Although all ten ECAC playoff teams are known right now, there is still a
lot of jockeying for better spots left to do.  Since the picture is a bit
confusing, I've figured out the best and worst that each team could finish
in the conference, along with what they have to do to clinch a spot or move
up.
 
Let's get the easy ones out of the way first.  No matter what happens this
weekend, Princeton, Army, and Dartmouth will finish tenth, eleventh, and
twelfth, respectively, which means Princeton will be on the road at the
seventh-place team's rink for the ECAC's qualifying round on Tuesday,
February 26th.  (Perhaps Princeton will forfeit both games this weekend in
order to rest up for the qualifier :-)  The other two teams will be staying
home, or in Army's case, leaving the league altogether.
 
For each of the rest of the teams, I've listed the following categories:
 
THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (within 4 points) in the
     standings.
 
For two teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
 
1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
3.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
4.   Goal differential (net goals) against the top four teams in the
     conference.
5.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
 
I believe the same rules, in the same order, apply for three or more teams.
Thus, if three teams are tied in the standings, the first tiebreaker is each
team's record against the other two, and so on.  I can't recall the ECAC
ever having to go farther than the third tiebreaker to resolve a deadlock in
the standings.
 
Here are the possible playoff permutations, contortions, and ramifications,
by team, in order of their current standings:
 
Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  RPI, Vermont.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches first with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes third if they get no more than 1 point this
     weekend, Clarkson wins at least once, and St. Lawrence sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Clarkson and St. Lawrence.
 
Clarkson:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches second with 3 points this weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes first by getting at least 3 points and at least
     one more than Cornell.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes third if they get swept and St. Lawrence gets at
     least 3 points.  If St. Lawrence gets only 2 points this weekend,
     Clarkson would finish third if the Saints beat Harvard and RPI loses
     both games.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Cornell, could win or lose against St. Lawrence.
 
St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches third by getting 1 point.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes first if they sweep and Cornell and Clarkson each
     get no more than 1 point.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes fourth if they lose both games and RPI sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats RPI, loses to Cornell, could win or lose against
     Clarkson.
 
RPI:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Cornell, at Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fourth with 3 points this weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes third if they win both games and St. Lawrence
     loses twice.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes sixth if they get swept and Harvard and Vermont
     each win at least once.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to St. Lawrence, Harvard, and Vermont.
 
Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches fifth with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fourth if they sweep and RPI gets no more than 2
     points this weekend.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes sixth if they lose both games and Vermont gets 1
     or more points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats RPI and Vermont.
 
Vermont:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Colgate, at Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched sixth and can do no better without
     help.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes fourth with two wins if Harvard does not sweep and
     RPI gets no more than 2 points.
     WORST CASE:  Sixth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats RPI, loses to Harvard.
 
Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Vermont, RPI.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches eighth with two wins this weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes seventh if they sweep and Yale does not.  If
     Colgate ends up in a three-way tie with Brown and Yale, Colgate would
     finish seventh.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes ninth if Brown gets at least one more point than
     they do and Yale gets at least as many points as they do.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Brown, could win or lose against Yale.
 
Brown:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Army, at Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches eighth with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes seventh if they win twice and Colgate does not.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes ninth if Yale gets at least one more point than
     they do and Colgate gets at least as many points as they do.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Yale, loses to Colgate.
 
Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Princeton, at Army.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched ninth and can do no better without
     help.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes seventh with a sweep if Brown does not win both
     their games.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes ninth if Colgate gets at least one more point
     than they do and Brown gets at least as many points as they do.  Also,
     if all three teams end up tied in the standings, Yale would finish
     ninth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Brown, could win or lose against Colgate.
 
The Ivy League title picture:
 
Brown's game at Princeton next Saturday will determine the winner(s) of the
Ivy League title.  If Brown, which is currently 5-2-2 against Ivy League
competition, wins this game, it wins the title outright.  If the Bruins
lose, then Cornell and Harvard (both 6-3-1 in the Ivies) will share the
title; if Brown and Princeton tie, then Brown, Cornell, and Harvard will
split the championship three ways.
 
Bill Fenwick
Cornell '86
LET'S GO RED!!
 
"He'll scream from the 60th row of the stands that you missed a marginal call
 in the interior line, then he'll go out in the parking lot and won't be able
 to find his car."
-- Football referee Gene Tunney, on the average fan