Time to haul out KRACH for another season...
There have been some minor changes over the off-season (described below),
but the basic principle is still the same: to use the results (win, loss,
tie) and the schedule to assess the strengths of the teams using ratings
on an odds scale. For example, Maine's rating is just over twice North
Dakota's, so a Maine win is just over twice as likely as a ND win in a
game between the two teams.
More notes and comments below.
Ken's Ratings for American College Hockey
Includes games up to 1999/11/28.
Rank Prev Team Pct RRWP Rating Grp Games
1 6 Maine (9-0-2) 0.909 0.890 643 1
2 1 Colgate (9-2) 0.818 0.858 461 1 W Mr W Ni
3 11 New Hampshire (10-2-1) 0.808 0.858 461 1 W Nt W ND
4 3 North Dakota (9-2-1) 0.792 0.814 315 1 W Vt L NH
5 9 Wisconsin (11-3) 0.786 0.803 290 1 W MS L Mi
6 4 Rensselaer (9-3) 0.750 0.799 281 1 L Ni W Ar
7 15 Boston University (9-3-2) 0.714 0.783 250 1 W Ha W DU W CC
8 5 St Lawrence (7-3) 0.700 0.776 238 1 L FS
9 17 Niagara (6-3) 0.667 0.752 201 1 W RP W Cr L Cg
10 14 Michigan State (11-4) 0.733 0.739 184 1 L Wi W Mn
11 7 Colorado College (8-5) 0.615 0.731 174 1 L Pv L BU
12 16 Michigan (11-4) 0.733 0.726 168 1 L Mn W Wi
13 26 Providence (7-6) 0.538 0.714 155 1 W Cr W CC W DU
14 18 Miami (7-4-2) 0.615 0.707 149 1
15 13 Minnesota (5-8-1) 0.393 0.683 127 1 W Mi L MS
16 28 Ferris State (8-6) 0.571 0.659 110 1 W SL W Ck
17 19 Lake Superior (6-6) 0.500 0.648 103 1 W BG L BG
18 21 Merrimack (6-6-1) 0.500 0.636 95.5 1 L Cg W Cr
19 22 Boston College (5-5) 0.500 0.634 94.5 1
20 12 Minnesota-Duluth (5-5) 0.500 0.634 94.3 1 W MT L MT
21 27 Northern Michigan (12-3-1) 0.781 0.629 91.9 1 W Ak W Ak
22 30 Northeastern (4-5-2) 0.455 0.611 82.1 1 W Pn
23 10 MSU-Mankato (4-4) 0.500 0.609 81.1 1 L SC L SC
24 24 St Cloud (5-7) 0.417 0.607 80.2 1 W Mk W Mk
25 2 Harvard (4-3) 0.571 0.555 58.6 1 L BU L Bn
26 8 Cornell (4-5) 0.444 0.545 55.0 1 L Pv L Ni L Mr
27 23 Alaska-Anchorage (6-6) 0.500 0.536 52.3 1
28 34 Notre Dame (5-7-2) 0.429 0.518 46.9 1 L NH W Vt
29 32 Western Michigan (6-6-2) 0.500 0.512 45.1 1 W Da L Da
30 25 Denver (5-9) 0.357 0.482 37.3 1 L BU L Pv
31 38 Mass Lowell (4-8-1) 0.346 0.473 35.2 1 W Ct W AF
32 20 Yale (4-4-2) 0.500 0.472 35.1 1 T Pn L AF W Ct
33 36 Nebraska-Omaha (2-4-4) 0.400 0.466 33.8 1
34 39 Bowling Green (4-9) 0.308 0.446 29.6 1 L LS W LS
35 29 Clarkson (2-7-2) 0.273 0.437 27.9 1 L FS
36 43 Air Force (5-3) 0.625 0.414 23.8 1 W Ya L ML
37 31 Vermont (3-7-2) 0.333 0.412 23.5 1 T MA L ND L Nt
38 37 Dartmouth (2-3-2) 0.429 0.401 21.6 1 L WM W WM
39 33 Princeton (1-4-3) 0.312 0.394 20.7 1 T Ya L NE
40 42 Mass Amherst (3-5-2) 0.400 0.386 19.4 1 T Vt W Un
41 35 Union (3-8) 0.273 0.344 14.0 1 L MA
42 40 Alaska-Fairbanks (3-11) 0.214 0.336 13.1 1 L NM L NM
43 41 Ohio State (2-11-1) 0.179 0.331 12.5 1
44 47 Brown (1-6) 0.143 0.295 8.88 1 W Ha
45 48 Michigan Tech (1-13) 0.071 0.265 6.31 1 L MD W MD
46 44 Quinnipiac (8-2-2) 0.750 0.134 474 2 T Io
47 46 Sacred Heart (4-1-2) 0.714 0.107 160 2 W HC
