NOTE: These are not the actual seedings.  They are my projection of
what the seedings will be after doing some analysis.
 
The tourney selection show is scheduled to be shown on tape on NESN
tonight (Sunday).  NESN said 10:30 pm (Eastern), but since they have
the WCHA championship at 8 pm on tape, it could be later.
SportsChannel New England will also have it on tape at 1:30 am Mon
morning.  I believe it is an hour long.  I expect most of it will be
fluff as usual, but we'll see.
 
First, I seeded the teams so that I ended up with a list of the top
12 regardless of region.  This is because the committee has said that
they first seed 1-12 and then put teams into regions.  RPICH rating
was not the only consideration.  If I thought there was a small enough
difference between two teams' ratings, I looked at other factors.
Thus, the below may approximate RPICH (virtually identical to RPI
rating) but is not exact.
 
1 Boston University
2 Michigan
3 Harvard
4 Minnesota
5 Lake Superior
6 Mass Lowell
7 Wisconsin
8 New Hampshire
9 Western Michigan
10 RPI
11 Michigan State
12 Colorado College/Northeastern
 
This is how it breaks down by conference:
CCHA (4): Michigan, LSSU, WMU, MSU
ECAC (2): Harvard, RPI
HE (3): BU, UML, UNH
WCHA (3): Minnesota, Wisconsin, CC
 
Originally, I had Northeastern as #12 ahead of CC and I have been
suggesting to people that CC won't get in.  Now, I think CC WILL get
in.  More in a minute.
 
Next, I broke the teams up into regions, keeping the teams within
their own region except for CC which was 7W (there were only 5 teams
from the East).  As things stood, RPI would be 5E and MSU 6W, but
since we want RPI to go to Albany and MSU to East Lansing, I shifted
the seedings slightly, swapping RPI to 6W and MSU to 5E.  Then, CC
gets moved to 6E to even out the bracket.
 
I shifted MSU to 5E ahead of 6E CC because I had MSU seeded higher,
and so I reasoned that MSU deserved to play the 4W seed in the first
round rather than the 3W seed (if they were shifted to 6E).
 
So, my regions:
EAST                      WEST
Boston University    1    Michigan
Harvard              2    Minnesota
Mass Lowell          3    Lake Superior
New Hampshire        4    Wisconsin
Michigan State       5    Western Michigan
Colorado College     6    RPI
 
OK, some justification.  Too much to type it all in now, but this
should give you an idea of how I came up with what I did.  First, note
that I did NOT take into account the last minute revelation that the
committee may be counting reg season tourney games longer than 65 mins
as ties.  Also, I did not adjust Maine's 3 wins with Jeff Tory to be
losses, as I think the committee may do, but I did consider this in
the back of my head when evaluating their numbers against those of
other teams.
 
* BU over Harvard because BU was far and away #1.  Harvard's win over
BU in the Beanpot doesn't come into play
 
* Michigan far above LSSU/Minn; does not matter what happens in CCHA
final as far as #1W seed.
 
* Maine lost out to almost everybody when it came to factors other
than RPI rating and SOS (consider OWP from RPICH).  Just playing the
toughest schedule is not enough; you have to win those games too.  If
the 3 wins over PC are counted as losses, that gives Maine a below
.500 record at 14-18-4.
 
* Minn-LSSU for 2-3 seed in the West is a virtual tie.  Minn had a
better record against common opp and in their last 20, but LSSU had a
better win % and *was* 1-0-0 head-head.  If that becomes a tie, then
Minn seems to have the edge no matter what LSSU does in the CCHA
final, but I'll leave open the possibility that LSSU could still be
seeded 2W anyway since it is close.  My call is Minn 2W, LSSU 3W.
 
* Harvard vs UNH was actually pretty close, but after other factors
gave the nod to Harvard, I then compared UNH with Lowell (among other
teams).  UNH beat Lowell head to head 3-2-0, and had a slightly higher
RPI rating, yet UML had a better win%, record in last 20 games and
record vs common opp.  I determined that the edge in other factors
gave UML the nod, but I leave open the possibility that the committee
will interpret it differently and seed UNH 3E and UML 4E.
 
* WMU 5W over MSU (which was shifted): WMU had the edge in nearly all
factors including RPI rating.
 
* MSU over CC: MSU had a better record in their last 20, vs common
opp, and OWP was higher.
 
* CC over NU for 12th spot: At first glance, NU has the higher RPI and
this could carry them.  However, CC's win% is .654 to NU's .592, and
NU is rated higher only because of schedule strength.  CC carries most
of the other factors.  That led me to slide CC in as the last seed.
 
That's just a few of my reasons for putting teams where I did.  The
committee may interpret numbers differently than I did - and note that
all of the numbers the committee uses are available to anyone who
wants to take the time to figure them out.  I will be curious to see
how close I came to being right this year...usually I'm not far off.
But unlike last year, things are very tight...I think the committee
has its work cut out for them this time around.
---                                                                 ---
Mike Machnik                                          [log in to unmask]
Cabletron Systems, Inc.                                  *HMM* 11/13/93
Opinions expressed in this post are solely those of the poster.