Erik Biever:

> The RPI formula, like it or not, treats all games equally.  That's
> not likely to change anytime soon.  To alleviate the alleged bias,
> the Ice Hockey Committee could add something like 'ratio of
> home/away non-conference games' as a selection criterion.  That
> seems unlikely.

RPI does lots of unfortunate things that aren't likely to change
soon. :-(

Andrew Rapoff:

> Doesn't one of the other ranking systems (HEAL???) consider home
> versus away games?  What does it show with respect to rankings?

The Bradley-Terry method used to produce the KRACH ratings can also be
modified to include the effects of home.  I tossed together some code,
which hasn't undergone even the most obvious of checks, but the
numbers that came out looked plausible, so here they are.  The Home
Ice Bradley-Terry rating (basically KRACH with home ice taken into
account) is in the first column, the regular KRACH rating in the
second.  Since the question was about strength of schedule, that's
listed in the next two columns; HISOS takes home ice into account,
KSOS does not.  Each of these is just the relevant rating divided by
the ratio of points for to points against (equivalent to winning
percentage), listed in the third column.

   __Team______   HIBT __KRACH__  __HISOS__  __KSOS___  __PF/PA__
 1 Mich State     1150  1135(# 1) 202.9(#14) 200.2(#16) 5.667(# 1)
 2 St Cloud      947.8  1113(# 2) 255.7(# 7) 300.5(# 7) 3.706(# 2)
 3 Boston Coll   723.9 732.3(# 4) 210.2(#13) 212.6(#13) 3.444(# 3)
 4 North Dakota  689.1 789.9(# 3) 251.6(# 8) 288.4(# 8) 2.739(# 4)
 5 CO College    589.5 720.2(# 5) 278.1(# 4) 339.7(# 4) 2.120(# 6)
 6 Minnesota     561.1 676.0(# 6) 260.5(# 6) 313.8(# 6) 2.154(# 5)
 7 Wisconsin     424.7 515.2(# 7) 295.5(# 2) 358.4(# 1) 1.438(#16)
 8 Michigan      416.7 423.9(# 8) 219.7(#10) 223.5(#11) 1.897(# 8)
 9 Denver U      323.5 391.8(# 9) 261.8(# 5) 317.2(# 5) 1.235(#24)
10 Providence    309.3 327.1(#10) 183.0(#18) 193.6(#17) 1.690(#11)
11 Maine         288.7 313.2(#11) 186.0(#16) 201.9(#15) 1.552(#14)
12 New Hampshire 267.9 294.8(#12) 167.4(#25) 184.3(#19) 1.600(#12)
13 MSU-Mankato   249.1 293.6(#13) 236.3(# 9) 278.5(# 9) 1.054(#30)
14 Northern Mich 233.9 244.5(#14) 179.5(#20) 187.6(#18) 1.303(#21)
15 Western Mich  221.9 218.9(#16) 154.3(#29) 152.3(#30) 1.438(#17)
16 NE-Omaha      214.1 222.4(#15) 150.4(#30) 156.1(#29) 1.424(#18)
17 Miami         191.1 197.2(#17) 154.7(#28) 159.6(#27) 1.235(#23)
18 Mass-Lowell   187.9 188.4(#18) 160.4(#26) 160.8(#26) 1.171(#25)
19 Clarkson      176.3 174.1(#19) 97.93(#37) 96.70(#39) 1.800(#10)
