Updated standings after Friday's games:
1 Michigan 41 pts 43 pts max 3 ties 1 seed possible
2 MSU 36 38 2 2-3
NMU 36 38 4 2-4
4 LSSU 34 36 2 3-4
5 Notre Dame 29 31 7 5
6 Ferris 26 28 2 6
Neb Omaha 26 26 6 7
8 BG 23 25 1 8-10
Miami 23 25 3 8-10
WMU 23 25 3 8-10
11 OSU 19 21 3 11 (out)
12 UAF 10 10 2 12 (out)
Four playoff seeds are know (1, 5, 6, 7). 2-4 are one group and 8-10
are another. So things are actually sort of clear.
1. Michigan 10. BG/Miami/WMU
2. MSU/NMU 9. BG/Miami/WMU
3. MSU/NMU/LSSU 8. BG/Miami/WMU
4. NMU/LSSU 7. UNO
5. Notre Dame 6. Ferris
League games remaining: Michigan-BG, MSU-UND, NMU-LSSU, FSU-WMU, Miami-OSU.
The battle for 2-3-4
MSU has the edge since they have 2 more points than LSSU and win the
league-wins tie-breaker with NMU, 17 vs 16. So if MSU and NMU tie,
MSU gets seeded ahead. Since NMU and LSSU are playing each other, we
have 9 different outcomes:
MSU result NMU/LSSU result 2 3 4
MSU win NMU win MSU NMU LSSU
MSU win NMU tie MSU NMU LSSU
MSU win NMU loss MSU LSSU NMU
MSU tie NMU win NMU MSU LSSU
MSU tie NMU tie MSU NMU LSSU
MSU tie NMU loss MSU LSSU NMU
MSU loss NMU win NMU MSU LSSU
MSU loss NMU tie NMU MSU LSSU
MSU loss NMU loss MSU LSSU NMU
Michigan State ends up #2 is 6 of the 9 scenarios, LSSU #4 in 6 of
the 9, and NMU has 3 chances to finish in each of 2, 3, 4.
LSSU cannot finish #2. In the "MSU lose/NMU lose/LSSU wins" scenario,
all 3 teams are tied at 36 points. I believe MSU and LSSU would then
tie again on the first tie-breaker (league wins), dropping NMU to
4th. MSU and LSSU are tied head to head, but MSU wins on goal
differential, 4-3.
The battle for 8-9-10
BGSU has the edge in league wins (fewest ties) and thus wins
tie-breakers with Miami and WMU. BG has 11 wins and the other two
have 10. Miami wins the tie-breaker with WMU (head to head record of
1-0-1).
Since BG, Miami and WMU all have different opponents, we have 27
different possible outcomes:
BG MU WM 8 9 10
W W W BG MU WM
W W T BG MU WM
W W L BG MU WM
W T W BG WM MU
W T T BG MU WM
W T L BG MU WM
W L W BG WM MU
W L T BG WM MU
W L L BG MU WM
T W W MU WM BG
T W T MU BG WM
T W L MU BG WM
T T W WM BG MU
T T T BG MU WM
T T L BG MU WM
T L W WM BG MU
T L T BG WM MU
T L L BG MU WM
L W W MU WM BG
L W T MU WM BG
L W L MU BG WM
L T W WM MU BG
L T T MU WM BG
L T L MU BG WM
L L W WM BG MU
L L T WM BG MU
L L L BG MU WM
BG 14 8 5
MU 8 11 8
WM 5 8 14
So, Bowling Green gets 8th in over half of the scenarios. But of
course each scenario is not equally likely to happen. If each
higher-ranked team wins, then we have the L-W-L scenario and the
finish is MU-BG-WM.
But, we can make some guesses about likely play-off pairings:
1. Michigan 10. WMU
2. MSU 9. Miami
3. NMU 8. BG
4. LSSU 7. UNO
5. Notre Dame 6. Ferris
We'll just to wait and see....
Keith
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