Michigan clinches the league crown; home ice has been settled, but
placement within 2-5 and 6-8 still very much up for grabs.
Games Max Hi Lo Points to clinch...
Team Pts Left Pts Fin Fin 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 Michigan 39 4 47 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 Bowling Green 30 4 38 2 5 - 7 6 6 0 0 0 0 0
3 Miami 29 4 37 2 5 - - 8 7 0 0 0 0 0
Michigan State 29 4 37 2 5 - - - 6 0 0 0 0 0
Lake Superior 29 3 35 2 5 - - - - - 0 0 0 0
6 Ferris State 22 3 28 6 8 - - - - - 5 3 0 0
7 Illinois-Chicago 18 4 26 6 9 - - - - - - 8 1 0
8 Western Michigan 17 4 25 6 9 - - - - - - - 2 0
9 Notre Dame 11 4 19 8 10 - - - - - - - - 5
10 Ohio State 8 4 16 9 10 - - - - - - - - -
Conference games left:
Michigan: FSU, @UND, @Miami, @OSU
Bowling Green: OSU, @OSU, LSSU, FSU
Miami: UIC, UIC, MSU, Michigan
Michigan State: UND, @FSU, @OSU, @Miami
Lake Superior: WMU, WMU, @BGSU
Ferris State: @Michigan, MSU, @BGSU
Illinois-Chicago: @Miami, @Miami, WMU, @UND
Western Michigan: @LSSU, @LSSU, @UIC, UND
Notre Dame: @MSU, Michigan, UIC, @WMU
Ohio State: @BGSU, BGSU, MSU, Michigan
LSSU and FSU only have three league games left. They were originally
scheduled to each play 1 game at Kent the final weekend. Instead, they
will play each other in a non-conference game in the Detroit area
on Thursday, 3/2.
Important tiebreakers:
BGSU > Miami (2-0-1)
BGSU > MSU (2-1-0)
LSSU > BGSU (2-0-0) so far
Miami > MSU (2-0-0) so far
LSSU > Miami (1-1-1, LSSU wins on goals)
MSU > LSSU (2-0-1)
FSU > WMU (3-0-0)
UIC > UND (2-0-0) so far
WMU > UND (2-0-0) so far
UND > OSU (3-0-0)
The battle for Second/Third/Fourth:
BG controls its own destiny. The Falcons' biggest advantage is that they
play Ohio State twice. They have to sweep to maintain control. If BG can beat
OSU twice and FSU, then they will finish ahead of LSSU, even if they lose
to the Lakers. Likewise, if they can get to 36 points, then they will
beat out either Miami or MSU, since both Miami and MSU cannot reach 37
(because they play each other). So, getting 6 of the 8 points remaining is
key for BGSU.
LSSU needs some help to move up in the standings, since they have 1 fewer
game left. Even if they win their last 3, they could still finish 5th if the
other teams win. Since Miami and MSU play once yet, the Lakers have a
chance to catch at least *one* of those two. And since they play BG, they
have a chance to catch them.
Miami's edge is its 4 home games. MSU has 3 on the road and loses the
tiebreakers with Miami and BG (ouch).
In case there are several teams tied with the same number of points,
you compare records against all of the teams involved. In the MSU/Miami/LSSU
three-way, Miami is 3-1-1, LSSU 1-3-2, MSU 2-2-1. If MSU beats Miami, we
even have a tie here (both 3-2-1). The Lakers would finish third among these
3 teams, then you go to Miami/MSU head-to-head to resolve that tie, which
goes to Miami. (So, if the season ended today, Miami would be #3, MSU #4 and
LSSU #5.)
The battle for Sixth/Seventh/Eighth:
FSU and UIC are 1-1-1 with equal GF/GA. The next tiebreaker
is record against the first place team: Michigan. UIC is 1-2
while FSU is 1-1 (third game this Friday). If FSU loses, the next
tiebreaker is record vs the #2 team. UIC is 0-3 vs the current
#2 team while FSU is 1-1. With a 4 point lead and an edge on the
tiebreakers, it looks like the Bulldogs are a good bet to finish 6th.
EXCEPT that they have only 3 games left, all against top teams.
WMU will have to pull off some heroics at Lake Soo to have a chance
at 6th place.
WMU and UIC are 1-1 against each other, with the third game in
two weeks (3/2). WMU has the edge on goals right now, so a WMU win
or a tie gives the Broncos the tiebreaker; a UIC win and the Flames
win the tiebreaker.
Notre Dame cannot finish 7th, since WMU and UIC still have 1 game
left with each other--one of these teams will get to 19 points and
beat UND on the tiebreaker. With MSU and Michigan on the Irish
schedule, it will be VERY tough for them to finish higher than 8th.
Keith
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