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The first installment of CHODR - the College Hockey Offensive/Devensive
Ratings - is now available at http:\\it.stlawu.edu/~chodr. Ratinga are
based on games through 11/21/04 and forecasts cover games from 11/22/04
to 11/28/04.
NEW THIS YEAR: We're trying a new scheme for determining the overall
rating (old method was offensive ratgin/defensive rating). The new
method involves predicting scoring rates and win probabilities for each
team playing a balanced schedule against all other Division I teams -
then computing an expected winning percentage for each team under such a
schedule.
Initial results appear below and more information can be found on the
website.
Robin Lock
[log in to unmask]
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Division I Offense Defense
Expected
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Rating Rank
PCT
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1 Minnesota 8 3 0 4.70 2 1.57 4 0.855
2 Denver 6 5 0 6.26 1 2.50 23 0.837
3 Wisconsin 9 3 0 3.76 10 1.34 1 0.823
4 Michigan 9 2 1 4.49 3 1.85 6 0.808
5 Colorado College 8 2 0 3.53 13 1.50 2 0.780
6 Maine 9 6 0 3.84 8 1.94 7 0.744
7 North Dakota 7 5 2 3.49 16 1.83 5 0.728
8 Boston College 4 2 2 3.64 11 1.96 9 0.723
9 Cornell 4 2 2 2.96 29 1.56 3 0.714
10 New Hampshire 8 2 1 3.90 6 2.34 17 0.694
11 Michigan State 5 6 1 3.38 18 1.99 11 0.692
12 Alaska-Fairbanks 5 3 0 3.92 4 2.53 24 0.670
13 Boston University 7 3 0 3.64 12 2.39 19 0.661
14 Miami 5 7 0 3.91 5 2.65 27 0.653
15 St. Cloud State 6 5 1 2.95 31 1.95 8 0.649
16 Northern Michigan 5 3 2 3.34 20 2.26 14 0.646
17 Nebraska-Omaha 7 4 1 3.44 17 2.34 18 0.646
18 Ohio State 9 4 1 3.35 19 2.27 15 0.646
19 Lake Superior 3 6 1 2.82 34 1.99 10 0.626
20 St. Lawrence 6 6 1 3.26 22 2.47 22 0.606
21 Northeastern 5 5 1 3.53 14 2.75 32 0.598
22 Minnesota State 5 5 2 3.21 24 2.53 25 0.591
23 Minnesota-Duluth 6 4 2 3.31 21 2.69 30 0.581
24 Bowling Green 6 3 1 3.79 9 3.22 40 0.567
25 Western Michigan 5 6 1 3.19 25 2.84 33 0.546
26 Providence 4 6 1 2.83 33 2.54 26 0.543
27 Massachusetts 6 5 1 2.73 38 2.46 21 0.540
28 Mass.-Lowell 4 5 0 3.26 23 2.99 34 0.534
29 Colgate 8 4 0 2.52 41 2.41 20 0.519
30 Alaska-Anchorage 5 6 1 2.79 37 2.67 29 0.518
31 Union 7 5 0 2.67 39 2.65 28 0.505
32 Vermont 6 4 3 2.15 44 2.25 13 0.489
33 Ferris State 4 9 1 2.89 32 3.08 38 0.478
34 Niagara 5 8 0 2.80 35 3.01 35 0.474
35 Wayne State 7 4 1 2.98 27 3.23 41 0.469
36 Michigan Tech 1 10 1 3.85 7 4.15 50 0.468
37 Rensselaer 6 6 1 2.79 36 3.06 37 0.467
38 Harvard 3 2 1 2.28 43 2.70 31 0.442
39 Notre Dame 2 5 4 1.87 48 2.31 16 0.434
40 Alabama-Huntsville 6 2 2 2.97 28 3.55 43 0.431
41 Merrimack 3 8 0 2.95 30 3.55 44 0.429
42 Bemidji State 5 3 0 2.36 42 3.01 36 0.413
43 Princeton 3 4 1 3.51 15 4.33 52 0.412
44 Clarkson 3 7 1 2.99 26 3.80 46 0.407
45 Dartmouth 4 4 0 1.52 54 2.12 12 0.400
46 Canisius 6 5 1 1.90 47 3.10 39 0.335
47 Mercyhurst 4 6 0 2.64 40 4.16 51 0.328
48 Brown 2 4 1 1.91 46 3.58 45 0.288
49 Air Force 4 4 2 1.63 51 3.31 42 0.272
50 Holy Cross 3 3 3 1.69 50 4.14 49 0.211
51 Quinnipiac 4 4 1 1.53 53 3.96 47 0.204
52 Connecticut 1 9 1 1.70 49 4.66 55 0.179
53 Sacred Heart 4 6 0 1.94 45 5.75 56 0.151
54 Robert Morris 2 8 1 1.27 56 4.34 53 0.148
55 Army 2 6 2 1.12 57 4.09 48 0.142
56 Yale 0 8 0 1.50 55 6.28 57 0.095
57 American Int'l 1 5 1 0.84 58 4.44 54 0.093
58 Bentley 2 7 3 1.60 52 6.76 58 0.090
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Average Team: 2.77 2.77
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Home Ice Advantage = *// 1.078 Goals Per Game.
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Mean Scoring Rate: 2.77
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