I think we all agree on the field; here are the top twelve
teams from the PWR on USCHO:
1 *+ Michigan (C) 2 + Clarkson (E)
3 *+ North Dakota (W) 8 *+ Boston University (H)
4 Minnesota (W) 5 New Hampshire (H)
10 Miami (C) 6 Vermont (E)
11 Denver (W) 9 * Cornell (E)
12 Colorado College (W)
13 Michigan State (C)
* Tournament Champion + Regular Season Champion
Note that teams 5-9 are all in the East, and 10-13 all in the West.
Also note that with Maine's ineligibility and BU's automatic bye,
there are effectively no teams between #6 UVM and #9 Cornell.
Michigan, NoDak and BU all get automatic byes, and it's pretty clear
Clarkson gets the other one. And Michigan and Clarkson clearly get
the top seeds. A straight swap of the bottom teams gives:
Plan A:
1 Michigan (C) 2 Clarkson (E)
3 North Dakota (W) 8 Boston University (H)
4 Minnesota (W) 5 New Hampshire (H)
9 Cornell (E) 6 Vermont (E)
10 Miami (C) 12 Colorado College (W)
11 Denver (W) 13 Michigan State (C)
But of course that has the all-WCHA bracket, plus possible
second-round matchups in the other three conferences. I'm assuming,
based on last year, that the NC$$ will send different teams to
different regionals to avoid first-, and possibly second-round
matchups, but will not alter the relative seeding within a regional.
They have to break up the Minnesota-Denver pairing, and the only way
to do that would be to send one of those two East, or to slip Michigan
State in below DU. I'm sure the NC$$ wants to do the latter anyway
for attendance purposes. Based on PWR, Denver is the next best team
to send away, but sending Miami eliminates the potential
Miami-Michigan matchup. So switching MSU and Miami gives:
Plan B:
1 Michigan (C) 2 Clarkson (E)
3 North Dakota (W) 8 Boston University (H)
4 Minnesota (W) 5 New Hampshire (H)
9 Cornell (E) 6 Vermont (E)
11 Denver (W) 10 Miami (C)
13 Michigan State (C) 12 Colorado College (W)
Okay, now the West regional has only the potential
Minnesota-NoDak matchup, and with seven Western teams, a second-round
matchup is basically inevitable. But in the East, we have two
possible matchups in the second round: Clarkson-Vermont and BU-UNH.
There is one way to reduce this to only one, if they really want to be
f*ckers: send UNH West instead of Cornell:
Plan C:
1 Michigan (C) 2 Clarkson (E)
3 North Dakota (W) 8 Boston University (H)
4 Minnesota (W) 6 Vermont (E)
5 New Hampshire (H) 9 Cornell (E)
11 Denver (W) 10 Miami (C)
13 Michigan State (C) 12 Colorado College (W)
Then there's only one second-round matchup in the East,
Cornell-Clarkson. (Interesting how both "raw" 2-3 matchups are
rematches of conference finals, and getting rid of one of those would
mean setting up another one.) This would be a dreadful thing for them
to do: a team which would have had a bye based on the PWR being sent
to the other region. (And I don't want Cornell to play Clarkson again
in the regionals; tonight should close the book on that battle for
this season.)
At this point, we should consider the other unthinkable
possibility: what if Minnesota goes East instead of CC?
Plan D:
1 Michigan (C) 2 Clarkson (E)
3 North Dakota (W) 8 Boston University (H)
9 Cornell (E) 4 Minnesota (W)
10 Miami (C) 5 New Hampshire (H)
11 Denver (W) 6 Vermont (E)
12 Colorado College (W) 13 Michigan State (C)
Now there are three matchups, although two of them involve upsets, and
only one is a pairing that actually occurred in the conference
tournaments. But it's worse that Plan B in that the #4 team in the
country has to swap regions, and in that Minnesota and Michigan State
would be playing out of the region (can you say attendance?).
Plan B seems like the least of evils to me (although the rematches of
conference finals if the #3 seeds win seems pretty icky), but knowing
the NC$$, I wouldn't be surprised by Plan C. How big a draw is UNH?
We'll know in a little more than twelve hours...
John Whelan, Cornell '91
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Cornell Men's Ice Hockey: Back-to-back ECAC and Ivy League Champions
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