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Date: | Wed, 23 Feb 1994 00:57:28 PST |
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This week, Harvard managed to win twice and *still* fall two places!
KRACH was rather more impressed with Wisconsin's duo of wins over
NMU and CC's three-out-of-four with St Cloud. Lowell, and to a lesser
extent LSSU, also move up after successful weekends. Curiously,
Michigan State's impressive win over UM moved them up only one place.
(The reason probably is that out of the five teams immediately ahead
of MSU last week, four also met with success this time around).
Down in the cellar, Dartmouth's surprise defeat of Brown moves them
up two to 41st; after that loss, Brown slips seven places and out of
the top 20.
Rank Last Team W L T Rating Week's results
===================================================================
1. (1) Michigan 28- 3- 1 12.145 23:W 10:L
2. (2) Boston U 21- 7- 1 11.367 15:T 15:W
3. (4) Colorado Coll 20- 9- 3 11.047 13:W 13:T
4. (7) Wisconsin 20-11- 1 11.039 8:W 8:W
5. (3) Harvard 17- 4- 2 10.948 41:W 29:W
6. (10) Mass-Lowell 18- 6- 7 10.946 27:W 27:W
7. (9) Lake Superior 20- 9- 4 10.868 14:T 14:W
8. (6) Northern Mich 18-13- 1 10.797 4:L 4:L
9. (5) Minnesota 17-11- 4 10.792 16:L 16:L
10. (11) Michigan State 17- 9- 4 10.780 1:W
11. (8) Northeastern 17- 9- 5 10.775 26:L 26:W
12. (14) New Hampshire 17-11- 2 10.646 20:T 20:W
13. (12) St Cloud 15-11- 4 10.604 3:L 3:T
14. (13) W Michigan 17-10- 3 10.533 7:T 7:L
15. (15) Maine 14-12- 4 10.524 2:T 2:L
16. (18) Alaska-Anchorage 14-14- 2 10.455 9:W 9:W
17. (16) RPI 15- 6- 4 10.416 43:T 38:W
18. (20) Alaska-Fairbanks 16-10 10.246 45:W
19. (22) Bowling Green 15-12- 2 10.237 35:W 23:W
20. (23) Boston College 12-13- 4 10.217 12:T 12:L
21. (21) Denver 14-16- 2 10.196 22:W 22:L
22. (24) Minnesota-Duluth 12-17- 3 10.131 21:L 21:W
23. (19) Miami 14-13- 1 10.121 1:L 19:L
24. (17) Brown 12- 7- 4 10.100 29:T 41:L
25. (25) Clarkson 12- 8- 4 10.003 39:L 31:W
26. (27) Merrimack 11-14- 2 9.997 11:W 11:L
27. (26) Providence 11-15- 3 9.954 6:L 6:L
28. (30) North Dakota 10-19- 3 9.928 30:W 30:W
29. (28) Vermont 10- 9- 6 9.844 24:T 5:L
30. (29) Michigan Tech 9-21- 5 9.740 28:L 28:L
31. (31) Colgate 11-11- 2 9.650 40:W 25:L
32. (32) Ferris State 11-20- 1 9.505 36:L 36:W
33. (38) Union 8- 9- 3 9.307 38:W 43:W
34. (36) Ill-Chicago 9-21- 2 9.288 37:W 37:W
35. (33) Notre Dame 7-20- 4 9.212 19:L
36. (37) Ohio State 5-16- 5 9.163 32:W 32:L
37. (34) Kent 9-21- 2 9.106 34:L 34:L
38. (35) Princeton 7-12- 3 9.051 33:L 17:L
39. (39) Cornell 5-13- 5 9.048 25:W 40:L
40. (40) St Lawrence 9-17 8.931 31:L 39:W
41. (43) Dartmouth 4-18- 1 8.385 5:L 24:W
42. (41) Air Force 4-14 8.304
43. (42) Yale 4-18- 1 8.192 17:T 33:L
44. (44) Mass-Amherst 1- 6 7.780
45. (45) Army 1-13 7.034 18:L
-----------------------------------------------------------
KRACH works along the following lines:
The key is the relationship between ratings and probability. Given the
ratings of two teams, first work out the difference d. The probability
of the higher-rated team winning a game on neutral ice is then:
Rating difference Probability
0.0 0.5
0.2 0.55
0.5 0.62
1.0 0.73
1.5 0.82
2.0 0.88
3.0 0.95
4.0 0.98
5.0 0.99
(or, as a formula: prob=1/(1+exp(-d))).
The ratings are then chosen so that the observed win percentage for each
team is equal to the expected win percentage, which is the average win
probability over all the team's opponents. The better a team's
opponents, the fewer games they will be expected to win.
As a result, a team can achieve a high rating by doing well against
average opposition, or by doing averagely against good opposition.
--
Ken Butler
[log in to unmask]
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