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Subject:
From:
"Patrick E. Fleming" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
- Hockey-L - The College Hockey Discussion List <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 7 Nov 2010 23:54:04 -0500
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I have posted computer ratings for both Men and Women Division I college 
hockey.  I will include ratings for division III programs once more data 
is available.  The ratings are calculated using a least-squares fit to 
game outcomes as a measure of how much better the winning team is that 
the losing team.  The version 4.0 GOM (Game Outcome Metric) is 
calculated as follows:

up to 4 points for margin of victory
up to 3 points for holding the losing team below 3 goals
a 3 point bonus for winning a game in regulation.

A tie will result in a GOM of 0, indicating that the teams are even for 
the game.  An overtime win results in a GOM of 1.  The results for 
Division I Men's Hockey (for games through November 6, 2010) are given 
below:

TFS 4.0 - College Hockey
NCAA Division I (Men)

      School               Record               Rating        Schedule
      ------               ------               ------        --------
   1) Yale                 ( 4 -  0 -  0)       30.718        23.968
   2) Nebraska-Omaha       ( 7 -  1 -  0)       30.449        25.699
   3) Wisconsin            ( 6 -  2 -  2)       29.471        25.271
   4) Boston University    ( 6 -  0 -  2)       29.289        25.164
   5) Michigan             ( 5 -  2 -  3)       29.180        27.180
   6) Miami                ( 5 -  2 -  3)       28.948        26.148
   7) Notre Dame           ( 6 -  2 -  1)       28.616        25.727
   8) New Hampshire        ( 4 -  1 -  2)       28.578        26.007
   9) Maine                ( 4 -  1 -  3)       28.489        26.239
  10) Boston College       ( 5 -  3 -  0)       28.221        25.846

  11) Alaska               ( 6 -  3 -  1)       28.068        25.868
  12) Western Michigan     ( 6 -  2 -  2)       27.932        25.732
  13) Ferris State         ( 5 -  3 -  2)       27.777        25.977
  14) Michigan State       ( 3 -  2 -  3)       27.606        26.606
  15) Union                ( 6 -  1 -  3)       27.537        23.737
  16) Harvard              ( 1 -  1 -  0)       27.165        26.665
  17) Minnesota Duluth     ( 7 -  1 -  2)       27.113        24.213
  18) Minnesota            ( 5 -  4 -  1)       26.805        26.505
  19) North Dakota         ( 5 -  4 -  1)       26.748        26.048
  20) Denver               ( 4 -  4 -  2)       26.412        26.512

  21) Merrimack            ( 2 -  2 -  2)       26.091        25.758
  22) Connecticut          ( 2 -  1 -  3)       25.967        25.801
  23) Michigan Tech        ( 3 -  2 -  2)       25.804        25.661
  24) Rensselaer           ( 4 -  2 -  3)       25.792        24.347
  25) Ohio State           ( 4 -  5 -  0)       25.416        24.749
  26) St. Cloud State      ( 4 -  5 -  1)       25.273        25.373
  27) Canisius             ( 4 -  4 -  2)       25.227        23.627
  28) Colorado College     ( 4 -  5 -  1)       24.725        25.525
  29) Northern Michigan    ( 3 -  5 -  1)       24.698        26.254
  30) Quinnipiac           ( 4 -  3 -  1)       24.688        24.938

  31) Robert Morris        ( 6 -  2 -  0)       24.541        20.666
  32) Providence           ( 3 -  4 -  2)       24.421        24.754
  33) Lake Superior        ( 3 -  5 -  2)       24.417        26.317
  34) Dartmouth            ( 1 -  2 -  1)       24.415        26.665
  35) St. Lawrence         ( 2 -  4 -  3)       24.401        25.290
  36) Niagara              ( 3 -  3 -  2)       24.320        24.570
  37) Clarkson             ( 4 -  3 -  2)       24.278        24.055
  38) Brown                ( 1 -  2 -  1)       24.157        25.157
  39) Bowling Green        ( 4 -  6 -  0)       23.916        26.416
  40) Minnesota State      ( 2 -  4 -  4)       23.435        25.535

  41) Vermont              ( 0 -  3 -  3)       23.396        25.729
  42) Bemidji State        ( 1 -  4 -  1)       23.045        26.378
  43) Colgate              ( 2 -  3 -  1)       22.864        23.031
  44) Mercyhurst           ( 1 -  4 -  1)       22.809        25.475
  45) Princeton            ( 1 -  3 -  0)       22.612        25.862
  46) Massachusetts        ( 0 -  5 -  2)       22.609        26.181
  47) UMass Lowell         ( 2 -  6 -  2)       22.549        26.049
  48) RIT                  ( 2 -  4 -  1)       22.475        25.475
  49) Alaska Anchorage     ( 1 -  5 -  2)       22.296        24.796
  50) Army                 ( 2 -  4 -  0)       22.233        23.900

  51) Cornell              ( 1 -  3 -  0)       22.183        24.933
  52) Northeastern         ( 1 -  5 -  2)       22.017        24.642
  53) Alab-Huntsville      ( 1 -  8 -  1)       21.937        26.837
  54) Bentley              ( 2 -  3 -  1)       21.748        23.248
  55) Holy Cross           ( 4 -  4 -  0)       21.504        24.004
  56) Sacred Heart         ( 1 -  5 -  1)       18.438        23.723
  57) Air Force            ( 1 -  5 -  0)       18.260        21.593
  58) American Int'l       ( 1 -  5 -  0)       15.924        20.924

Average GOM =   5.162
Std. Dev.   =   4.806

These ratings are based on  229  games played.
  45  of the games were upset victories.



If you are interested, the ratings are available at 
http://minkeynet.net/~pfleming/fcfcr/ .  Enjoy!

-- 
-- Patrick E. Fleming
-- Minkey, Inc.
-- [log in to unmask]

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