And here we go again with the ECAC Tiebreaking Reality Show! This year's
permutations are a little less, ah, taxing than in seasons past, as the
teams have rather neatly formed themselves into three groups. You have the
top two fighting it out for first place (though -- sorry, Clarkson-ites --
it looks like it may not be much of a fight). Next, there are three more
teams battling for the title of Best of the Rest. And then you have, well,
The Rest, as the final seven teams in the standings are separated by a
total of five points.
Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish. As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/2007/ecac.cgiframe.shtml
For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than those two teams tied. For example, if Rensselaer and Yale
were to tie this weekend, Rensselaer would have the head-to-head tie-
breaker edge; however, in a three-way tie involving those two and
Harvard, Rensselaer would actually be seeded below Yale.
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. Record against the top four teams in the conference.
3. Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
4. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5. Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
6. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
Though I've never seen it listed, I believe there is a seventh tiebreaker,
consisting of a coin flip between two teams or a drawing of lots among
three or more teams.
Onto the fun and madness:
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEKEND: At Quinnipiac, at Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Two points will wrap up first place for the Saints.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Finishes second if Clarkson gets at least three more points
than they do.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Clarkson.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEKEND: At Princeton, at Quinnipiac.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches second with one point on the weekend.
BEST CASE: Would finish first with a sweep if St. Lawrence gets no more
than one point.
WORST CASE: Falls to fourth if they lose twice, Cornell sweeps, and
Quinnipiac also beats St. Lawrence. This would set up a three-way tie
for second among Quinnipiac, Cornell, and Clarkson, with the tiebreakers
putting the Golden Knights fourth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats St. Lawrence; loses to Quinnipiac and Cornell.
Quinnipiac:
THIS WEEKEND: St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep would guarantee Quinnipiac third place.
BEST CASE: Finishes second with two wins if Clarkson also loses to
Princeton.
WORST CASE: Would drop to fifth with two losses if Dartmouth beats
Cornell and the Big Red does not lose to Harvard.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Clarkson; loses to Dartmouth; could win or lose
against Cornell.
Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: At Dartmouth, at Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up fourth place by beating Dartmouth.
BEST CASE: Climbs to second with two wins if Clarkson loses twice and
Quinnipiac does not beat St. Lawrence.
WORST CASE: Finishes fifth with two losses if Quinnipiac does not get
swept.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Clarkson; loses to Dartmouth; could win or lose
against Quinnipiac.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEKEND: Cornell, Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches fourth with a pair of wins.
BEST CASE: Would finish third with a sweep if Quinnipiac does not win
twice.
WORST CASE: Two losses would leave the Big Green in fifth place.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Quinnipiac and Cornell.
Princeton:
THIS WEEKEND: Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: Gets sixth place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Sixth.
WORST CASE: Finishes tenth if (get a load of this one) they lose twice,
Harvard gets at least one point, Colgate gets at least two points, Yale
and Rensselaer tie, and both Yale and Rensselaer win their other game.
This would set up a three-way tie for eighth among Yale, Rensselaer, and
Princeton, with the tiebreakers placing the Tigers tenth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown; loses to Yale; could win or lose against Har-
vard, Colgate, and Rensselaer.
Harvard:
THIS WEEKEND: Colgate, Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: A win over Colgate, or a tie against Colgate and a win
over Cornell, wraps up seventh place for the Crimson.
BEST CASE: Clinches sixth with two wins if Princeton does not sweep.
WORST CASE: Falls to tenth if they lose twice, and Brown and Yale both
sweep.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; loses to Yale and Brown; could win or
lose against Princeton and Colgate.
Colgate:
THIS WEEKEND: At Harvard, at Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches seventh with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Would finish sixth with two wins if Princeton gets no more
than two points.
WORST CASE: Drops to eleventh with two losses if Rensselaer ties both
Yale and Brown, both Yale and Brown beat Union, and Dartmouth does not
finish in the top four. This would set up a three-way tie for ninth
among Rensselaer, Brown, and Colgate, with the tiebreakers placing the
Raiders eleventh.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union; could win or lose against Princeton, Harvard,
Rensselaer, Yale, and Brown.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEKEND: Brown, Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: If they beat Yale and don't lose to Brown, Rensselaer
will guarantee themselves ninth place.
BEST CASE: Climbs to sixth with a sweep if both Princeton and Harvard
lose twice, Dartmouth beats Colgate, and Cornell does not finish in the
top four.
WORST CASE: Falls to twelfth with two losses if Union gets at least
three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Harvard; could win or lose against Princeton,
Colgate, Yale, Brown, and Union.
Yale:
THIS WEEKEND: At Union, at Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up ninth place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Finishes sixth with two wins if Princeton gets no more than
one point, Harvard and Colgate tie, Harvard loses to Cornell, and
Colgate does not beat Dartmouth.
WORST CASE: Would finish twelfth if they get swept and Brown gets at
least one point.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Princeton and Harvard; loses to Brown and Union;
could win or lose against Colgate and Rensselaer.
Brown:
THIS WEEKEND: At Rensselaer, at Union.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep guarantees tenth place.
BEST CASE: Would rise to eighth with two wins if Harvard loses twice
and Yale gets no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Two losses would drop the Bears to twelfth place.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Harvard and Yale; loses to Princeton and Union;
could win or lose against Colgate and Rensselaer.
Union:
THIS WEEKEND: Yale, Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches tenth with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Finishes ninth with two wins if Rensselaer gets no more than
one point.
WORST CASE: Ends up twelfth if they lose to Brown and don't beat Yale.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale and Brown; loses to Colgate; could win or lose
against Rensselaer.
--
Bill Fenwick DJF 5/27/94
Cornell '86 and '95 JCF 12/2/97
LET'S GO RED!!
"Next week I'm going to have an MRI to find out whether or not I have
claustrophobia."
-- Steven Wright
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