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Sender:
The College Hockey Discussion List <[log in to unmask]>
Subject:
From:
Doug Garn <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Fri, 8 Dec 1995 07:02:52 -0500
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A open letter to the authors of the computer rankings HEAL, CHODR, & KRACH.
 
Bear with me as my mind drifts through these thoughts!
 
All 3 of the computer polls are accruate about 81% of the time
in there predictions of future games.  Does this hold true with
previous years?  As the season progress's does the prdiction
accuracy improve, or does it stay about the same?
 
Here is CHODR's predictions for the CCHA for the upcoming weekend.
If HEAL or KRACH agrees with CHODR about a prediction there is
a Y, if they disagree there is a N.  YES, I do realize that it
would look different if HEAL or KRACH were used as the baseline.
 
CCHA:                                                        HEAL  KRACH
Friday, December 8:
   BOWLING GREEN       4.61  at  Miami               3.78     Y      Y
   Lake Superior       2.51  at  MICHIGAN            4.35     N      Y
   WESTERN MICHIGAN    3.40  at  Michigan State      3.29     Y      Y
   Alaska-Fairbanks    2.92  at  OHIO STATE          3.65     N      Y
Saturday, December 9:
   Alaska-Fairbanks    4.08  at  MIAMI               5.40     N      Y
   Lake Superior       3.35  at  MICHIGAN STATE      3.75     N      N
   Ferris State        3.34  at  NOTRE DAME          3.90     Y      N
   MICHIGAN            3.25  at  Western Michigan    3.21     N      Y
Sunday, December 10:
   BOWLING GREEN       3.45  at  Ohio State          2.02     Y      Y
 
1ST thought, how can HEAL and CHODR prediction results be so similiar
(81%) yet this set of predictions shows them to be 50% apart?
 
KRACH's predictions are about 77% the same as CHODR's.
 
What am I getting to here?  Not sure.  Are the polls some kind of
"ordered chaos" in that the games that each ranking picks as winners
are so totally different then the others, yet bottom line results
are the same?
 
Just thought you would like to know the reason I started on this
subject was because CHODR picked my team (LSSU) to lose both
games this weekend and this is not what I wanted to hear!
 
Here's how the 2 teams LSSU plays this weekend stand in the rankings.
 
        CHODR              HEAL            KRACH
 
     3  Michigan         5  LSSU        5  Michigan
     7  LSSU             8  Michigan    8  MI State
     9  MI State         13 MI State    13 LSSU
 
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