Strength of schedule definitely should be part of any team ranking
system--a big part.  But the major flaw which most systems incorporating
it include is that it doesn't allow for variations in level of play over
the season.  It's a lot harder to beat a team which has been playing
well lately than one which is in a prolonged slump.  By using the final
season record of opponents to calculate strength of schedule, systems
can give less credit than should be for some games and more for  others.
I've argued previously that at least some rating systems (e.g., TCHCR)
should incorporate a "recency" factor into their strength of schedule
computations.
 
Several posters commenting on the relative positions of Colorado College
and Minnesota have noted that CC was somewhat hurt in the RPI by virtue
of having played Northern Michigan four times while Minnesota played t
hem only twice (given that NMU ended up with its worst record in program
history, this hurt CC's strength of schedule even more than it did
Minnesota).  But look at what actually happened in the games among those
three teams.  Both CC and Minn played NMU when the Wildcats were playing
fairly well, particularly early in the second half of the season.
Results? CC killed NMU one night in the series in Marquette, then
Northern turned around the next night and returned the favor.  Minnesota
and NMU tied the first night and Northern won the second night, fairly
handily.  In fact, this meant that Minnesota was one of the very few
WCHA teams from whom Northern won the season series!
 
For whatever reason, following the good results in the Minnesota series,
the wheels totally came off Northern Michigan.  At most they won only
three more games
     the entire regular season.  So, their final record hurt everyone
who played them in the RPI, and hurt those who played them more often
(i.e., CC) than it did those who played them less often (i.e.,
Minnesota--even though Minnesota actually had its OWN record hurt more
by playing NMU than did CC).
 
The first two WCHA playoff games between Wisconsin and Northern Michigan
indicated that the earlier NMU-CC/NMU-Minn results were not total
flukes; in the final game of the playoff series, according to the
players themselves, NMU reverted to its miserable playing level of the
last third of the season.
 
So . . . anyone for incorporating "recency" in Strength of Schedule?
 
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 *  Steve Christopher, NMU    [log in to unmask]    GO 'CATS!!!         *
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