This is the time of year when I envy the other leagues and their
straightforward tiebreaking processes. I suspect working out the playoff
possibilities for Hockey East, the CCHA, and the WCHA would take maybe an hour
or two. Even the MAAC, which shows its ECAC (Div. III) roots by including
"Record against top four teams" as one of its tiebreakers, has a system that is
easier to figure out than the ECAC's delightful process. Fortunately, John
Whelan's ECAC playoff possibilities page
(http://www.slack.net/~whelan/cgi-bin/ecac.cgi) was a VERY big help.
Anyway, for each team, I've listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (within 4 points) in the
standings.
As previously posted, for two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC
tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. Record against the top five teams in the conference.
3. Record against the top ten teams in the conference.
4. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
5. Goal differential against the top five teams in the conference.
6. Goal differential against the top ten teams in the conference.
Union, which plays at Yale and at Princeton this weekend, will finish in
twelfth place. As for the other teams, here they are in order of their current
standings:
Clarkson:
THIS WEEKEND: At Colgate, at Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches first with two points.
BEST CASE: First.
WORST CASE: Finishes second if they lose twice and St. Lawrence sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against St. Lawrence
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEKEND: At Cornell, at Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Has clinched second and can do no better without help.
BEST CASE: Would finish first with a sweep if Clarkson loses twice.
WORST CASE: Second.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; could win or lose against Clarkson.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEKEND: At Princeton, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: One point locks up third place.
BEST CASE: Third.
WORST CASE: Finishes fourth if they lose twice and Princeton also beats
Union.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to St. Lawrence; could win or lose against Princeton
and Yale.
Princeton:
THIS WEEKEND: Rensselaer, Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches fourth with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Clinches third with a sweep if Rensselaer also loses to Yale.
WORST CASE: Finishes seventh if they lose twice, Yale gets at least one
point, Colgate gets at least two, and Cornell gets at least three.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale; could win or lose against Rensselaer, Colgate,
and Cornell.
Yale:
THIS WEEKEND: Union, Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points clinches fifth.
BEST CASE: Clinches third if (deep breath) they sweep, Princeton also
beats Rensselaer but loses to Union, Colgate sweeps, Harvard loses twice,
Brown gets at least two points, AND Yale's win over Rensselaer is by at
least four goals.
WORST CASE: Would finish seventh if they lose twice, Colgate gets at
least two points, and Cornell gets at least three.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate and Cornell; loses to Princeton; could win or
lose against Rensselaer
Colgate:
THIS WEEKEND: Clarkson, St. Lawrence
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches sixth with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Would finish fourth if they get at least two more points on
the weekend than either Princeton or Yale.
WORST CASE: Places seventh if they lose twice and Cornell gets at least
one point.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Yale and Cornell; could win or lose against
Princeton.
Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: St. Lawrence, Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: Has clinched seventh and can do no better without help.
BEST CASE: Clinches fourth with a sweep if Colgate gets no more than
three points and Princeton and Yale get no more than one each.
WORST CASE: Seventh.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colgate; loses to Yale; could win or lose against
Princeton.
Vermont:
THIS WEEKEND: At Harvard, at Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: A win over Harvard gives Vermont eighth place.
BEST CASE: Eighth.
WORST CASE: Finishes tenth if they lose twice and either Dartmouth
sweeps or Brown also beats Dartmouth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Dartmouth; loses to Harvard and Brown
Harvard:
THIS WEEKEND: Vermont, Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches eighth with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Eighth.
WORST CASE: Finishes eleventh if they lose twice and Brown gets at least
two points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Vermont; loses to Brown; could win or lose against
Dartmouth
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEKEND: At Brown, at Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep would give them ninth place.
BEST CASE: Clinches eighth with a sweep if Vermont loses twice.
WORST CASE: Drops to eleventh if they lose twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Vermont and Brown; could win or lose against
Harvard.
Brown:
THIS WEEKEND: Dartmouth, Vermont.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches tenth with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Would place eighth with a sweep if Harvard beats Vermont and
Dartmouth beats Harvard.
WORST CASE: Finishes eleventh if they get swept.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Vermont, Harvard, and Dartmouth
--
Disclaimer -- Unless otherwise noted, all opinions expressed above are
strictly those of:
Bill Fenwick
Cornell '86 and '95 DJF 5/27/94
LET'S GO RED!! JCF 12/2/97
"Now they have these teenage girls in the mall that spray you with perfume as
you walk by, and then they tell you what it is, like... *spray* 'Obsession!'
Shut up. You are seventeen, I am thirty-five. You do not know what
obsession is. It doesn't come in a bottle! Come here, little baby-sitter
precious, let me tell you about obsession. Obsession is waiting in the
bushes outside a married man's house at midnight with a machete in one hand
and a jar of Vicks Vapo-Rub in the other. Now you tell your daddy that.
And -- and tell him to call me."
-- Brett Butler
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