I was most interested in is what Mike says about a decline in school
boy hockey especially in Massachusetts.  It seems to me that he is
correct in that I think there has been a significant increase in the
number of players who play junior or prep school hockey instead of
or after high school before they play college hockey.  However, there
is an alternative interpretation.  It may be that the average level of
skills in college hockey is higher in contrast to the number of NHL
type players (my contention).  The players that make it may need a
higher level or more years of preparation than high school can
provide.  This may be even more pronounced for players originating
from places other than Minnesota.
 
From 1980 to 1995 Div. 1 hockey increases from 39 to 44 teams.  To
chart the growth of the U S talent pool you would have to get data
from USA Hockey on the growth of youth hockey from 1965 to 1980.
A player starting youth hockey at age 4 in 1980 does not play college
hockey until 1995.  In upstate New York, if my recollection is correct,
in 1965 there were only about a dozen well developed youth hockey
programs (Ithaca, Troy, Canton, Potsdam,...you get the idea).  Now
there are a large number of established programs and more coming
on--Geneva started about 5 years ago, Ithaca adding a third rink this
year, etc.
 
The lag is even greater when a town starts youth hockey from
scratch.  For example, Geneva, NY north of Ithaca built a rink about 5
years ago and started youth hockey.  I think it takes a program
many years to mature.  Here in Ithaca (in my opinion) the backbone
of the youth hockey coaches (male and female) are adults who
learned to skate and play here in Ithaca.  It is not a coincidence that
some of the best players are children whose parents were involved
with hockey at some level.  The first kid to come out of Geneva youth
hockey to play Div. 1 is probably still 5 to 10 years away but I think
in reality it is more like 10 to 15 years away as the local
organizational / coaching / parenting  infrastructure matures.
 
I think the college hockey situation relative to the NHL is ideal.
Through the major junior programs and the minor leagues there is an
excellent avenue for a kid who wants to play professional hockey.  I
think 99% of the kids who play college hockey really want to go to
college.  This may limit college hockey's ability to attract future NHL
all stars but it is a price I am willing to parts.
 
Steven Rockey
Mathematics Librarian
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Cornell University
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