>As I said above, I've never seen Herlofsky play, so I can't pass final
>judgement on him. I can, however, tell you why his Perserverence Rating
>is so low. Basically, while he has a great GAA (3.14), his save% is very
>ordinary (84.72%). All the other goaltenders mentioned in the top 9 have
>save% from 87-90%. He also faces an average of only 20 shots per game,
>while most of the others listed are facing 29-33 shots per game.
 
So goalies with very good team defense in front of them who face fewer shots
per game automatically suffer using this "Perserverence Rating".  Is that fair?
 
Again, as Mike Machnik asked, where did the "rating" come from?  How was the
range of great to horrible decided?  What else was this "rating" measured
against?  Is it fair that BU's goalies suffer because they have good team
defense in front of them (most games)?  BU has allowed an average of only 23
shots per game, while they average taking 37 shots per game, so according to
this rating they are bad goalies despits having good GAA's, average saves
percentages and winning records.
 
I did quick calculations for Tom Noble and Derek yesterday and I came up
with a 905 overall rating for Derek ("very poor") and 918 for Tom ("poor"),
and a 912 for BU gaoltending overall ("poor").  Then I did the calculations
changing only the shots per game (i.e., the saves percentage remains the
same).  If Tom and Derek faced an average of 37 shots per game instead of
the 24 (Tom) and 22 (Derek) they do face guess what?  Tom becomes becomes
"very good" (940) and Derek becomes "good" (931).
 
I think that a supposed goalie rating that can change so much based on a
factor beyond the goalie's ability to control (shots per game faced) is a
very unfair and unreliable.
 
By the way, I am one of the first to admit that Derek is having a bad year
this season.  He has allowed far too many goals and he has a depressing low
saves percentage, but he still have a good GAA and was won 11 games so far.
He has also been quoted that he likes to face at least 30 shots per game to
stay sharp, but he has faced an average of only 22 shots per game this season.
 
Sean Pickett
Go BU Terriers, 1994 Hockey East Champions!
BU Hockey Page:  http://www.tiac.net/users/spickett/hockey.html
[log in to unmask]