A few weeks ago we were discussing the difference between
comparing the total Pairwise Rankings and looking only at the pairwise
comparisons among those teams. If the season ended today, it would
make a big difference. Here are the current pairwise comparison
results (yes, it's a third independent calculation of the same numbers
posted today):
Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 Mich State 23 .621 NDBUMiNHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
2 North Dakota 22 .621 __ BUMiNHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
3 Boston Univ 21 .616 ____ MiNHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
4 Michigan 20 .589 ______ NHBCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
5 New Hampshire 19 .581 ________ BCYaCkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
6 Boston Coll 17 .570 __________ Ya__OSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
7 Yale 17 .560 ____________ CkOSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
8 Clarkson 17 .559 __________BC__ OSWiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
9 Ohio State 15 .548 ________________ WiCCMmNESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
10 Wisconsin 13 .538 __________________ CC__NESCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
11 CO College 12 .544 ____________________ MmNE__MDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
12 Miami 12 .541 __________________Wi__ NE__MDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
13 Northeastern 11 .530 ________________________ SCMDCgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
14 St Cloud 10 .556 ____________________CCMm__ MDCgNt__NM__PnCrPvDa
15 Minn-Duluth 9 .519 ____________________________ CgNtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
16 Colgate 8 .508 ______________________________ NtLSNMRPPnCrPvDa
17 Notre Dame 7 .513 ________________________________ LSNMRPPnCrPvDa
18 Lake Superior 6 .507 __________________________SC______ __RPPnCrPvDa
19 Northern Mich 5 .510 __________________________________LS RP__CrPvDa
20 RPI 5 .504 __________________________SC__________ PnCrPvDa
21 Princeton 4 .501 ____________________________________NM__ CrPvDa
22 Cornell 2 .494 __________________________________________ PvDa
23 Providence 1 .500 ____________________________________________ Da
24 Dartmouth 0 .468 ______________________________________________
Looking only at the PWR, which is the total number of
comparisons won by a team, we might conclude that the projected
tournament field would be the top twelve teams, down through Miami.
That's the way the selection committee did things in 1996, but it's
*not* the way it worked last year, and it's not the way it works now.
Instead, as explained by Joe Marsh to Adam Wodon
<http://www.uscollegehockey.com/tournament/032097.html>, the committee
uses the pairwise comparisons to identify the teams which are
obviously in the tournament, and those which are "on the bubble".
They then use the comparisons *among*the*bubble*teams* to determine
which of those make it. Using the current numbers, the first nine
teams in the PWR win comparisons with all the others, so they're
obviously in. A reasonable definition of "the bubble" would seem to
me to be teams 10-14. The comparisons among those teams are as
follows:
Team lPWR RPI Comps Won
1 Wisconsin 3 .538 SCCC__NE
2 St Cloud 2 .556 __ CCMm__
3 CO College 2 .544 ____ MmNE
4 Miami 2 .541 Wi____ NE
5 Northeastern 1 .530 __SC____
Quoting from my analysis at <http://www.cc.utah.edu/~jtw16960/pframe.html>,
Wisconsin gets one bid, since they have the highest "local PWR", and
Northeastern is out, with the lowest. Of the remaining three teams,
SCSU and CC both win their comparisons with Miami, and thus grab the
last two spots. Thus St. Cloud, despite having a total PWR two lower
than Miami's, grabs the last tournament spot from the RedHawks. This
conclusion is inescapable unless we extend the "bubble" all the way
down to #18 Lake State or #20 RPI.
In other words, the current tournament selection procedure, to the
best of my knowledge, would place St. Cloud State, 14th in the PWR in
the tournament, and leave out Miami, tied for the 11th highest PWR in
the nation. The reason is that SCSU's pairwise comparison losses with
Lake Superior and Rensselaer do not play a role here, as those teams
are not "on the bubble".
John Whelan, Cornell '91
Official Scorer/PA Announcer
U of Utah Ice Hockey Club
<[log in to unmask]>
<http://www.cc.utah.edu/~jtw16960/joe.html>
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