There are a few parts to this, a collection of somewhat organized
ramblings.  Somewhat.  Well, maybe not.
 
I. WOOF
=======
I think that from the results we have seen thus far this season, the
only thing that is obvious is this:
 
The polls are as useless this season as they ever were.
 
And forget dalmatians...the polls are multiplying like jackrabbits.
Everybody and his long-lost brother's uncle has a poll out now.  None
of them tell me anything.  I could order the teams by winning
percentage and come up with almost as viable a top 10: Michigan, UNH/NU,
Maine/Harvard/SLU/CC, BG, LSSU/NMU.  (actually Steve Twombly had done
this a couple of days ago.)
 
The ratings I find more interesting, because of certain trends they
point to - but it's still too early in the season to give them a heavy
weight.
 
Looking at the consensus top 10 of four polls that was compiled by
Bill Fenwick, it seems to me that any of those 10 teams could very
well be the best team in the country this season.  Throw the names of
the ten teams in a hat and draw them, and whatever order they came
out, I wouldn't have a problem with it.
 
I've told some people this, but I consider this season to be one in
which there is perhaps more so-called parity than in a long time.
Look at the number of close games between top teams and lower teams.
The number of upsets.  College hockey seems to be borrowing from the
NFL - "On any given day...".  So I'm not surprised when these upsets
or near-upsets occur.  We're going to see a lot more of them before
the year is out and it should make for some exciting conference and
national tourney action.  Remember the year that all the favorites
won in the conference tourneys?  I can't see that happening this
season.
 
II. LOOKING AT A TEAM'S OPPONENTS
=================================
This has something to do with why Walt said "Play teams that lose and
you too can be number 1."  Top teams tend to win more, so they should
play teams that lose (because they beat their opponents more), to a
certain extent.  Also, in the PHOENIX rating, the opponents' W-L % is
not quite correct.  To be useful, it should not include the games
between the team in question and their opponents, or else consideration
is given to those games twice (in the team's W-L, and in the opponents'
W-L).  (This is my opinion, shared by some others...arguments to the
contrary are welcome.)
 
So while Maine is listed as having a .452 opp win %, it should really
be 33-31-5 or .514.  Pretty big difference.  (Acadia not included, nor
did I include games between DivI opponents and non-DivI teams, because
we cannot accurately gauge how good opponents outside the system are.)
 
For example, Providence is 3-7-1.  But they're 3-3-1 against DivI
teams other than Maine.  (I did not include the loss to DivII UAH.)
 
Since I have not bothered to go through and do this for all of the
DivI teams, we also cannot gauge how good Maine's schedule is,
compared to the rest of DivI.  But Keith has done this in his TCHCR,
and there he has Maine's schedule as ranked 24th.  So it's somewhere
in the middle.  Meanwhile, Maine is 2nd in TCHCR.
 
III. OVERRATED/UNDERRATED
=========================
The distinction I draw between Michigan/Maine and RPI/BU at this point
of the season is that the first two have not lost to any teams they
"shouldn't lose to", while the latter two have (RPI to Merrimack and
perhaps UNH can count here too; BU to NU although NU's stock is rising
rapidly as it should).  So I cannot quite agree that Michigan and
Maine are overrated at this point, nor that BU and RPI are underrated.
After all, Michigan (BG, LSSU) and Maine (BU) have played good teams
as well and posted wins.  Maine is starting to enter what I consider a
tough stretch in the schedule, so we'll see how they fare - and
they'll be without Kariya for much of it.
 
HE observers would probably also not agree that UNH was clearly
overrated.  UNH suffered few key losses and had one of the best
incoming classes in the nation, along with picking up transfer goalie
Mike Heinke who starred at Providence.  Lower top 10 seems about right
to me, since they've pulled off a couple of big wins (SLU, @ RPI,
Clarkson) and lost one or two they maybe shouldn't have.  They'll also
be hitting a tough stretch in the schedule with Lowell (2), Maine, &
NU their next 4 opponents.
 
In general, because I consider this a pretty even year, I have a lot
of trouble calling teams underrated or overrated.  Every team in HE,
for example, can skate with every other team in the nation.  Merrimack
and Providence may end up at the bottom somewhere, but they won't get
blown out; Maine and BU may finish at the top, but they'll have to
fight for every win they get.
 
So I suggest not worrying about the polls.  Buy yourself a ceramic
dalmatian, put it in the yard or in the house somewhere, and every
time you look at it, think of how it's somewhat nice to look at, but
in the grand scheme of things (your well-groomed yard or nicely-
decorated living room), it's really not worth anything at all.  Just
like the polls.
---                                                                 ---
Mike Machnik                                          [log in to unmask]
Cabletron Systems, Inc.                                  *HMM* 11/13/93
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