Time, I think, to revive Ken's Ratings for American College Hockey....
If you just want to see the numbers, skip down a couple of paragraphs. You
won't miss anything important :-)
In an attempt to be as different as possible from CHODR :-), my ratings
depend only on the result of each game, win, loss or tie, and not on the
score (or on shootouts). The ratings given below are on an odds scale; if
you divide the ratings for any two teams, you'll get KRACH's best guess at
the odds in favour of the higher-ranked team defeating the lower-ranked on
neutral ice. For example, CC are rated at 457 and Denver at 215, indicating
odds of 457/215 = 2.13 to 1 in CC's favor, or a probability of
2.13/(2.13+1)=0.68 of a CC win.
The ratings are figured out under the assumption that "odds multiply": if
there's a 2-1 chance of A defeating B and a 3-1 chance of B defeating C,
then there's a 2*3=6 to 1 chance of A defeating C. Under this assumption,
the ratings are calculated so as to "best fit" the results observed so far
(by Maximum Likelihood, if anyone cares), which allows the strength of a
team's opposition to assist in determining that team's rating. I have
arranged things so that a .500 team playing "average-strength" opposition
will have a rating of 100, from which you can deduce that Michigan Tech's
opposition must have been a bit stronger than average.
On to the numbers. The table ought to describe itself, more or less. The
W-L-T figures relate to games played against other teams on this list (and
thus ignore games against Canadian or non-Div. 1 teams); the column headed
Results tells you, for example, that Maine played #4 BU twice this weekend,
winning one and tying one.
Rank Team W L T Rating Results
=======================================================
1. Maine 11- 0- 4 501 4:W 4:T
2. Colorado College 12- 2 457 17:W 17:W
3. Minnesota 9- 2- 1 330
4. Boston Univ 7- 3- 3 264 1:L 1:T
5. Michigan State 11- 3- 1 243 42:W 36:W
6. Michigan 9- 4 230 43:W
7. New Hampshire 8- 3- 2 218 31:T 31:W
8. Denver 9- 5 215 28:W 28:W
9. Brown 6- 2 214 19:L
10. Bowling Green 9- 4 205 26:W 26:L
11. Northeastern 8- 4- 2 191 34:L 34:W
12. RPI 6- 3 181 30:W
13. Wisconsin 8- 6- 1 165 23:L 23:W
14. Vermont 7- 4 157 37:W 37:L
15. Clarkson 5- 3- 2 152 35:W
16. Dartmouth 3- 2- 1 151
17. Michigan Tech 6- 6- 2 145 2:L 2:L
18. Western Michigan 8- 5- 1 135 36:W 42:W
19. Harvard 4- 4- 1 122 9:W
20. Colgate 5- 4- 1 108 27:L 21:W
21. Yale 3- 4- 1 108 32:T 20:L
22. Miami 7- 7 105 41:W 41:W
23. St Cloud 6- 8 104 13:W 13:L
24. Mass Lowell 6- 5- 3 102 38:W 38:L
25. North Dakota 5- 8- 1 101 39:L 39:L
26. Ferris State 5- 5- 2 96 10:L 10:W
27. Princeton 4- 5 95 20:W 32:W
28. Northern Mich 6- 8 90 8:L 8:L
29. Illinois-Chicago 4- 6- 3 89
30. Union 3- 4- 1 85 12:L
31. Providence 4- 7- 1 79 7:T 7:L
32. Cornell 1- 3- 2 79 21:T 27:L
33. Merrimack 4- 6- 1 79 44:W 44:W
34. Boston College 3- 8- 2 74 11:W 11:L
35. St Lawrence 3- 6- 1 73 15:L
36. Lake Superior 3- 6- 3 69 18:L 5:L
37. Minnesota-Duluth 4- 9- 2 66 14:L 14:W
38. Air Force 2- 5- 1 62 24:L 24:W
39. Alaska-Anchorage 4-10 54 25:W 25:W
40. Army 1- 4 53
41. Alaska-Fairbanks 2- 9- 1 50 22:L 22:L
42. Ohio State 0- 9- 2 34 5:L 18:L
43. Notre Dame 1-11 25 6:L
44. Mass Amherst 0-10- 1 20 33:L 33:L
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Ken Butler | at [log in to unmask]
Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics | or [log in to unmask]
Simon Fraser University |---------------------------------
Burnaby, B.C., Canada V5A 1S6 | Ora asht nje pikerisht.
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