Date sent:              Mon, 8 Mar 1999 01:55:12 +0100
Send reply to:          John Whelan <[log in to unmask]>
From:                   John Whelan <[log in to unmask]>
Subject:                Improve PWR? Lessons from the MAAC experience
To:                     [log in to unmask]
 
>
> A possible replacement for the record in the last 16 games would be to
> define an RPI-like rating of recent performance which is made up of
> 35% winning percentage in the last 16 games, 50% opponents' opponents'
> winning percentage (in all games, not just the last 16) weighted by
> the number of times those opponents were faced in the last 16 games,
> and 15% opponents' opponents' winning percentage, similarly defined.
> Perhaps the record vs TUC could be replaced with an RPI calculated
> entirely with games between TUCs, although the smaller sample size
> might cause a problem (in fact, it is conceivable that a team would
> play only one other TUC and thus make it impossible to define such an
> RPI at all).
>
> At any rate, I think the best idea would be to consider a number of
> proposals and apply them to this year's test case.  The MAAC's
> insularity is likely to improve over the years, but that change may be
> slow, and the sooner they can be judged accurately without invoking
> conference-specific treatment, the better for the credibility of the
> selection process.
 
Since John brings this up, and I happen to already have a calculation
tool available, I offer the current L16 as an RPI calculation (using
opponents and opp opponents total season numbers) as an attachment to
this message.  Although Quinnipiac takes a hit by doing this (falling
from 5 to 15), they don't fall all that far because their winning
percentage holds them up.  UConn takes a much bigger hit, falling from
12 to 28.  (Results are included as an ASCII text attachment to this
message.)
 
I haven't tried calculating PWR with these numbers, so I can't say what
the effect would be.
 
Just for the record, I think that an RPI calculation should be used in
place of a straight winning percentage for the L16 because (as
evidenced by the use of RPI overall) the NCAA obviously thinks that the
RPI is a better representation of a team's performance.  If this
applies over the whole season, it should likewise apply over the last
16 games a team plays.
--
 Craig Powers                   NU ChE class of '98
 [log in to unmask]       http://lynx.neu.edu/home/httpd/c/cpowers
 [log in to unmask]              http://www.hal-pc.org/~enigma
 
"Good..bad....I'm the guy with the gun." -- "Ash" in *Army of Darkness*
 
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