Once again, because I kind of like doing stuff like this, and also because
no one has told me to knock it off... the ECAC Playoff Permutations! This
year, we know that the league's final standings will be bookended with Union
in first and Princeton in last, but there is still plenty of jockeying for
playoff positions left.
Going into the final weekend of league play, here's a breakdown of where
each team in the ECAC could finish. As always, I'm greatly indebted to
John Whelan's excellent playoff possibilities script at
http://www.elynah.com/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2014/ecac.cgimain.shtml
For each ECAC team, I've listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's weekend games, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a weekend sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than just those two teams tied.
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in ECAC games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. League wins.
3. Record against the top four teams in the conference.
4. Record against the top eight teams in the conference.
5. Goal differential (net goals) head-to-head.
6. Goal differential against the top four teams in the conference.
7. Goal differential against the top eight teams in the conference.
Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the remaining
ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way tie, once
one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure goes back to
the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
Without further ado, here's how things shape up:
Colgate:
THIS WEEKEND: Harvard, Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up second place with three points.
BEST CASE: Second.
WORST CASE: Drops to fourth if they lose twice, Cornell sweeps, and
Quinnipiac gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell; could win or lose against Quinnipiac.
Quinnipiac:
THIS WEEKEND: At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches third with three points this weekend.
BEST CASE: Takes second with a sweep if Colgate gets no more than one
point.
WORST CASE: Would fall to sixth with two losses if Cornell gets at least
two points, Yale sweeps, and Clarkson also beats Princeton.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale; could win or lose against Colgate, Cornell, and
Clarkson.
Cornell:
THIS WEEKEND: Dartmouth, Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Two points will guarantee fourth place.
BEST CASE: Would climb to second with a sweep if Colgate loses twice and
Quinnipiac gets no more than two points.
WORST CASE: Finishes sixth if they lose twice and Yale and Clarkson get
at least three points each.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale; loses to Colgate; could win or lose against
Quinnipiac and Clarkson.
Yale:
THIS WEEKEND: Union, Rensselaer.
ON THEIR OWN: Would clinch fifth with a pair of wins.
BEST CASE: Rises to third with a sweep if Quinnipiac loses twice and
Cor-
nell gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Slides to seventh if they get swept, Clarkson gets at least
one point, and Rensselaer also beats Brown.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Quinnipiac, Cornell, and Clarkson; could win or
lose
against Rensselaer
Clarkson:
THIS WEEKEND: Quinnipiac, Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes sixth place by getting two points.
BEST CASE: Would finish third with a sweep if Quinnipiac also loses
to St.
Lawrence, Cornell gets no more than one point, and Yale gets no more than
two points.
WORST CASE: Falls to seventh with two losses if Rensselaer gets at least
three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale, Rensselaer, and Brown; could win or lose
against
Quinnipiac and Cornell.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEKEND: At Brown, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches seventh if they don't lose to Brown.
BEST CASE: Climbs to fifth with two wins if Yale does not beat Union and
Clarkson gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Finishes ninth if they lose twice and St. Lawrence sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Clarkson; could win or lose against Yale,
Brown, and
St. Lawrence.
Brown:
THIS WEEKEND: Rensselaer, Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Guarantees seventh place with two wins.
BEST CASE: Seventh.
WORST CASE: Drops to eleventh if they lose twice, St. Lawrence gets at
least two points, and Dartmouth and Harvard sweep.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats St. Lawrence and Harvard; loses to Clarkson; could
win
or lose against Rensselaer and Dartmouth.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEKEND: Princeton, Quinnipiac.
ON THEIR OWN: Three points will give the Saints ninth place.
BEST CASE: Takes seventh with a sweep if Brown beats Rensselaer and
loses
to Union and Rensselaer does not beat Yale.
WORST CASE: Would finish in eleventh place if they lose twice and Dart-
mouth and Harvard get at least three points each.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Harvard; loses to Brown; could win or lose against
Rensselaer and Dartmouth
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEKEND: At Cornell, at Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Would take tenth place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Gets eighth with a sweep if Brown loses twice and St. Law-
rence gets no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Falls to eleventh if they lose twice and Harvard does not.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose aganst Brown, St. Lawrence, and Harvard.
Harvard:
THIS WEEKEND: At Colgate, at Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Has clinched eleventh place and can do no better without
help.
BEST CASE: Would climb to eighth with a pair of wins if Brown loses
twice, St. Lawrence gets no more than one point, and Dartmouth does not
sweep.
WORST CASE: Eleventh.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Brown and St. Lawrence; could win or lose against
Dartmouth.
--
Bill Fenwick DJF 5/27/94
Cornell '86 and '95 JCF 12/2/97
LET'S GO RED!!
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