From:                   [log in to unmask]
Subject:                Schedule Strength

> I may be asking for it, but after the seedings came out, I am so frustrated
> with how the eastern teams were left out, I went looking at schedules.  After
> looking at the 5 teams from the WCHA that were deemed worth of a bid, and the
> best ECAC teams, it appears the way to get good RPI is to only play
> non-conference games at home.  Of the top five teams in the west, only North
> Dakota played more games away or on neutral ice (2H, 5A, 3N).  The other four
> teams played as follows:
> SCSU 5H3A
> Wis  4H 2A 2N (although those 2 N are the Badger Shootout)
> MN (7H 1A)
> CC (6H)
>
> While the top two in the ECAC
> SLU (1H 5A 3N)
> Clarkson (2H 4A 4N)
>
> On top of this, those home games are MAAC teams.  No one from the other
> conferences would go to the North Country.  How does the PWR/RPI take into
> account this bias in games?  It seems to me that there is a positive feedback
> on your opponents (especially conference teams) winning percentage if they
> play most of there games at home (thus aiding all the WCHA teams.)

I assume the reason that RPI/PWR don't consider home advantage is
because any particular advantage assigned would be arbitrary, and
subject to error with respect to particular teams.

Because I was curious, I put a check in my KRACH calculator to see how
much of an advantage teams obtained from home ice, calculated as per-
game ratio of actual results to predicted results.  The result was that
the home-ice advantage ranged from a low of about 3% in mid-January to
a high of 6.7% right now (at the end of the regular season).  Note that
most of the increase has occurred in conference play.

Certainly there is some advantage to playing at home, but I'm not
convinced there's enough differential advantage for some teams compared
to others to be worried about it.

--
 Craig Powers                   NU ChE class of '98
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"Good..bad....I'm the guy with the gun." -- "Ash" in *Army of Darkness*