A few posters recently have made some inferences about the seedings in the
NC$$ Tournament based solely on the RPICH rating.  While this is the best
indicator of who goes where, I expect the committee to use it more as a guide-
line this year rather than the Bible.  Why?  For the following reasons:
 
1) While BU and UM are clearly miles ahead of everyone else in the RPICH
   rating, there is only a .03 separation between #3 New Hampshire and #16
   Clarkson (the gap between #2 Michigan and #3 New Hampshire is almost this
   large).  The upcoming conference tournament finals this week can have a
   big impact if the separation is that small.  Case in point:  #12 Northern
   Michigan plays Michigan Tech tonight, while #13 Michigan State plays
   Bowling Green on Friday.  If both win, Northern goes on to play Minnesota
   while Michigan State plays Lake Superior.  In the overriding category of
   opponents' win percentage, MSU wins this duel hands down (since MTU has
   a losing record vs. BG's slightly-over-.500, while LSSU has a better record
   than Minnesota).  Would it be enough to overtake NMU?  Probably.  The
   separation between the two is very small.  So a win or two or a loss or
   two in the conference tourneys can have a great impact on the RPICH.  But
   it's only one game out of a 34-or-35 game season.
 
2) The selection committee has pretty much already stated that each conference
   gets two teams.  Since the only ECAC team in the top 12 is Harvard, that
   would mean that someone in the top 12 ain't goin'.  I would suspect that
   that would be a Hockey East team, most probably Maine or Northeastern. I
   think the other three are pretty much locks to get in (BU, UML, UNH).  The
   odds of a third ECAC team getting in are slim, so someone's getting four.
   The other three leagues will all have legitimate claims to getting four,
   but, IMO, it comes down to the WCHA or the CCHA.
 
So, let's look at the bubble teams.  They are:
                St. Cloud St.
                Northern Michigan
                Western Michigan
                Colorado College
                Michigan State
                Miami
                Maine
                Northeastern
 
From the way I see it, nine slots are taken.  3 HE (BU, UML, UNH), 2 ECAC
(Harvard and the 2nd place team, unless Harvard loses, then it's Harvard and
whoever wins the ECAC tournament), 2 CCHA (UM, LSSU), and 2 WCHA (Minn., Wisc.).
The other three slots are going to depend primarily on the outcome of two
games: Wisconsin-St. Cloud and WMU-Miami (though you may want to lump the
MSU-BG and MSU (if they win)-LSSU matchup in there as well).  (Please note
that these are my opinions and don't reflect those of my employer or my parents.
)  Should St. Cloud beat Wisconsin, they should get a bid.  A Wisconsin victory
opens the door for CC, unless NMU wins the tournament (or MTU).  WMU or Miami
can get a bid if they beat the other and UM (I'd give Miami the better shot
here since WMU hasn't come close to beating UM this year).  MSU most likely
needs to win both games it's involved in, or at least keep LSSU close.  Vic-
tories by the favorites in the Western tournaments opens the door for the two
Eastern schools, Maine and Northeastern (though I think that Northeastern has
the better shot).
 
When it gets to seedings, BU and UM are automatic #1's.  Expect LSSU to be no
worse than the West 3 seed (and they have a legit shot at the 2 seed, depending
on the winner of the WCHA tournament).  If RPI or MSU gets in, expect them to
be seeded such that they will play at home (i.e. MSU would get a low East seed
and RPI a low West seed).  Beyond those two, I don't see a lot of shifting of
regions.  Right now, you couldn't pay me enough to be on the committee.
 
G. M. Finniss
Michigan State University
WVU '87, UTenn '92, MSU who the hell knows when?
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