My personal opinion is that I believe it unlikely that Maine will NOT be a
TUC.  Consider how it would hurt teams that played Maine and did well
against them.  It is not the fault of those teams that Maine decided it
would decline a bid.  Remember what happened in 1994.  Maine forfeited a
bunch of games, but the original results of those games were used when
drawing up the seeds.  The teams that lost to Maine or tied them should not
have benefited by Maine forfeiting the games, and they did not.  Here, the
situation is similar.  The goal is to consider how the other teams actually
played, and beating a good Maine team even if they wish not to receive a
bid is part of that consideration.
 
I don't think it is that different from a case where a team might perform
well enough to receive a bid but decides to decline a bid for any reason at
all.  Look at what happens in DivIII.  The NESCAC schools (Bowdoin,
Middlebury, Colby, etc.) can only compete in one tourney: their conference
tourney or the NCAAs.  If they choose their conference tourney, they
effectively have declined a bid to the NCAAs.  (And until recently, they
could not even compete in the NCAA tourney at all.)  But that doesn't
negate the performances that other teams vying for a bid had against those
NESCAC teams.
 
So, I don't think it should or will matter that Maine said it does not wish
to be considered for a bid.  We don't actually know yet what will happen,
but I have to believe the committee will consider games against Maine when
ranking the other teams.  That's just because it makes sense to me, but I
believe there is also precedent with the NESCAC schools.
 
Now, if Maine does get placed on probation by the NCAA in the future, we
will have to find out what happens in that case too.  It could be that
being placed on probation by the NCAA (and not being eligible for the
tourney) will mean that up front, the committee will decide not to include
Maine as a TUC.  I wonder what has happened in the past with hoop teams
that have gone on probation.
 
Speculation about whether Maine might be "offered" a bid and then decline
it, and how the bid might be offered to another team, is just that at this
point.  We don't know.  I can see at least three possible situations:
 
1) Seeds are done up as if Maine can compete.  If they receive a bid, they
could be extended one as a formality and then reject it, and then it will
be extended to someone else.  How will they determine who to extend it to?
If Maine is one of only two HE teams, then the bid could be extended to
another HE team to meet the quota of two teams per conference, or it could
be extended to the next highest ranked team (the so-called "number 13"
team, the highest team not among the original 12 teams chosen).  If there
are three or more HE teams, then the bid could simply be extended to
"number 13".
 
2) Seeds are done up with Maine as a TUC but as if Maine cannot receive a
bid.  They would just be skipped over when the teams are chosen.
 
3) Seeds are done up without Maine as a TUC.
 
Whatever happens, I wouldn't expect Maine to suddenly accept a bid if
extended one.  Deron and Wayne have adequately explained why.
 
---                                                                   ---
Mike Machnik                   [log in to unmask]            *HMM* 11/13/93
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