Paul Gentile writes:
 
> I see that Quinnipiac can't break the lower echelon of the various ratings
> (CHODR, Krach, etc.) even with their 8-1-1 record. I was wondering what it
> is about each rating system that will keep them from rising to any
> significant ranking? But, more importantly, I'm wondering how the MAAC teams
> with really good records will look in the RPI? If many of the teams that
> they beat will have played 20 Div. 1 games, what will keep them from a high
> ranking?
 
Six of the eight MAAC teams are eligible for the tournament (everyone
but AIC and Sacred Heart).  Here's how their RPI numbers look right
now (with all the usual caveats about how the RPI doesn't mean much
with so few games played):
 
    Team           PF-PA    PCT    OPPCT   OPOPP    RPI    vsTUC   Last16
 6 Connecticut     10- 8   0.556   0.720   0.315   0.602   0.500   0.556
17 Quinnipiac      10- 2   0.833   0.337   0.566   0.545   0.667   0.833
43 Iona            10- 6   0.625   0.228   0.557   0.416   0.000   0.625
47 Canisius         1-15   0.062   0.625   0.293   0.378   0.062   0.062
50 Holy Cross      10- 8   0.556   0.127   0.596   0.347   0.500   0.556
51 Fairfield        0-12   0.000   0.476   0.213   0.270   0.000   0.000
 
The number on the left is rank out of 51.  UConn and Q used to be
higher in the RPI, but have been dropping as small-number fluctuations
have died out.  Note that even if a MAAC team ends up in the top
twelve according to the pairwise, the committee has said it can
override that with "overall conference RPI".  Since the average RPI of
the six eligible MAAC teams is .426, .066 lower than any of the other
four conferences, while the Big Four are all within a .030 range (.522
to .492), that would probably be sufficient grounds to exclude them.
 
> Of course, many of these teams have to serve an eligibility period (2
> years?) so this is not applicable this year but how will it pan out in the
> future?
 
Like I said, six of eight are technically eligible already.  As for
how these teams may look after a couple of years of Division I
seasoning, I leave you with the following:
 
    Team           PF-PA    PCT    OPPCT   OPOPP    RPI    vsTUC   Last16
 4 MSU-Mankato     13- 3   0.812   0.481   0.579   0.612   0.625   0.812
25 Air Force        3- 5   0.375   0.613   0.361   0.492   0.500   0.375
32 Niagara          7- 9   0.438   0.495   0.494   0.475   0.500   0.438
48 Army             2-12   0.143   0.491   0.463   0.365   0.200   0.143
 
                                          John Whelan, Cornell '91
                                                  [log in to unmask]
                                     http://www.amurgsval.org/joe/
 
Attention ECAC:   Eight is Enough--Flush the Final Five!
 
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