> > Keith Instone (who is *not* using my What If page, BTW) writes on INFO:
 
> >> RPI: Could get in with a win, because they could then win comparisons
> >> over OSU and Princeton. They would still lose to NMU and Michigan, so
> >> RPI could be the 12th team in.
 
I reply:
 
> > Have you got a scenario where they do make it?  With wins by
> > Rensselaer, either team in the CCHA final and high seeds everywhere
> > else, I still find the Engineers on the outside looking in, with the
> > CCHA final loser and either OSU or Notre Dame (depending on what you
> > do with the bubble) in the field of twelve.
 
Keith answers:
 
> I found a way that RPI *could* get in. It takes some iffy definitions
> of "bubble" teams, but in general I think it follows the way the
> committee does stuff. Since the committee has never defined this part
> of the process very well, it could go this way, but it might not
> either.
>
> In my scenario, I said RPI, NMU, SLU and UNH win. Why? NMU winning
> puts Michigan on the bubble, and RPI has played SLU more than
> Clarkson and UNH more than BC.
>
> Add NMU to the field, and you have 2 slots left (assuming QC is out).
> Then define your bubble teams as those with 7 or more criteria
> comparison wins (PWR).
 
> So we have Michigan, OSU, RPI and Princeton as the bubble teams. The
> key is that Notre Dame is NOT a bubble team, with only 6 PWR (RPI
> loses to Notre Dame, so it is best if the Irish are not a bubble
> team).
 
[rest of scenario deleted]
 
As you say, we don't know what the committee does when the definition
of "the bubble" is ambiguous, but I don't think they would do things
this way, since Notre Dame is off the bubble you define only by virtue
of losing the comparison to Holy Cross.  If HC and UConn are removed,
the teams with 5 or more of the remaining comparisons won are those
you mentioned plus Notre Dame.  We know that the committee does not
consider comparisons with teams not being considered for a particular
slot when determining who is actually in that slot (and HC is doubly
out by virtue of being in the MAAC and way off the bubble), so it
seems reasonable to infer that they also ignore those comparisons when
defining the bubble in the first place.  Of course, carrying this
argument to its extreme also places Niagara on the bubble, but I think
it's safer to toss out the HC and UConn comparisons when evaluating
Notre Dame's bubbleness than to toss out HC, Providence, UConn,
Colgate and Mankato when evaluating Niagara's.  After all, I assume
that comparisons against teams with auto-bids would not be considered
in defining the bubble either.
 
                                          John Whelan, Cornell '91
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                                     http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/
 
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