This is an early-bird special, just for HOCKEY-L. I'd appreciate comments and/or
questions (email me, don't ask the list) from you all. I'll summarize the
responses
in mid-December when the first official TCHCR is released.
For the many of you who have been following and supporting TCHCR, here is what
has
changed from last year. I simplified the game outcome measure as much as
possible,
so only winning and losing count--goal margin, site, OT, etc are ignored. I
sacrificed
some accuracy for simplicity. The other major change is that the basis team has
been
eliminated. This year, the weighted sum of the ratings is zero (and a BIG thanks
to
Tim Danehy for doing the math for me to make this possible!). I hope no one
suffers
from a fear of negative numbers (nega-numa-phobia?), because TCHCR has them for
the first
time.
For those of you who have never heard of TCHCR before, it is the longest-running
mathematical ranking of Division I college hockey teams (yes, a grand-daddy at
age 4).
Computing TCHCR involves collecting all of the Division I results, building a
big
graph that represents who has played whom, and then a bunch of number crunching
to
get the ratings. It is not a poll, but a RATING.
A disclaimer: I may be changing the algorithm for schedule computation in the
future.
We (Tim, Mike and I) are studying the "connectedness" of college hockey.
Depending on who
meets whom in the Christmas tournaments, it may become necessary to reduce or
alter
the way the schedule aspect of the rating is computed. For example, no ECAC team
will
play a WCHA team unless Minnesota & St. Lawrence meet in the Mariucci. Tim
already has a plan
prepared; we just have to decide how much of it to implement, based on how the
match-ups
fall.
Again, comments and questions welcome, as always.
Keith [log in to unmask]
(Obviously, this does not include the Tuesday night results.)
================================================================================
======
The College Hockey Computer Rating
compiled by Keith Instone
Includes games on 11/21/92. Last week's ranking includes games on 11/15/92.
Last Division I
Rank Week Team Record Performance Schedule Rating
1 1 Harvard 4 0 1 80.00 2 47.83 3 127.83
2 7 Yale 3 0 1 75.00 3 40.20 6 115.20
3 4 Maine 6 0 1 85.71 1 -0.70 27 85.01
4 8 Brown 3 2 0 20.00 17 57.83 2 77.83
5 6 St Lawrence 6 1 0 71.43 4 0.40 25 71.82
6 3 Alaska-Anchorage 5 1 0 66.67 5 -12.60 32 54.06
7 2 Denver 7 2 1 50.00 8 2.43 22 52.43
8 10 Wisconsin 7 2 1 50.00 8 -5.81 30 44.19
9 18 RPI 3 2 2 14.29 18 28.99 9 43.28
10 19 Alaska-Fairbanks 5 1 0 66.67 5 -28.35 37 38.32
11 13 Minnesota-Duluth 5 3 0 25.00 14 11.11 21 36.11
12 5 Boston College 3 3 2 0.00 20 28.71 11 28.71
13 11 UMass-Lowell 6 3 0 33.33 11 -7.98 31 25.35
14 28 Miami 7 2 1 50.00 8 -25.08 36 24.92
15 14 St Cloud 4 4 0 0.00 20 24.37 15 24.37
16 9 Vermont 3 3 1 0.00 20 24.25 16 24.25
17 15 Army 1 1 0 0.00 20 20.68 18 20.68
18 17 Cornell 1 2 1 -25.00 29 44.40 4 19.40
19 26 Michigan 5 2 2 33.33 11 -14.89 33 18.44
20 23 New Hampshire 4 3 2 11.11 19 1.85 24 12.96
21 34 Union 1 3 0 -50.00 36 62.65 1 12.65
22 30 Boston University 2 3 1 -16.67 27 28.05 12 11.38
23 35 Northeastern 5 3 0 25.00 14 -15.37 34 9.63
24 32 Lake Superior 6 1 1 62.50 7 -59.35 44 3.15
25 21 Minnesota 3 3 4 0.00 20 2.18 23 2.18
26 27 Clarkson 3 3 1 0.00 20 0.40 26 0.40
27 31 Providence 2 6 1 -44.44 35 44.35 5 -0.09
28 12 Michigan Tech 5 5 0 0.00 20 -1.09 28 -1.09
29 22 Western Michigan 6 3 1 30.00 13 -38.81 39 -8.81
30 33 Princeton 1 3 0 -50.00 36 40.20 7 -9.80
31 20 Merrimack 2 5 1 -37.50 32 23.80 17 -13.70
32 36 Michigan State 5 3 0 25.00 14 -40.36 40 -15.36
33 16 Colorado College 3 6 0 -33.33 30 14.10 19 -19.23
34 29 Dartmouth 1 3 0 -50.00 36 25.45 13 -24.55
35 25 North Dakota 2 8 0 -60.00 40 28.74 10 -31.26
36 24 Northern Michigan 1 7 2 -60.00 40 24.74 14 -35.26
37 38 Ferris State 2 4 0 -33.33 30 -4.19 29 -37.52
38 39 Colgate 0 6 0 -100.00 44 35.72 8 -64.28
39 37 Air Force 0 4 1 -80.00 43 11.48 20 -68.52
40 41 Kent 4 6 0 -20.00 28 -49.34 43 -69.34
41 40 Ohio State 2 5 1 -37.50 32 -34.93 38 -72.43
42 42 Bowling Green 3 7 0 -40.00 34 -45.94 42 -85.94
43 43 Illinois-Chicago 2 7 1 -50.00 36 -45.26 41 -95.26
44 44 Notre Dame 1 9 1 -72.73 42 -24.75 35 -97.47
PERFORMANCE is based on won-lost record only; game sites and margin of victory
are not considered, for example. Performance ranges from +100 (for an undefeated
and untied team) to -100 (for a winless and untied team), with a .500 winning
percentage getting a zero performance.
SCHEDULE is the average rating of a team's opponents.
RATING is the sum of performance and schedule and represents an evaluation
of how each team has done so far with respect to the rest of college hockey.
Based on 166 Division I games.
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