20 St Lawrence   172.1 165.7(#20) 109.5(#33) 105.5(#34) 1.571(#13)
21 Ohio State    164.7 157.1(#22) 184.1(#17) 175.6(#24) .8947(#31)
22 Boston Univ   153.8 161.0(#21) 213.3(#11) 223.3(#12) .7209(#38)
23 Northeastern  143.1 146.0(#23) 200.3(#15) 204.3(#14) .7143(#39)
24 Bowling Green 137.2 127.4(#26) 159.5(#27) 148.0(#31) .8605(#33)
25 Harvard       124.1 124.7(#27) 116.8(#32) 117.3(#32) 1.062(#29)
26 Merrimack     122.8 130.5(#25) 168.9(#24) 179.4(#22) .7273(#37)
27 Michigan Tech 115.3 135.4(#24) 299.7(# 1) 352.1(# 2) .3846(#53)
28 Ferris State  114.7 116.0(#30) 170.1(#23) 172.0(#25) .6744(#43)
29 Dartmouth     112.4 116.5(#29) 99.91(#36) 103.5(#35) 1.125(#27)
30 Cornell       111.2 114.9(#31) 87.18(#42) 90.05(#41) 1.276(#22)
31 AK-Anchorage  102.9 122.9(#28) 287.0(# 3) 342.8(# 3) .3585(#54)
32 RPI           99.60 97.09(#32) 88.53(#41) 86.30(#42) 1.125(#28)
33 Yale          91.31 90.11(#33) 103.9(#35) 102.5(#36) .8788(#32)
34 Lake Superior 86.79 87.28(#35) 181.5(#19) 182.5(#21) .4783(#50)
35 Notre Dame    86.10 86.18(#36) 175.7(#21) 175.8(#23) .4902(#49)
36 AK-Fairbanks  84.04 89.78(#34) 148.7(#31) 158.8(#28) .5652(#47)
37 AL-Huntsville 80.94 78.73(#37) 53.96(#46) 52.49(#45) 1.500(#15)
38 Vermont       75.90 77.08(#38) 96.14(#38) 97.64(#38) .7895(#34)
39 Mass-Amherst  73.03 76.22(#39) 175.3(#22) 182.9(#20) .4167(#51)
40 Princeton     64.31 66.10(#41) 95.17(#39) 97.83(#37) .6757(#42)
41 Minn-Duluth   63.86 75.87(#40) 212.9(#12) 252.9(#10) .3000(#55)
42 Union         56.44 57.04(#42) 80.62(#43) 81.48(#43) .7000(#40)
43 Colgate       50.65 49.16(#43) 92.86(#40) 90.12(#40) .5455(#48)
44 Mercyhurst    48.78 36.30(#45) 23.33(#49) 17.36(#49) 2.091(# 7)
45 Quinnipiac    45.49 33.43(#46) 24.64(#48) 18.11(#48) 1.846(# 9)
46 Niagara       41.99 38.94(#44) 55.43(#45) 51.40(#46) .7576(#36)
47 Iona          29.45 21.60(#48) 21.70(#50) 15.91(#50) 1.357(#20)
48 Brown         28.05 29.33(#47) 107.5(#34) 112.4(#33) .2609(#56)
49 Canisius      27.96 20.63(#49) 20.19(#51) 14.90(#51) 1.385(#19)
50 Air Force     21.58 20.06(#50) 27.75(#47) 25.79(#47) .7778(#35)
51 Sacred Heart  18.88 13.51(#51) 16.59(#54) 11.87(#55) 1.138(#26)
52 Connecticut   13.81 10.02(#52) 19.74(#52) 14.31(#52) .7000(#41)
53 Army          10.42 7.676(#54) 17.36(#53) 12.79(#53) .6000(#45)
54 Fairfield     9.440 6.933(#55) 14.16(#57) 10.40(#58) .6667(#44)
55 American Intl 8.395 6.371(#56) 14.79(#56) 11.23(#56) .5676(#46)
56 Bemidji State 7.743 7.986(#53) 72.78(#44) 75.07(#44) .1064(#58)
57 Holy Cross    6.469 4.908(#57) 16.53(#55) 12.54(#54) .3913(#52)
58 Bentley       2.793 2.167(#58) 13.41(#58) 10.40(#57) .2083(#57)

