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Subject:
From:
Patrick Carr <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Patrick Carr <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 6 Feb 2003 14:25:18 -0500
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Last week, curious as to whether Colgate's win over Cornell was the
biggest upset of the week, I started comparing the KRACH and CHODR
predicted outcomes of the game. This led to a script to cobble together
both ranking systems and output them for the weekly schedule. The results
can be seen at <http://gneiss.geo.cornell.edu/odds/>.

The two models tend to agree pretty well on the outcome of the game. Last
week's numbers, which aren't on the site because the KRACH is updated
continuously and I had to keep rerunning to get the bugs out, had a few
mismatches, but they were all on the order of +1/2.

In the comments in the source code, I included my dilemma over how exactly
to control the rounding with the chodr numbers. I would welcome a
convincing argument on that.

Pat Carr
Cornell '96

P.S. Colgate was in fact the biggest upset last week; Cornell was a 17:1
favorite.

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