Here are the permutations and possible range of finishes for the WCHA,
coming up on the league's final weekend of the regular season. Given that
North Dakota has already wrapped up first place and that Michigan Tech will
finish last, one first-round playoff pairing is all set; the Fighting Sioux
will host the Huskies regardless of this weekend's outcomes (and the two
play each other this weekend as well).
Here's a breakdown of where the other ten teams could finish. For each
team, I've listed the following:
THIS WEEKEND: The team's last two games of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a sweep.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 4 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are more
than those two teams tied.
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the WCHA tiebreakers are:
1. Head-to-head record in WCHA games (non-conference meetings, such as in
tournaments, do not count).
2. Most WCHA wins.
3. Fewest goals allowed head-to-head (used only if the teams played a four-
game series against each other).
4. Goal differential in WCHA games.
Here we go:
Denver:
THIS WEEKEND: St. Cloud State, St. Cloud State.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches second place with a sweep.
BEST CASE: Second.
WORST CASE: Falls to fourth if they lose twice, Minnesota-Duluth beats
and ties Nebraska-Omaha, and Nebraska-Omaha's league goal differential
ends up being larger (currently Nebraska-Omaha has a +25 differential to
Denver's +18)
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Nebraska-Omaha and Minnesota-
Duluth.
Nebraska-Omaha:
THIS WEEKEND: At Minnesota-Duluth, at Minnesota-Duluth.
ON THEIR OWN: Two points guarantees the #3 seed.
BEST CASE: Would finish second with a sweep if Denver does not win
twice.
WORST CASE: Drops to fourth if they lose twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Denver (cannot finish tied with
Minnesota-Duluth).
Minnesota-Duluth:
THIS WEEKEND: Nebraska-Omaha, Nebraska-Omaha
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up third place with three points on the weekend.
BEST CASE: Climbs to second with a sweep if Denver gets no more than one
point.
WORST CASE: Finishes fourth if they get no more than one point.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Denver (cannot finish tied with
Nebraska-Omaha).
Minnesota:
THIS WEEKEND: At Bemidji State, at Bemidji State.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches fifth with two points.
BEST CASE: Fifth.
WORST CASE: Would slide to seventh with two losses if Colorado College
or Wisconsin gets at least three points and St. Cloud State sweeps AND
St. Cloud State's league goal differential ends up being larger
(currently St. Cloud State has a +4 differential to Minnesota's +12)
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colorado; loses to Wisconsin; could win or lose
against St. Cloud State.
Colorado College:
THIS WEEKEND: At Wisconsin, at Wisconsin.
ON THEIR OWN: Two points would give the Tigers sixth place.
BEST CASE: Clinches fifth with a sweep if Minnesota gets no more than
one point.
WORST CASE: Falls to ninth if they lose twice, St. Cloud State gets at
least three points, and Alaska-Anchorage sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats St. Cloud; loses to Minnesota and Alaska-Anchorage
(cannot finish tied with Wisconsin).
Wisconsin:
THIS WEEKEND: Colorado College, Colorado College.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up sixth place with three points on the weekend.
BEST CASE: Rises to fifth with a sweep if Minnesota gets no more than
one point.
WORST CASE: Would finish ninth if they get swept, St. Cloud State gets
at least one point, and Alaska-Anchorage wins twice.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Minnesota; loses to St. Cloud State; could win or
lose against Alaska-Anchorage (cannot finish tied with Colorado College).
St. Cloud State:
THIS WEEKEND: At Denver, at Denver.
ON THEIR OWN: Guarantees the #8 seed with three points.
BEST CASE: Finishes fifth with a sweep if Wisconsin gets exactly three
points and Minnesota loses twice. This would set up a three-way tie
among St. Cloud State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, with the tiebreakers
giving fifth place to the Huskies.
WORST CASE: Drops to ninth if they lose twice and either Alaska-
Anchorage gets at least three points or Minnesota State sweeps.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Wisconsin and Bemidji State; loses to Colorado
College and Minnesota State; could win or lose against Minnesota and
Alaska-Anchorage.
Alaska-Anchorage:
THIS WEEKEND: At Minnesota State, at Minnesota State.
ON THEIR OWN: Can clinch ninth place with three points.
BEST CASE: Gets seventh with a sweep if St. Cloud State gets no more
than one point and either Colorado College loses twice or Wisconsin gets
no more than one point.
WORST CASE: Would finish eleventh with a pair of losses if Bemidji State
gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Colorado College and Minnesota State; could win or
lose against Wisconsin, St. Cloud State, and Bemidji State.
Bemidji State:
THIS WEEKEND: Minnesota, Minnesota.
ON THEIR OWN: A sweep wraps up tenth place.
BEST CASE: Clinches ninth with two wins if Alaska-Anchorage gets exactly
one point.
WORST CASE: Falls to eleventh if they lose twice and Minnesota State
does not.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to St. Cloud; could win or lose against Alaska-
Anchorage and Minnesota State.
Minnesota State:
THIS WEEKEND: Alaska-Anchorage, Alaska-Anchorage
ON THEIR OWN: Guarantees the #10 seed by winning twice.
BEST CASE: Climbs to eighth if they win twice, St. Cloud State loses
twice, and Bemidji State does not sweep.
WORST CASE: Finishes eleventh if they lose twice and Bemidji State does
not.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats St. Cloud; loses to Alaska-Anchorage; could win or
lose against Bemidji State.
Bill Fenwick
[log in to unmask]
|
