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Sun, 16 Feb 2003 20:55:56 -0800 |
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You can tighten these up a little bit by going beyond a "min-max
possibilities" comparison. For example, CC couldn't actually finish
5th, because UND and Mankato can't both have the perfect scenario that
lets them pass CC because they have to play each other (both teams
can't get 4 pts from that same series). Similarly, UMD plays UND and
UMN.
I wrote a program earlier in the season that tries to identify those
interactions between teams and calculates possible finishes. It
currently comes up with this:
CC 37 8 (4) 1st-T3rd
Mankato 31 8 (4) 1st-7th
UMN 29 12 (6) 1st-7th
UND 28 12 (6) 1st-7th
UMD 25 12 (6) T1st-8th
Denver 23 12 (6) 2nd-8th
SCSU 23 12 (6) 2nd-8th
MTech 15 12 (6) 5th-9th
UW 11 12 (6) T6th-9th
AA 6 4 (2) 10th-10th
Assuming that it's working correctly, it managed to tighten up the
possibilities for CC, Denver, and SCSU beyond the simple min-max
analysis. Note also that I'm talking about ranking, not tournament
seeding. CC can enter into a 3-way tie for second (T2nd), which could
theoretically allow them to be seeded as low as 4th if they lost
tiebreakers (which I haven't bothered to figure out).
I'm not quite ready to stake big bucks on these results because the
program is somewhat complex, but I haven't found a glaring error yet.
I've been posting the results of its runs weekly at
http://siouxsports.com/hockey/wchapossibilities.php
Jim
--- Charlie Shub <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> team games to play points can get place range
>
> 1 cc 24 4 37 45 1-5
> 2 mankato 24 4 31 39 1-7
> 3 minnesota 22 6 29 41 1-7
> 4 north dakota 22 6 28 40 1-7
> 5 duluth 22 6 25 37 1-8
> 6 st cloud 22 6 23 35 2-9
> 7 denver 22 6 23 35 2-9
> 8 tech 22 6 15 27 5-9
> 9 wisconsin 22 6 11 23 6-9
> 10 anchorage 26 2 6 10 10
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