Back again with the ECAC Tiebreaking Masochism Bonanza!  You knew something
was going to give after last year’s first-ever infinite loop (in which
there was a tie for fourth that went to the record-against-top-eight
tiebreaker AND a tie for eighth that went to record-against-top-four).  The
ECAC finally saw the light and has elected to include the number of league
wins as a tiebreaker, right after head-to-head record.  Note that the
ECAC’s Division III hockey leagues have used league wins as a tiebreaker
for years, and I think their women’s league has as well.  Also, adding
league wins as a tiebreaker does not automatically prevent the infinite
loop scenario, though last year it would have resolved the eighth-place tie
immediately, and the loop (sadly?) would have gone *poof*

Anyway, this year the ECAC has resolved itself nicely into three groups.
The top two teams battle it out for first this weekend, while the next six
have assured themselves of home ice for the first playoff round and hope to
move up to (or hold on to) a first-round bye.  And teams 9-12 battle it out
for, well, seeds 9-12.

Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish.  As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?ecac.cgi

For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:

THIS WEEKEND:  The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN:  The highest the team could finish with no help from the
     competition.  Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE:  The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE:  The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
     This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
     standings win.
TIEBREAKERS:  How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
     some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
     standings.  Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
     lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
     more than those two teams tied.  For example, if Harvard and Yale were
     to finish tied after this weekend, Harvard would win the head-to-head
     tiebreaker; however, in a three-way tie involving those two and Colgate,
     Harvard would be seeded below Yale.


For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:

1.   Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
     tournaments, do not count).
2.   League wins.
3.   Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4.   Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5.   Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6.   Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7.   Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.

There may even be an eighth tiebreaker (coin flip), though I’ve never seen
it listed.

And so, without further ado:

Clarkson:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Princeton, Quinnipiac.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches first by beating Princeton, or tying Princeton
     and beating Quinnipiac.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes second if they lose to Princeton and the Tigers
     don’t lose to St. Lawrence.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Princeton.

Princeton:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Finishes first with a win over Clarkson and at least a
     tie against St. Lawrence.
     BEST CASE:  First.
     WORST CASE:  Would finish second if they lose to Clarkson.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Harvard; could win or lose against Clarkson.

Harvard:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Colgate, at Cornell.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up third place with three points on the weekend.
     BEST CASE:  Third.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to eighth with two losses if Colgate also beats Dart-
     mouth, Yale sweeps, Union beats Brown, and Quinnipiac gets at least
     three points.  This would set up a three-way tie for sixth place among
     Yale, Colgate, and Harvard, with the tiebreakers putting the Crimson
     eighth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Union and Quinnipiac; loses to Princeton; could win
     or lose against Cornell, Colgate, and Yale

Union:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Yale, at Brown.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep guarantees the Dutchmen fourth place.
     BEST CASE:  Finishes third with a sweep if Harvard gets no more than two
     points on the weekend.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to eighth if they get swept, Cornell gets at
     least one point, Quinnipiac gets at least two points, Yale does not lose
     to Rensselaer, and Colgate sweeps.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Harvard; could win or lose against Cornell,
     Quinnipiac, Yale, and Colgate.

Cornell:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Dartmouth, Harvard.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Finishes fourth with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Gets third with a sweep if Union does not win twice.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to eighth if they lose twice, Quinnipiac gets at
     least two points, and Colgate and Yale sweep.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Quinnipiac and Colgate; could win or lose against
     Harvard, Union, and Yale.

Quinnipiac:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Three points would give Quinnipiac sixth place.
     BEST CASE:  Climbs to third with a sweep if Harvard gets no more than
     one point and Cornell and Union get no more than two points each (so
     either Cornell and Harvard would have to tie, or Cornell would have to
     beat Harvard and lose to Dartmouth).
     WORST CASE:  Finishes eighth with two losses if Yale gets at least three
     points and Colgate gets at least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Harvard and Cornell; could win or lose against
     Union, Yale, and Colgate.

Yale:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Union, Rensselaer.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Has already clinched eighth place and can do no better
     without help.
     BEST CASE:  Clinches fourth with a sweep if Cornell loses twice, Union
     does not beat Brown, and Quinnipiac gets no more than one point.
     WORST CASE:  Eighth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Could win or lose against Harvard, Union, Cornell,
     Quinnipiac, and Colgate.

Colgate:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Harvard, Dartmouth.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than eighth place without help.
     BEST CASE:  Wraps up fourth with a sweep if Cornell loses twice, Union
     ties Yale and loses to Brown, and Quinnipiac gets no more than two
     points.
     WORST CASE:  Eighth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Cornell; could win or lose against Harvard,
     Union, Quinnipiac, and Yale.

Brown:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Rensselaer, Union.
     ON THEIR OWN:  A sweep guarantees the Bears ninth place.
     BEST CASE:  Ninth.
     WORST CASE:  Falls to twelfth if they lose twice, Dartmouth gets at
     least one point, and St. Lawrence gets at least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth and St. Lawrence; could win or lose
     against Rensselaer

Rensselaer:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Brown, at Yale.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Clinches ninth place with a sweep.
     BEST CASE:  Ninth.
     WORST CASE:  Finishes twelfth if they lose twice, Dartmouth gets at
     least one point, and St. Lawrence gets at least two points.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth and St. Lawrence; could win or lose
     against Brown.

Dartmouth:
     THIS WEEKEND:  At Cornell, at Colgate.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Wraps up tenth place with two wins.
     BEST CASE:  Would finish ninth with a sweep if Brown and Rensselaer tie
     or if the winner of that game does not win their other game.
     WORST CASE:  Would drop to twelfth if they lose twice and St. Lawrence
     gets at least one point.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Loses to Brown, Rensselaer, and St. Lawrence.

St. Lawrence:
     THIS WEEKEND:  Quinnipiac, Princeton.
     ON THEIR OWN:  Can do no better than twelfth place without help.
     BEST CASE:  Rises to ninth with a sweep if Dartmouth does not win twice
     and the Brown-Rensselaer winner loses its other game (if they tie, then
     neither can win their other game).
     WORST CASE:  Twelfth.
     TIEBREAKERS:  Beats Dartmouth; loses to Brown and Rensselaer.



Bill Fenwick
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