Back and... well, at least not much worse than ever, it’s the ECAC Playoff
Permutation Spectacular! Let’s get the easy ones out of the way first; no
matter what happens, Quinnipiac, St. Lawrence, and Princeton are guaranteed to
finish first, second, and twelfth respectively. However, plenty of intrigue is
still left over for positions three through eleven.
Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish. As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2015/ecac.cgimain.shtml
For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Dartmouth wins the
head-to-head tiebreaker against Cornell with a 2-0 record; however, in a
five-way tie (yes, I said five) involving these two, Yale, Harvard, and
Colgate, Dartmouth would actually be seeded lower than Cornell.
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. League wins.
3. Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4. Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6. Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
Without further ado, here's how things shape up:
Yale:
THIS WEEKEND: Colgate, Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches third with a win over Colgate.
BEST CASE: Third.
WORST CASE: Would fall to seventh if they lose twice, Harvard and Dart-
mouth get at least three points each, Cornell also beats Brown, and
Colgate doesn’t lose to Brown.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Harvard; loses to Cornell; could win or lose against
Colgate and Dartmouth.
Harvard:
THIS WEEKEND: Quinnipiac, Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep guarantees fourth place.
BEST CASE: Finishes third with a sweep if Yale gets no more than one
point.
WORST CASE: Slides to seventh with two losses if Colgate gets at least one
point and Dartmouth and Cornell pick up at least two points each.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate; loses to Yale; could win or lose against Dart-
mouth and Cornell
Colgate:
THIS WEEKEND: At Yale, at Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up fifth with three points.
BEST CASE: Climbs to third with a sweep if Harvard does not win twice.
WORST CASE: Drops to seventh if they lose twice and Dartmouth and Cornell
get at least two points each.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Harvard and Cornell; could win or lose against Yale
and Dartmouth.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEKEND: Princeton, Quinnipiac.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches sixth with a pair of wins.
BEST CASE: Would rise to third with a sweep if Yale gets no more than one
point and Harvard and Colgate each get no more than two points each.
WORST CASE: Ends up in eighth place with two losses if Clarkson sweeps,
Cornell gets at least two points, and Harvard and Cornell do not both
finish in the top four.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Yale, Harvard, Colgate, Cornell,
and Clarkson.
Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: At Brown, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: One point will give Cornell seventh place.
BEST CASE: Would finish third with a sweep if Harvard and Dartmouth get no
more than two points each and Colgate also beats Yale but loses to Brown.
WORST CASE: Falls to eighth if they lose twice and Clarkson sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale, Colgate, and Clarkson; could win or lose against
Harvard and Dartmouth.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEKEND: At Rensselaer, at Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Gets eighth with at least a tie against Rensselaer or a win
over Union.
BEST CASE: Climbs to sixth with a sweep if Dartmouth and Cornell both lose
twice.
WORST CASE: Finishes ninth if they lose twice and Rensselaer also beats
St. Lawrence.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Cornell; could win or lose against Dartmouth and
Rensselaer.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEKEND: Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: Two points will wrap up ninth place.
BEST CASE: Clinches eighth with a sweep if Clarkson does not beat Union.
WORST CASE: Would drop to eleventh with two losses if Union and Brown get
at least three points each.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Union; loses to Brown; could win or lose against
Clarkson.
Union:
THIS WEEKEND: St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: Guarantees tenth with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Finishes ninth with two wins if Rensselaer gets no more than
one point.
WORST CASE: Falls to eleventh with two losses if Brown gets at least two
points.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Rensselaer; could win or lose against Brown.
Brown:
THIS WEEKEND: Cornell, Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Has already wrapped up eleventh place and can do no better
without help.
BEST CASE: Would climb to ninth if they sweep, Rensselaer gets no more
than one point, and Union gets no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Eleventh.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; could win or lose against Union.
Bill Fenwick
[log in to unmask]
|