48 50 Iona (3-4-2) 0.444 0.080 70.7 2 T Qn
49 45 Holy Cross (2-6-1) 0.278 0.080 69.9 2 L Ar L SH
50 49 Canisius (3-4) 0.429 0.079 67.9 2
51 52 Army (3-6-1) 0.350 0.068 50.1 2 W HC L RP
52 51 American Int'l (2-3-2) 0.429 0.064 44.8 2
53 53 Fairfield (0-7-2) 0.111 0.036 18.7 2
54 54 Connecticut (1-8) 0.111 0.031 15.9 2 L ML L Ya
Team abbreviations:
AA Alaska-Anchorage FS Ferris State NH New Hampshire
AF Air Force Ha Harvard Ni Niagara
AI American Int'l HC Holy Cross NM Northern Michigan
Ak Alaska-Fairbanks Io Iona NO Nebraska-Omaha
Ar Army LS Lake Superior Nt Notre Dame
BC Boston College MA Mass Amherst OS Ohio State
BG Bowling Green MD Minnesota-Duluth Pn Princeton
Bn Brown Me Maine Pv Providence
BU Boston University Mi Michigan Qn Quinnipiac
Ca Canisius Mk MSU-Mankato RP Rensselaer
CC Colorado College ML Mass Lowell SC St Cloud
Cg Colgate Mm Miami SH Sacred Heart
Ck Clarkson Mn Minnesota SL St Lawrence
Cr Cornell Mr Merrimack Un Union
Ct Connecticut MS Michigan State Vt Vermont
Da Dartmouth MT Michigan Tech Wi Wisconsin
DU Denver ND North Dakota WM Western Michigan
Fa Fairfield NE Northeastern Ya Yale
There is a KRACH webpage, at http://www.mscs.dal.ca/~butler/krach.html
(or without the final "l"), containing week-by-week ratings.
(The explanation of the rating system is still last year's, but that will
change soon.)
The major change from last year's system has been the removal of the
"fictitious games" that were so painful to explain. As a result, the teams
may wind up divided into groups, especially early in the season. This
week, for example, there are two groups (see the "Grp" column): everyone
down to Michigan Tech, then from Quinnipiac on down. The split occurred
because no team in group 2 has gained *any* points against a team in group
1; KRACH thinks, so far, that group 2 is "infinitely worse" than group 1.
The ratings, therefore, are group-specific. (As a result of this,
Quinnipiac is stuck at #46 until somebody in group 2 at least avoids
defeat against a team from group 1.)
Because this is a mess to interpret, we've come up with a new quantity,
the RRWP or "round-robin winning percentage". This says that, if a team
played everyone else on the list once, this is the winning percentage it
would get (based on the KRACH figures). RRWP ranks teams the same way as
KRACH rating does (within a group), and the difference between RRWP and
the actual winning percentage says something about strength of schedule
(strong in the case of Minnesota, weak in the case of Quinnipiac). RRWP is
basically winning percentage adjusted for strength of schedule.
Finally, the "Games" at the right of the table are the ones played in the
current week (Monday through Sunday), listed as result (W/L/T) and
opponent (abbreviated; the list of abbreviations is below the table of
ratings).
--
Ken Butler, Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics, Dalhousie University
[log in to unmask] / http://www.mscs.dal.ca/~butler
Tants caps, tants barrets.
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