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Subject:
From:
Ken Pavelle <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Ken Pavelle <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 17 Mar 1997 12:37:02 CST
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Cornell played fantastic hockey this weekend to capture their 2nd
consecutive ECAC Tournament championship.  On Saturday I made a
comment that if certain other games went the right way, Cornell
could be seeded significantly higher.  One game I said was
necessary was for BU to beat UNH.  I had it backwards -- if UNH
had won HE, Cornell would be rated #6 in the PWR.  Here's why:
 
First, note that BU and Cornell both have 13 PWR points:
 
Rk Team                GP  W- L- T  Win%  Rk     RPI  Rk  PWR
 1 Michigan            40 33- 3- 4 0.8750  1 | 0.6279  1 | 20
 2 Clarkson            36 27- 9- 0 0.7500  2 | 0.6001  2 | 19
 3 North Dakota        40 28-10- 2 0.7250  4 | 0.5882  4 | 18
 4 Minnesota           40 27-12- 1 0.6875  7 | 0.5809  5 | 16
 5 New Hampshire       38 28-10- 0 0.7368  3 | 0.5908  3 | 15
 6 Vermont             35 22-10- 3 0.6714 10 | 0.5786  6 | 14
 7 Maine               32 21-10- 1 0.6719  9 | 0.5639 10 | 14
 8 Boston University   38 24- 8- 6 0.7105  6 | 0.5772  8 | 13
 9 Cornell             33 20- 8- 5 0.6818  8 | 0.5700  9 | 13
10 Miami               37 26-10- 1 0.7162  5 | 0.5772  7 | 12
11 Denver              39 23-12- 4 0.6410 11 | 0.5543 12 | 10
12 Colorado College    41 23-14- 4 0.6098 15 | 0.5601 11 |  9
13 Michigan State      38 22-12- 4 0.6316 12 | 0.5474 13 |  9
 
Now, let's look at the Cornell-BU comparison:
 
SAT AM (before Championships)
 
    Boston University   vs Cornell
RPI      0.5700  1           0.5626  0
L20    13- 4- 3  1         11- 5- 4  0
TUC     4- 6- 1  0          7- 6- 2  1
H2H              0                   0
COP     8- 3- 2  1         10- 5- 2  0
============================================
PTS              3                   1
 
(note: BU's 20th game ago was a W, Cornell's was a T)
SUN AM (current)                         OR...if BU lost:
 
    Boston University   vs Cornell
RPI      0.5772  1           0.5700  0          <.5700  0      =.5700  1
L20    13- 4- 3  1         12- 5- 3  0        12- 5- 3  0    12- 5- 3  0
TUC     5- 6- 1  0          8- 6- 2  1         4- 7- 1  0     8- 6- 2  1
H2H              0                   0                  0              0
COP     8- 3- 2  1         11- 5- 2  0         8- 3- 2  1    11- 5- 2  0
 =======================================================================
PTS              3                   1                  1              2
 
In other words, if UNH won, Cornell would have won the comparison and
had 14 PWR points.  Since the win the comparisons against Maine and
Vermont, they would be #6 overall, #3 in the east:
 
Raw East Rank   Team            PWR Rank
    1E          Clarkson           2
    2E          New Hampshire      4 or 5
    3E          Cornell            6
    4E          Vermont            7
    5E          Boston U.          9
    6E          Michigan St.       13
 
 
What's my point?  Well, I have two.  First, it shows just how big
the HE win was for BU:  #2E vs #5W.
 
Second, the #3W team is going to have its hands full.  Don't be
surprised to see Cornell advance at least one round.  They're a hot
team, playing a team they've seen before.  Granted, Miami has beaten
Cornell once this season and they're a super team, but I predict
Cornell's "playoff" experience will pull them through.
 
I also have a question:  what disadvantage, if any, does the #6 seed
have as the "visiting" team?
 
 
--
from: LTJG Kenneth A. Pavelle, NOAA
      NOAA, National Weather Service
      Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center
 
      My Homepage:  http://www.abrfc.noaa.gov/kap.html
 
"Its hard to predict anything, especially the future" -- Yogi Berra
 
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