Well, here we go again, another ECAC final regular-season weekend with the
usual chaotic tiebreaking scenarios. Thanks to John Whelan's excellent
tiebreaking script (http://www.slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/ecac.cgi.shtml), the
figuring-out process is a lot easier than it was in the days of (lots of)
pencil and paper, but it's still a huge mess.
Brown's fate has already been determined; the Bears can do no better (or
for that matter, worse) than last place. For the other ECAC teams, I've
listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more
than those two teams tied.
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. Record against the top five teams in the conference.
3. Record against the top ten teams in the conference.
4. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5. Goal differential against the top five teams in the conference.
6. Goal differential against the top ten teams in the conference.
There may or may not be a seventh tiebreaker, consisting of a coin flip
between two teams or a drawing of lots among three or more teams.
Thankfully, I have yet to find a situation where a seventh tiebreaker would
be necessary.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEKEND: At Dartmouth, at Vermont.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep guarantees first place for the Saints.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Finishes second if Clarkson gets at least two more points
than they do
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Clarkson.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEKEND: At Vermont, at Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: The Knights have already clinched second place and can
do
no better without help.
BEST CASE: Finishes first with a sweep if St. Lawrence gets no more
than
two points.
WORST CASE: Second.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against St. Lawrence.
Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: Rensselaer, Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches third place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Third.
WORST CASE: Would finish eighth with two losses if Princeton sweeps,
Rensselaer also beats Colgate, Dartmouth gets at least one point,
Harvard
and Yale tie, and Yale beats Brown. This would set up at least a
three-way
tie among Yale, Princeton, and Cornell (four-way if Dartmouth gets
only one
point), and the tiebreakers would put Cornell eighth.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Dartmouth and Yale; could win or lose against
Harvard, Rensselaer, and Princeton.
Harvard:
THIS WEEKEND: Yale, Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep clinches fourth place.
BEST CASE: Finishes third with two wins if Cornell does not win
twice.
WORST CASE: Drops to eighth if they get swept, Yale and Princeton
also
beat Brown, Rensselaer wins twice, Cornell beats Union, and Dartmouth
picks
up at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; loses to Yale; could win or lose
against
Cornell, Dartmouth, and Princeton
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEKEND: St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points would give Dartmouth fifth place.
BEST CASE: Clinches third if they sweep and Cornell and Harvard do
not.
WORST CASE: Would finish ninth if they lose twice, Union sweeps, Yale
and
Rensselaer pick up at least two points each, and Princeton gets at
least
three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell; loses to Yale, Princeton, and Union;
could win
or lose against Harvard and Rensselaer.
Yale:
THIS WEEKEND: At Harvard, at Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep clinches sixth place.
BEST CASE: Would finish third with two wins if Dartmouth gets no more
than
two points and Cornell and Harvard get no more than one point each.
WORST CASE: Falls to tenth with two losses if Vermont sweeps, Union
and
Princeton get at least two points each, and Rensselaer gets at least
three
points more than Dartmouth (so that Dartmouth does not finish in the
top
five).
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell, Harvard, and Dartmouth; could win or lose
against Rensselaer, Princeton, Union, and Vermont.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEKEND: At Cornell, at Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points wraps up seventh place.
BEST CASE: Clinches third with a sweep if Yale beats Harvard but not
Brown, Cornell also loses to Union, Harvard also loses to Princeton,
and
Dartmouth gets no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Finishes ninth if they lose twice, Yale gets at least one
point, and Union and Princeton get at least two points each.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Princeton and Vermont; loses to Harvard; could win
or
lose against Cornell, Dartmouth, Yale, and Union.
Princeton:
THIS WEEKEND: At Brown, at Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches eighth place with three points.
BEST CASE: Finishes third with a sweep if Cornell loses twice, Rens-
selaer loses to Colgate, Yale beats Harvard but loses to Brown, and
Dartmouth gets exactly one point. This sets up a four-way tie among
Princeton, Dartmouth, Cornell, and Harvard, with the tiebreakers
giving
third place to the Tigers.
WORST CASE: Falls to eleventh if they lose twice, Colgate sweeps,
Union
beats Cornell, Yale gets at least two more points than Dartmouth, and
Vermont gets exactly three points. This sets up a three-way tie among
Colgate, Vermont, and Princeton, with the tiebreakers putting the
Tigers
eleventh.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Dartmouth and Union; loses to Rensselaer; could
win or
lose against Cornell, Harvard, Yale, Vermont, and Colgate.
Union:
THIS WEEKEND: At Colgate, at Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points would give the Dutchmen ninth place.
BEST CASE: Clinches fifth with a sweep if Dartmouth loses twice, Yale
gets no more than one point, and Rensselaer and Princeton get no more
that two points each.
WORST CASE: Finishes eleventh if they get swept, Colgate also beats
Rensselaer, and Vermont picks up at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Dartmouth; loses to Princeton; could win or lose
against Yale, Rensselaer, Vermont, and Colgate.
Vermont:
THIS WEEKEND: Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches tenth place if they win twice.
BEST CASE: Finishes seventh with a sweep if Yale loses twice,
Rensselaer
picks up at least three more points than Dartmouth (so that Dartmouth
is
not in the top five), and EITHER Princeton and Union get no more than
one
point each OR Princeton loses twice and Union loses to Cornell.
WORST CASE: Would place eleventh if they get no more than one point
and
Colgate picks up at least one more point than they do.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Rensselaer and Colgate; could win or lose
against
Yale, Princeton, and Union.
Colgate:
THIS WEEKEND: Union, Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: Has already clinched eleventh place and can do no
better
without help.
BEST CASE: Finishes eighth with a sweep if Princeton loses twice,
Union
also loses to Cornell, and Vermont gets exactly three points. This
sets
up a three-way tie among Colgate, Princeton, and Vermont, with the
tie-
breakers giving Colgate eighth place.
WORST CASE: Eleventh.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Vermont; could win or lose against Princeton and
Union.
--
Disclaimer -- Unless otherwise noted, all opinions expressed above are strictly those of:
Bill Fenwick
Cornell '86 and '95 DJF
5/27/94
LET'S GO RED!! JCF
12/2/97
"It's politics, which comes from the Latin 'poli', meaning 'many', and
'tics',
meaning 'blood-sucking parasites.'"
-- Dave Barry
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