I imagine my computer rating system is about as meaningless as any poll,
this early in the season,  but I thought I'd post anyway. BGSU fans
might thank me!
 
The W-L records shown include only those games against other teams on the
list, and not exhibitions, Canadian college games, etc. The "rating"
in the last column is on a "log-odds" scale, explained below; a 1-point
difference means that the higher team has a 73% chance of beating the
lower team.
 
   1. Michigan             7- 0- 1   12.718
   2. Bowling Green        5- 0- 1   12.577
   3. Maine                5- 0      12.488
   4. New Hampshire        6- 0      12.166
   5. Harvard              3- 0      11.726
   6. Lake Superior        6- 2      11.442
   7. Colorado Coll        6- 0- 2   11.394
   8. Mass-Lowell          4- 0- 1   11.019
   9. Northeastern         4- 1      10.996
  10. Michigan Tech        4- 2- 2   10.842
  11. N Michigan           6- 2      10.751
  12. Boston U             3- 2      10.591
  13. St Lawrence          3- 2      10.571
  14. Brown                2- 1      10.471
  15. Merrimack            4- 3      10.408
  16. RPI                  3- 2      10.340
  17. Wisconsin            4- 3- 1   10.222
  18. Michigan State       4- 2- 1   10.136
  19. Cornell              1- 0- 1   10.118
  20. Miami                2- 4       9.943
  21. Minn-Duluth          3- 3- 2    9.921
  22. Notre Dame           2- 3- 1    9.872
  23. Alaska-Anchorage     3- 5       9.778
  24. W Michigan           3- 4- 1    9.763
  25. Providence           2- 5       9.749
  26. Clarkson             2- 2- 1    9.724
  27. Colgate              2- 3       9.661
  28. Denver               3- 3       9.620
  29. Boston College       1- 2- 1    9.575
  30. Dartmouth            1- 2       9.505
  31. North Dakota         3- 5       9.435
  32. Ohio State           1- 4- 1    9.386
  33. Alaska-Fairbanks     3- 5       9.376
  34. Kent                 2- 3- 1    9.286
  35. Minnesota            1- 5- 2    9.194
  36. Massachusetts        0- 1       9.127
  37. St Cloud             2- 5- 1    9.083
  38. Ill-Chicago          2- 6       9.053
  39. Princeton            0- 2       8.994
  40. Yale                 0- 2       8.994
  41. Union                1- 2       8.945
  42. Ferris State         1- 8       8.774
  43. Air Force            0- 6       8.498
  44. Vermont              0- 4- 1    8.398
  45. Army                 0- 4       7.559
 
Harvard's surprisingly high position is based mostly on their defeat of
#14 Brown (otherwise undefeated), though Brown's victories were not
exactly against powerhouses!
 
The rating system is my attempt to combine win-loss records with strength
of opposition to produce one overall figure representing the strength of
each team. The ratings are related to win probabilities by (non-
mathematicians can ignore this bit) prob=1/(1+exp(-rating diff)), which
converts any (+ or -) rating difference into a probability between
zero and one. The ratings are found by matching the observed wins with
expected wins, given the strength of opposition.
 
One of these days I'll find a more user-friendly rating scale!
 
--
Ken Butler
[log in to unmask]