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Date: | Fri, 23 Sep 2005 13:38:38 -0400 |
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Here is my take on the Preseason Coaches Poll
1. Cornell (11) 121
A no brainer. Returns great goaltending and defense and Moulson. We need
to improve offensive output even though we were 3rd highest scoring team in
ECAC league play. This is possible with a large senior class now
diminished by the loss of Hynes. There is a deep roster with a talented
crew of incoming freshman that should contribute. This could be a very good
year.
2. Dartmouth (1) 94
Sounds reasonable. They return a lot and they can score goals--tops in
league play 74 goals compared to Cornell's 70. They graduated Stempniak
(top scorer), the goalie, a starting defenseman, and two checking line
wings. Plus Jessiman who would have been a senior turned pro. Looks to me
like another very talented recruiting class. If the promising freshman
goalie (league all star in juniors) or a returning goalie comes through
they could be very good. They do need to significantly improve defensively
with 49 goals allowed last year compared to Cornell's 26 and their coach
has not shown the knack for defense like he has for offense. This team
could be impressive if the defense and goaltending are adequate.
3. Harvard 93
Hard to say but may be overrated here. Lost a lot but returns much of the
scoring although the graduation of Cavanagh may be hard to replace. Like
Cornell they also need to score more goals. Still has a solid core of 4
excellent defenders but the #5 & #6 players will be a question mark--the
returning players with almost no game experience and recruits do not look
as good as what Cornell will have in the 5-8 slots. With the graduation of
Grumet-Morris and the failure to recruit a new goalie, goaltending will be
weaker relying on returning players with little game experience but who
were good recruits when they came in. I think the talent level of the team
has been declining for 3 recruiting cycles. The recruits they are getting
are obviously much better that what Union is getting but not as good as
they used to get or what Dartmouth is getting. I do not think they will be
as good as last year.
4. St. Lawrence 89
Seems high to me. Last years team finished 7th in the league with a sub
.500 record and was not a young team only 5 Fr. or So. getting significant
ice time. In contrast to a very young Brown team I wonder about how much
they will improve. Goaltending is a big question mark with a graduation
loss of the goalie who played almost every minute. With no recruit and
they will rely on two not very highly heralded sophomores with little game
experience. Return most of the team and have several recruits that look
like solid starters. Offense was respectable with 70 goals scored in
league play. Need to improve significantly on defense where 3 starters and
a NHL draft pick goalie are gone. They allowed 73 goals against in league
play. They have 4 freshman defenders coming in -- a lot rides on them
being better than the departed seniors. Then again with 73 goals allowed
it could very well be team defense not the play of the defensemen.
5. Colgate 86
I guess I expect them in the top 5. Goaltending will be weaker due to
graduation. They loose 3 starters from defense. Large senior class is gone
but much of the scoring returns. They need to significantly increase their
scoring only 55 goals in league play compared to Cornell's 70. Recruits
look good to me and they are bringing in 5 frosh defenders. Could be ok if
defense is good enough and returning goalie (they did not get a recruit)
with little game experience is adequate. The loss of so many seniors and
the goalie could easily put them lower.
6. Brown 80
I think this is too low -- they should be in the top 5. They were a very
young team with 7 of the top 9 scorers Fr. or So. They need to
significantly increase their goal scoring since they scored 54 goals one
less than Colgate. They have very good goaltending with a very high save %
but they allowed 60 goals in league play. They clearly need to improve
their defensive play and their coach has a history of producing good
defensive teams. They have a couple recruits that seem very
promising. Unlike Harvard they have been increasing the talent level of
the team for the last 3 recruiting cycles. They should be better than last
year. Maybe a lot better.
7. Clarkson 64
Who knows. Lost 3 off the top 4 scorers but most of the defense
returns. They need to significantly improve offensively and defensively
(44 scored and 66 allowed in league play). This will be a young team with
only 3 seniors. Starting goaltender thrown off the team and they do not
have a goalie coming in--the returning goalies may be ok but will not carry
the team. Clarkson has some serious talent on the roster but does not play
well or consistently as a team. They have another very good recruiting
class with 3 NHL draft picks to bring the total to 9 NHL draft picks on the
roster. Hard to say if they will be better or worse based on last years
bad play and the goaltending question. Perhaps the departure of the
seniors and the goalie (they were left over from the old coach) might
actually help the team chemistry.
8. Union 51
They were 8th last year and could finish the same. They did not loose
much. They return good goaltending (top returner .912 save %). However,
they allowed 72 goals in league play so the defensive play is
lacking. Need a significant offensive improvement having scored only
43. Recruits do not look like they will score a lot right away so they
need the returning players to increase their output. I think the new coach
has been incrementally increasing the talent level of the team for a couple
of cycles. Should be slightly improved but I am not sure this will
translate into a higher finish.
9. Rensselaer 39
Seems optimistic to me. It think RPI has sort of lost their way and is not
recruiting the level of talent they used to get. They return a lot and
that could make them better although their leading scorer is being treated
for testicular cancer and may or may not be able to play. They return one
goalie who is not as good as Princeton's--.888 versus .908-- and the
recruit they added does not excite me. They have fundamental problems on
offense and defense and I do not see them on a path to improve.
10. Princeton 32
I would pick them higher. The new coach turned the team around and they
played much better hockey last year. They have minimal graduation losses
but have major defensive problems having allowed 81 goals in league
play. OK goaltending returns and they add a recruit. Offensively they
produced 59 goals that is sort of respectable. They are bringing in 10
players that will improve the skill level of the team and one player who
scored 98 points in the AJHL last year that should have some offensive
talents. They should be improved.
11. Yale 28
I would pick them higher. They were a very young team last year and have
essentially zero graduation losses. I think they had a few very talented
players on the roster last year. They have 2 NHL draft picks in their
freshman class and 4 other freshmen who were Central Scouting Service
rated. This is a hell of a freshman class--that would have been Harvard's
freshman class in years past. Defense was appallingly bad with 89 allowed
and goaltending (which all returns) weak. They bring a prep school CSS
rated goalie who should become the starter and improve on the
goaltending. How did Harvard miss this kid to replace
Grumet-Morris? A year older and more good players should make them
better. Maybe a lot better.
12. Quinnipiac 15
Hard to say. They loose 3 of their top 5 scorers but strangely enough 4 of
their top 8 scorers were freshmen. Graduated a very good senior goalie but
return a junior with .907 save % in 8 appearances. They are bringing in
two freshmen goalies. Outside their league they played 5-7-1 and overall
they were 21-13-3. It is hard to gauge their offensive or defensive
potential because of the level of play in league games but the numbers look
ok. They are bringing in 11 recruits even though they are only graduating
7 starters. At least 3 of the recruits have offensive stats that look
pretty impressive to me and they are descent sized. It looks to me like
they got better recruits than RPI and Union. They may be building up a
good talent base. My guess is that they will be hungry and competitive and
not finish last.
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