The following are the tiebreaker criteria for the ECAC:
1. Head to Head
2. Record vs. Top 4 Teams
3. Record vs. Top 8 Teams
4. Goal differential, Head to Head
5. Goal differential vs. Top 4 Teams
6. Goal differential vs. Top 8 Teams
Once again, I did a pairwise comparison of all teams that can still tie in
points. There are a total of 66 possibilities with 12 teams. Of those,
20 are possible given the current standings. Here's the interesting part -
of the 20 possible ties, only three are not set in stone:
Team1 Team 2 Winner of Tiebreaker Certainty
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Vermont St. Lawrence St. Lawrence Probable
Vermont Clarkson Vermont DEFINATE
Vermont Cornell Cornell DEFINATE
St. Lawrence Clarkson St. Lawrence DEFINATE
St. Lawrence Cornell St. Lawrence Probable
St. Lawrence Colgate Colgate DEFINATE
Clarkson Cornell Cornell DEFINATE
Clarkson Colgate Colgate DEFINATE
Cornell Colgate Cornell DEFINATE
Harvard Brown Harvard DEFINATE
Rensselaer Princeton Princeton DEFINATE
Rensselaer Dartmouth Rensselaer DEFINATE
Rensselaer Union Rensselaer DEFINATE
Rensselaer Yale Rensselaer DEFINATE
Princeton Dartmouth Princeton DEFINATE
Princeton Union Union DEFINATE
Princeton Yale Princeton DEFINATE
Dartmouth Union Union DEFINATE
Dartmouth Yale Yale DEFINATE
Union Yale Winner of Union/Yale game (probable)
Pairwise Comparisons:
Vermont -- St. Lawrence
H2H : 1-1-0
vTop4 : If Colgate is #5, St. Lawrence cannot tie Vermont.
If Cornell is #5, Vermont is 4-2-0, St. Lawrence currently 3-2-0.
If Clarkson is #5, Vermont is 2-2-2, St. Lawrence currently 3-1-0.
Either way, SLU is in the driver's seat.
vTop8 : This would need SLU to lose to #4, then beat/tie #5, with Vermont
losing then tie/lose. If this happens, SLU will probably have a
better record vs. the top 8 teams.
RESULT: St. Lawrence probably wins in a tie.
Vermont -- Clarkson
H2H : 1-1-0
vTop4 : Vermont is 2-2-2, Clarkson would be 3-3-0
vTop8 : If there's a tie, Clarkson would be 6-1-1, Vermont 7-1-0
RESULT: Vermont wins in a tie.
Vermont -- Cornell
H2H : 0-0-2
vTop4 : If there's a tie, Cornell would be 3-1-2, Vermont 2-2-2,
or a tie if Vermont goes 0-2.
vTop8 : If we get here, another tie unless Dartmouth is 8th.
GH2H : Tie.
GTop4 : Currently Cornell +2, Vermont +1. Cornell 3-point weekend,
Cornell wins it here.
RESULT: Cornell wins tiebreaker.
St. Lawrence -- Clarkson
H2H : 1-1-0
vTop4 : If Clarkson win/loss to Cornell/Colgate, SLU loss/tie to
Cornell/Colgate, this will still be tied. OW, St. Lawrence wins.
vTop8 : St. Lawrence wins it here if it gets this far.
RESULT: St. Lawrence wins tie.
St. Lawrence -- Cornell
H2H : Cornell cannot lose and still tie SLU. So H2H would be 1-1-0
vTop4 : If Cornell win/tie to Clarkson too, Cornell wins. OW tie...
vTop8 : To get here, tie unless Union is 8th. OW SLU wins.
GH2H : Assuming a one-goal game....
GTop4 : Cornell would be better than +2, SLU worse than -2.
RESULT: Cornell 3-point weekend and they get the tiebreaker. However,
the money still is probably on St. Lawrence.
St. Lawrence -- Colgate
H2H : To achieve a tie, 1-1-0
vTop4 : 4-4 for each if there's a tie (they'd be tied for 4th.)
vTop8 : If RPI is 8th, this is a tie. Otherwise, St. Lawrence wins.
GH2H : One-goal game, Tie!
GTop4 : Currently SLU is -1, Colgate is -5.
GTop8 : Currently SLU is +8, Colgate is +10
RESULT: Doubtful that Colgate can overcome the GTop4 against SLU and
Clarkson. St. Lawrence probably wins.
Clarkson -- Cornell
H2H : To achieve a tie, Cornell cannot lose to Clarkson.
Therefore, Cornell wins in the H2H.
RESULT: Cornell wins tiebreaker.
Clarkson -- Colgate
H2H : To achieve a tie, Colgate cannot lose to Clarkson.
Therefore, Colgate wins in the H2H.
RESULT: Colgate wins tiebreaker.
Cornell -- Colgate
ASSUME: Cornell loses one game.
H2H : 1-1-0
vTop4 : If there is a tie, teams will have equal records vTop4.
vTop8 : If RPI or Union 8th, tie. If Dartmouth or Princeton 8th, Cornell wins.
GH2H : 9-7, Cornell wins.
RESULT: Cornell wins tie.
Harvard -- Brown
H2H : Harvard wins 2-0-0
Brown -- RPI
H2H : Brown wins 2-0-0
RPI -- Princeton
H2H : To achieve a tie Princeton cannot lose to RPI. A win and
Princeton wins tiebreaker. If a tie...
vTop4 : Princeton wins no matter who's in 5th.
RESULT: Princeton wins tie.
RPI -- Dartmouth
H2H : 1-1-0
vTop4 : RPI is 1-5-1, Dartmouth is 0-7-1
RESULT: RPI wins tie.
RPI -- Union
H2H : RPI wins 2-0-0
RPI -- Yale
H2H : Even if RPI loses, resulting in 1-1-0
vTop4 : RPI is 1-5-1, Yale is 0-8-0
RESULT: RPI wins tie.
Princeton -- Dartmouth
H2H : 1-1-0
vTop4 : Dartmouth is 0-7-1, Princeton is 1-5-1
RESULT: Princeton wins tie.
Princeton -- Union
H2H : To achieve a tie, Union cannot lose to Princeton.
Therefore, Union would win in the H2H (Currently 1-0 Union).
RESULT: Union wins tie.
Princeton -- Yale
H2H : 1-1-0
vTop4 : Princeton is 1-5-1, Yale is 0-8-0.
RESULT: Princeton wins tie.
Dartmouth -- Union
H2H : Union wins 2-0-0
Dartmouth -- Yale
H2H : Yale wins 1-0-1.
RESULT: Yale wins tie.
Union -- Yale
H2H : Yale leads 1-0-0. If Union beats Yale...
vTop4 : Union is 0-7-1, Yale 0-8-0 if Cornell is 4th. OW tie here...
vTop8 : If RPI beats Princeton, (given all these assumptions), Yale wins tie.
If RPI loses/ties, Union wins tie.
RESULT: Basically rides on Union/Yale game.
After that, you must watch Cornell, Colgate, RPI, Princeton too.
--
from: LTJG Kenneth A. Pavelle, NOAA
NOAA, National Weather Service
Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center
My Homepage: http://www.abrfc.noaa.gov/kap.html
"Its hard to predict anything, especially the future" -- Yogi Berra
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