Sorry if I didn't explain that well enough.  The ASSUMPTION made was that
the #1 seed in each conference tournament will win the tournament, until
we have better information (e.g. Niagara lost and UAH won the tournament,
so UAH is IN).

Sacred Heart just serves as a place-holder for the Atlantic Hockey tourney
champ, that school will be the #15 seed, and nobody else from AH will make
it.  #1 seed St. Lawrence is in a sticky wicket, if they go 0-for-2, I'm
doubtful that they get an at-large (1 & 1 might be enough but there are a
lot of variables).  If Wisconsin, Quinnipiac, Dartmouth, and/or LSSU wins
their tournament, they just knock out the lowest remaining at-large team. 
(I believe that if MTU were to win the WCHA, they would probably then also
be deserving as an at-large, and thus not really knock anybody out.)

This is why I'd say if you're Miami or Maine, now's a good time to get
religion.  You need the tournaments to be won by teams who'd get an
at-large bid anyway, since you can't do anything to improve on your
current 13 and 14 seeds.  And why if St Lawrence doesn't win the ECAC,
they probably should root for Clarkson to do so.  (Ouch...like BU rooting
for BC, or Michigan for Ohio State!)

I agree, now is when John Whalen's You Be the Committee is great fun for
those with time on their hands.  I'm just trying to capture a snapshot on
the basis of "most likely" outcomes.  My real interest is in how the
committee manages the matchups and regional placings, which frankly may
not be that interesting given that probably only 1 host school will make
the tournament.  (Despite the comments of the guys on the CHA broadcast
yesterday, I don't see a strongly likely scenario that gives Denver an
at-large bid - although John or others may be able to point it out.  It
probably involves Air Force winning AH and Wisconsin winning exactly two
games in St. Paul, plus a very small road bonus, 0.01 or less--as the road
bonus grows, DU loses ground to the Maines, Miamis, & MSUs, of the world.)
 Frankly, the pairing exercise is much more interesting if DU makes it,
you have to figure out how to get them at home and not "screw" some highly
ranked school.

Mike


Rowe, Thomas wrote:
> Well......  One (pretty minor) caveat here.  Its just a wee tad broader
> than below.  Unless I am misunderstanding something (not the first time)
> the automatic bid from all 6 conferences doesn't go to the conference
> winner, it goes to the post-season conference tourney winner.  Hence,
> even though you began this "if the season ended today" you still have to
> account for a dark horse making a run.  Wisconsin had a dreadful season
> for a National Champ, but miracles on ice do happen and they could still
> wind up with the automatic WCHA bid.  Not holding my breath, though.
> :-)
>
> Tom Rowe
>