Using the CHODR ratings (found at http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr and the
"Off" and "Def" columns below) we can forecast the expected scoring
rates for this coming weekend's NCAA tourney games - then use those
scoring rates to predict the probability of each team advancing to the
next round (assuming Poisson distributions of scores).  The results are
given below

WOMEN'S FROZEN FOUR     Off     Def     Round1  Round2
1       Minnesota       4.96    1.13    0.785   0.491
2       Harvard         3.82    1.00    0.743   0.370
3       St. Lawrence    3.48    1.63    0.257   0.063
4       Dartmouth       4.00    1.70    0.215   0.076






EAST
        Off     Def     Round1  Round2
1       Maine   3.50    1.40    0.823   0.567
2       Ohio State      3.44    2.34    0.430   0.144
3       Wisconsin       3.04    1.78    0.570   0.231
4       Harvard         2.86    2.58    0.177   0.059






NORTHEAST       Off     Def     Round1  Round2
1       Boston College  3.91    1.63    0.910   0.641
2       Michigan        3.58    2.26    0.520   0.182
3       New Hampshire   3.80    2.49    0.480   0.158
4       Niagara         2.65    3.25    0.089   0.017






MIDWEST
        Off     Def     Round1  Round2
1       Minnesota       4.77    2.24    0.757   0.429
2       Minnesota-Duluth        4.39    2.12    0.640   0.350
3       Michigan State  3.32    2.12    0.359   0.146
4       Notre Dame      2.86    2.29    0.242   0.075






WEST
        Off     Def     Round1  Round2
1       North Dakota    4.76    1.74    0.955   0.746
2       Denver  3.64    2.28    0.575   0.152
3       Miami   3.32    2.41    0.424   0.090
4       Holy Cross      2.26    3.24    0.040   0.007


--
Robin H. Lock
Burry Professor of Statistics
Department of Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics
St. Lawrence University
Canton, NY  13617
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