Once again, it's time for the ECAC Playoff Permutatuions!  Not a lot of drama
this year, as most teams can finish in any of just three or four places, a
far cry from the usual confusion where teams can finish in a range of seven
or eight.  Not that I'm complaining much, as it makes the math a lot easier.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/2017/ecac.cgiframe.shtml

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
      competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
      This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
      standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
      some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
      standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
      lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
      more than just those two teams tied.  For instance, Dartmouth wins the
      head-to-head tiebreaker against Princeton with a 1-0-1 record; however,
      in a three-way tie involving these two and Yale, Dartmouth would actually
      be seeded lower than Princeton.  If a listed tiebreaker result depends on
      more than just those two teams being tied, it is marked with an asterisk:

           Dartmouth could win or lose* against Princeton

For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
      tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack".  Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties.  For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.


Without further ado, here's how things shape up:

Union:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Colgate, at Cornell.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches first with a pair of wins.
      BEST CASE:  First.
      WORST CASE:  Drops to third if they lose twice, Cornell does not lose to
      Rensselaer, and Harvard gets at least two points.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Cornell; could win or lose against Harvard.

Harvard:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Two points will give the Crimson second place.
      BEST CASE:  Wraps up first place with a sweep if Union does not 
win twice.
      WORST CASE:  Finishes third if they lose twice and Cornell gets at least
      three points.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Cornell and St. Lawrence; could win or lose against
      Union.

Cornell:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Rensselaer, Union.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Would guarantee third place with two points.
      BEST CASE:  Climbs to first with a sweep if Union does not beat 
Colgate and
      Harvard gets no more than one point.
      WORST CASE:  Falls to fourth with two losses if St. Lawrence 
gets at least
      three points.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Union and St. Lawrence; loses to Harvard.

St. Lawrence:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fourth by picking up one point.
      BEST CASE:  Would take third with a sweep if Cornell gets no 
more than one
      point.
      WORST CASE:  Slides to fifth if they get swept and Quinnipiac wins twice.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac; loses to Harvard and Cornell.

Quinnipiac:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Yale, Brown.
      ON THEIR OWN:  One win gives Quinnipiac fifth place.
      BEST CASE:  Rises to fourth with a sweep if St. Lawrence loses twice.
      WORST CASE:  Would finish sixth if they don't win either game 
and Clarkson
      sweeps.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to St. Lawrence; could win or lose against Clarkson.

Clarkson:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Guarantees sixth with two points.
      BEST CASE:  Wraps up fifth with a sweep if Quinnipiac does not win either
      game.
      WORST CASE:  Drops to seventh with two losses if Yale gets at least three
      points.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Yale; could win or lose against Quinnipiac

Yale:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Gets seventh with two points on the weekend.
      BEST CASE:  Clinches sixth with a sweep if Clarkson gets no more than one
      point.
      WORST CASE:  Falls to tenth if they lose twice, Dartmouth and Colgate get
      at least three points each, and Princeton does not lose to Brown.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Clarkson and Dartmouth; loses to Colgate 
and Princeton.

Dartmouth:
      THIS WEEKEND:  St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Would clinch eighth with a sweep.
      BEST CASE:  Climbs to seventh with two wins if Yale gets no more than one
      point.
      WORST CASE:  Would end up in tenth if they lose twice and Colgate and
      Princeton each get at least two points.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Yale; could win or lose against Colgate; could win
      or lose* against Princeton.

Colgate:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Union, Rensselaer.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Two wins would wrap up ninth place.
      BEST CASE:  Takes seventh with a sweep if Yale loses twice and Dartmouth
      gets no more than two points.
      WORST CASE:  Would slide to tenth if they lose twice and Princeton does
      not.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale and Princeton; could win or lose against Dart-
      mouth.

Princeton:
      THIS WEEKEND:  Brown, Yale.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched tenth and can do no better without
      help.
      BEST CASE:  Would finish seventh with a sweep of Colgate does not win
      twice, Yale also loses to Quinnipiac, and Dartmouth gets no more than two
      points.
      WORST CASE:  Tenth.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale; loses to Colgate; could win* or lose against
      Dartmouth.

Rensselaer:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Cornell, at Colgate.
      ON THEIR OWN:  One point will give the Engineers eleventh place.
      BEST CASE:  Eleventh.
      WORST CASE:  Falls to twelfth If they lose twice and Brown sweeps.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown

Brown:
      THIS WEEKEND:  At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
      ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth without help.
      BEST CASE:  Finishes eleventh with a sweep if Rensselaer loses twice.
      WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
      TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Rensselaer.


Bill Fenwick
[log in to unmask]