I made the arbitrary distinction that all games listed with a 'vs'
rather than an 'at' in the USCHO composite schedule are neutral site
games.  The home ice advantage, assumed to be the same for all teams,
is 1.465 (meaning a team with a HIBT of 121.0 will have an effective
rating of 100 on the road and 146.5 at home).  Here are the overall,
home, away, and neutral site records for each team:

   __Team______  _Total_  __Home_  _Away__  _Neut   _HI_Adv_
 1 Mich State    32- 4-4  15- 1-1  12- 2-2  5-1-1    1.465
 2 St Cloud      31- 8-1  16- 4-1  13- 4-0  2-0-0    1.465
 3 Boston Coll   30- 8-2  12- 3-1  12- 4-1  6-1-0    1.465
 4 North Dakota  27- 7-9  12- 2-5  13- 3-3  2-2-1    1.465
 5 CO College    26-12-1  16- 5-1   8- 6-0  2-1-0    1.465
 6 Minnesota     27-12-2  18- 4-1   8- 6-1  1-2-0    1.465
 7 Wisconsin     21-14-4  11- 8-1   8- 5-3  2-1-0    1.465
 8 Michigan      25-12-5  13- 3-3   9- 5-2  3-4-0    1.465
 9 Denver U      19-15-4  12- 9-1   7- 6-3  0-0-0    1.465
10 Providence    22-12-5  15- 4-1   5- 7-4  2-1-0    1.465
11 Maine         19-11-7  12- 4-3   5- 6-4  2-1-0    1.465
12 New Hampshire 21-12-6  12- 5-3   5- 7-2  4-0-1    1.465
13 MSU-Mankato   19-18-1  12- 8-0   7- 9-1  0-1-0    1.465
14 Northern Mich 18-13-7  10- 6-4   8- 7-3  0-0-0    1.465
15 Western Mich  20-13-6  10- 5-3   8- 8-3  2-0-0    1.465
16 NE-Omaha      22-15-3  15- 5-1   5- 9-2  2-1-0    1.465
17 Miami         20-16-2  11- 5-2   9- 9-0  0-2-0    1.465
18 Mass-Lowell   19-16-3   8- 7-2  11- 7-1  0-2-0    1.465
19 Clarkson      21-11-3  10- 5-1   9- 4-2  2-2-0    1.465
20 St Lawrence   20-12-4   9- 2-3   6-10-1  5-0-0    1.465
21 Ohio State    16-18-2   6- 9-0  10- 7-2  0-2-0    1.465
22 Boston Univ   14-20-3   8- 7-1   4-11-2  2-2-0    1.465
23 Northeastern  13-19-4   7- 6-2   5-11-2  1-2-0    1.465
24 Bowling Green 16-19-5   9- 5-2   7-13-3  0-1-0    1.465
25 Harvard       16-15-2   9- 4-1   6- 8-1  1-3-0    1.465
26 Merrimack     14-20-4  10- 7-2   4-11-1  0-2-1    1.465
27 Michigan Tech  8-24-4   2-10-4   5-13-0  1-1-0    1.465
28 Ferris State  12-19-5   7- 5-4   4-13-1  1-1-0    1.465
29 Dartmouth     16-14-4  12- 5-0   3- 7-4  1-2-0    1.465
30 Cornell       16-12-5   8- 3-5   5- 6-0  3-3-0    1.465
31 AK-Anchorage   7-24-5   2-13-3   5-11-2  0-0-0    1.465
32 RPI           17-15-2  10- 5-2   7-10-0  0-0-0    1.465
33 Yale          14-16-1   9- 5-0   5-11-1  0-0-0    1.465
34 Lake Superior 11-23-0   8- 7-0   2-16-0  1-0-0    1.465
35 Notre Dame     9-22-7   4-11-2   5- 8-4  0-3-1    1.465
36 AK-Fairbanks   9-19-8   7- 7-4   2-12-4  0-0-0    1.465
37 AL-Huntsville 15-10-0  10- 3-0   5- 7-0  0-0-0    1.465
38 Vermont       14-18-2   8- 7-1   5-10-1  1-1-0    1.465
39 Mass-Amherst   8-22-4   4- 9-3   4-13-1  0-0-0    1.465
40 Princeton     10-16-5   4- 7-4   6- 7-1  0-2-0    1.465
41 Minn-Duluth    7-28-4   5-13-2   2-14-2  0-1-0    1.465
42 Union         12-18-4  10- 5-2   2-13-1  0-0-1    1.465
43 Colgate       10-20-4   6- 7-0   4- 9-4  0-4-0    1.465
44 Mercyhurst    22-10-2  11- 3-1   8- 7-1  3-0-0    1.465
45 Quinnipiac    22-11-4  13- 3-0   8- 7-4  1-1-0    1.465
46 Niagara       10-14-5   5- 4-1   2- 9-3  3-1-1    1.465
47 Iona          17-12-4  10- 1-3   7-10-1  0-1-0    1.465
48 Brown          4-21-4   3-10-1   1-11-3  0-0-0    1.465
49 Canisius      16-11-4  10- 1-2   5- 7-2  1-3-0    1.465
50 Air Force      9-12-3   6- 4-1   2- 6-2  1-2-0    1.465
51 Sacred Heart  14-12-5  10- 2-2   4-10-3  0-0-0    1.465
52 Connecticut   12-18-4   7- 5-1   5-13-3  0-0-0    1.465
53 Army          12-20-0   8- 6-0   4-14-0  0-0-0    1.465
54 Fairfield     11-17-2   7- 4-2   3-12-0  1-1-0    1.465
55 American Intl 10-18-1   7- 7-0   3-11-1  0-0-0    1.465
56 Bemidji State  1-22-3   1- 9-2   0-12-0  0-1-1    1.465
57 Holy Cross     8-22-2   7- 5-1   1-16-1  0-1-0    1.465
58 Bentley        4-23-2   3-10-1   1-12-1  0-1-0    1.465

                                          John Whelan, Cornell '91
                                                 [log in to unmask]
                                     http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/

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