Sean Pickett writes:
 
> As can be seen below, despite the losses this weekend,
> both Terrier goalies still are doing well.
...
> As for Martin Fillion versus Tom Noble and Michel Larocque, I have
> combined both of BU's goalies' statistics for a comparision.
 
>                           HOCKEY EAST
> PLAYER, SCHOOL         GP  W-L-T  GAA    SV%
> Noble/Larocque, BU     16 11-3-2  3.56  .879
> Martin Fillion, UML    17 11-4-1  4.01  .867
 
>                           OVERALL
> PLAYER, SCHOOL         GP   W-L-T  GAA    SV%
> Noble/Larocque, BU     24  17-3-3  3.42  .875
> Martin Fillion, UML    24  16-5-2  3.78  .869
 
I would argue that Wins and Losses as well as GAA are totally meaningless in
terms of comparing goalies, while save percentage is merely partially
meaningful.  The first two categories are dominated by how good of a team is
in front of a goalie.  A goalie on a dominating team is going to see, on the
average, far fewer shots and typically lower quality shots than one on a
lesser team.  With fewer shots the GAA *has* to be lower on a high quality
team.  Until this past weekend, BU has spent the entire season at the
top, or near the top, of the polls losing only one game and dominating
the competition.  In comparison, Lowell started slowly and hadn't cracked the
top dozen until after their sweep of BU.  So comparing wins and losses as well
as Goals Against Average really indicates nothing.
 
Save percentage is the only indicator that even has a hope of removing team
dependancies, and even it is flawed.  Quality of shots does depend on the
team in front of you.
 
Fillion has not been perfect this year.  I wouldn't put him in Blair Allison's
company, for example.  His most eggregious failing was in the second game of
a home-and-home early in the season against UMass-Amherst.  Craig Lindsey
started and Fillion mentally assumed he had the night off.  When Lindsey
crashed and burned before getting the hook, Fillion did not play well in
relief.  (Although he pledged not to make that mistake a second time, we
really don't know for sure about that since he's played every minute since
then.)  Without having seen all the Hockey East goalies sufficiently, I pegged
him at somewhere in the middle of the pack as of a few games ago.
 
Clearly, however, he outplayed the BU goalies this past weekend.  He did so
by a large margin over Laroque on Friday.  Laroque didn't just get the hook
to give the Terriers a jumpstart.  And although the margin was a lot closer
with respect to Noble on Saturday, it was a Boston newspaper (not a UML
supporter) that initially referred to Fillion outgoaltending Noble.
 
About the only things that lie more than goaltending statistics are
politicians. :-)
 
And if you don't believe that *all* goaltending stats are team-influenced, I
will offer the following wager.  (Since college players can't be traded, this
unavoidably uses the NHL but still makes the point about goalie stats.)  Prior
to his trade from the Toronto Maple Leafs, goalie Damian Rhodes had compiled
a 2.67 GAA and .916 Save percentage last year and a 2.79 GAA and a .904 save
percentage this year.  Now that he's been traded to lowly Ottawa, is there
anyone that would care to wager that both stats won't drop?  Name your stakes.
 
DaveH
 
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