A big thanks to Keith for clarifying some things, such as how the
crossover and re-seeding was done. Now some comments.
* Rick Comley, as Keith relayed, said that the seedings were done
largely by the computer. Note that the top 12 teams in RPICH (or RPI)
all got in. CC was 13th, SCSU 14th. The difference between CC at
13th and MSU at 12th was .0019 (by RPICH).
* Schedule strength killed CC. Look how they compared with the two
WCHA teams that got in (OWP from Erik's RPICH):
Minn .5236
Wisc .5136
CC .4721
How can this be since all three play in the same conference? Well, to
start, CC played Air Force twice, Miami, and Kent as NC games.
Minnesota played Michigan, MSU, Cornell, and LSSU. Wisconsin played
Michigan, MSU, UAF, and NMU. Right there, CC had a weaker regular
season NC schedule - but each team only had 4 NC games available, just
11% of their total regular season schedule.
On top of that, because of the WCHA scheduling, CC only played
Minnesota twice this year (WCHA teams play 7 teams 4x and 2 teams 2x).
And on top of THAT, by finishing first, CC drew last place MTU and
played them 3x. As Keith says, the fact that CC was upset forced them
to lose out on the opportunity to play some better teams in the WCHA
Final Five which would have boosted their schedule strength some - but
the damage may have already been done.
It certainly appears that the WCHA unbalanced schedule hurts teams,
and also the rating works against teams which finish high in their
conference but are upset early. On the one hand, it seems to make
sense - you should have to win the games you should win - but on the
other hand, it also appears that the combination of all the above
factors dealing with CC's scheduling in 1993-94 did them in.
I would be curious to see how the old way of calculating the RPI might
have affected the ratings.
As well, does the small number of NC games available to WCHA (and to a
lesser extent, CCHA) teams hurt those teams? Now it is VERY important
that you go out and schedule good NC opponents. It would be very bad
if a team like CC were forced to drop their traditional rivalry with
Air Force because of what happened this season.
* The tv selection show was, as expected, mostly fluff. I would have
liked to see more talk about why the seedings were done the way they
were done, instead of a few seconds with every coach they could round
up. I got a strong sense that Lowell's Bruce Crowder was not happy
with his team being sent to East Lansing to face MSU even though
Lowell was likely seeded several spots higher than MSU. Host Frank
Mazzocco made a mistake by asking Bruce about Wisconsin, and Bruce had
to correct him by reminding him Lowell was facing MSU. It happens,
but Bruce's response seemed to indicate his unhappiness with the
proceedings (IMO).
Frank also erred significantly in saying that CC was the first
regular season conference champ not to receive a bid. For starters,
it happened to Harvard in 1992. It also happened to BGSU in 1983 when
the tourney only consisted of 8 teams - maybe Frank meant since the
expansion to 12 teams, but even if so, he was incorrect.
An interesting point that Rick Comley brought up was the head-to-head
record between teams. I believe Rick said that the coaches wanted
each win counted as a point in a team's favor - i.e., UNH beat Lowell
head to head 3-2-0, so instead of UNH getting one point in their
favor, they'd get 3 and Lowell 2 (and for Minn-Wisc, Minn would get 4
and Wisc 0). But I couldn't tell if he was saying that it was done
this way or that this was what was desired.
* Keith said the seeds were originally done thusly by region:
EAST BU, Harv, UNH, UML, RPI, NU
WEST Mich, Minn, LSSU, Wisc, WMU, MSU
I agree with all of these except UNH ahead of UML. Looking at the 5
factors:
UNH UML EDGE TO
RPICH .5543 .5491 UNH
Head-Head 3-2-0 2-3-0 UNH
TUC Win% 9-9-2 .500 7-7-3 .500 EVEN
Last 20 Win% 8-10-2 .450 11-4-5 .675 UML
CommOpp Win% 16-10-2 .603 15-6-6 .667 UML
(TUC is teams under consideration, which I considered to be all of the
teams that made the conf final 4/5/6 + CC & Maine for a total of 21
teams. It may have been slightly different as some teams like MTU
were eliminated.)
What was the deciding factor? Head to head? Comley said that all
five factors were treated equally. UNH won its two factors just
barely, while UML won Last20 and CommOpp pretty significantly. This
proved to be a huge decision, since it was the difference between
getting to stay in the East or going to East Lansing to face
lower-seeded but host MSU. I think I would be pretty unhappy if I
were Lowell.
Looking at this another way, why was Lowell seeded ahead of LSSU when
the crossovers were done? If Lowell and LSSU are swapped, then MSU
hosts LSSU and Lowell plays Northeastern - on a neutral surface. Here
is the Lowell-LSSU comparison:
UML LSSU EDGE TO
RPICH .5491 .5417 UML
Head-Head NONE NONE NONE
TUC Win% 7-7-3 .500 10-9-3 .523 LSSU
Last20 Win% 11-4-5 .675 12-4-4 .700 LSSU
CommOpp Win% 1-0-2 .667 1-0-0 1.000 LSSU
LSSU wins 3-1, but boy was it close. A difference of a tie in Last20,
two ties in CommOpp (only one CommOpp may make it not worth considering),
and one win in TUC Win%. I'd consider the teams in a virtual deadlock.
It may have been better to seed Lowell 4W and LSSU 3E to avoid this
problem.
* A factor that may prove to be big in Albany is that the
Knick has the 200x100 ice surface. Harvard and RPI have just come off
playing two games each on that size rink in Lake Placid. BU and UNH
have not played on it this season. Wisconsin has played several times
on it at UAA, Minn, and SCSU, and WMU has not played on it. But UNH
coach Dick Umile said he was looking forward to it (and he'll have
that size surface in his home rink in a year or two), so it should be
interesting.
* Finally, the seedings set up one first round meeting of teams who
have already met this season. UNH defeated RPI on the road early in
the season.
There are three possible such matchups in the second round, including
two possible rematches of conference championship games. RPI could
meet Harvard again, who is 2-1-0 vs RPI this season. LSSU could meet
Michigan; Michigan has won all 4 meetings. Also, MSU could meet
Minnesota, which won the only meeting.
And if UML and BU make it out of their regionals, they would meet in
the semifinals in St Paul; BU won 3x to Lowell's 1 including defeating
Lowell for the HE championship.
--- ---
Mike Machnik [log in to unmask]
Cabletron Systems, Inc. *HMM* 11/13/93
Opinions expressed in this post are solely those of the poster.
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