for an ECAC team that is rated lower.  But that is
because I expect politics to once again play a part.  We will likely see
3 HE teams, 2 ECAC teams, UAA, 2 or 3 WCHA teams, and 3 or 4 CCHA teams.
 
The question in the West right now seems to be whether the CCHA will
get a 4th team, Western Michigan, ahead of the WCHA's 3rd team, Northern
Michigan.  It's too close to call right now.
 
>1 Maine
>2 BU
>3 ECAC #1
>4 ECAC #2
>5 Alaska
>6 ECAC #3 or HE #3
 
Of course, anything is possible - but one thing that can't happen is for
UAA to be seeded higher than an East seed.  Even if six West teams are seeded
higher than UAA, what happens initially is that the teams are kept within
their regions:
 
West       East
      1
      2
     ...
      6    xxx
UAA   7    xxx
 
Then, if one region has more teams than the other, the extra (> 6) teams
are shifted to the open seeds in the other region.  Here, as has happened
in the past, UAA would be moved to become the 6E seed.
 
It is possible for UAA to be seeded higher than last in the West, in
which case a team like WMU could be shifted to the East.  This hasn't
been done before - but then, an Independent has never put up the numbers
that UAA has, either.  Someone else (step forward if you wish) suggested to me
that the committee has intentionally been rating UAA lower than it appears
to deserve, because it intends to give it the last seed in the West.  I
don't know; could be.
 
 
- mike